A Complete Guide To The Tyreek Hill Trade: Two Years Later, The Trade Is Finally Complete

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The Story Begins

End of Chapter 1

Why Does Everything Have to be So Complicated?

End of Chapter 2

Despite what most think, an NFL trade is not a singular event. Yes, the terms of the agreement are in place and finalized, but the impacts are long reaching and could last for a decade.

So this will be a series (yes, a series!) examining the overall value of the trade, what the Chiefs ultimately gave up and what they gained.

In this sixth part, we see what the trade finally looks like in it’s entirety.

Where We Started

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
2022 #29 (Cole Strange)Tyreek Hill
2022 #50 (Tyquan Thornton)
2022 #121 (Jack Jones)
2023 #122 (Jon Gaines)
2023 #178 (Eric Scott)

Now that the 2024 draft has finished, the Tyreek Hill trade has finally finalized after two years. In this post we’re going to walk through how we got from the trade as it originally existed (see the chart above) to how the trade ended up (see the final chart).

When you look at how the picks originally involved in the trade turned out there are two things that stick out. First, none of those guys did anything. This is the trade from the Dolphins’ perspective, and there’s no doubt that they’re much happier with Tyreek Hill than they would be with that group of draft busts.

Secondly, none of those guys play for the Chiefs. That’s right, the Chiefs traded away every single pick the Dolphins gave them for Hill. As we go through the various trades, those picks will all cancel out in the accounting. Any draft pick that gets cancelled out I’ll list as “draft pick (player)”, and any pick that ends up being in the final table I’ll list as “player (draft pick)”.

2022 Draft

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Trent McDuffie (2022 Pick 21)2022 Pick 29 (Cole Strange)
Matt Corral (2022 Pick 94)
2022 Pick 121 (Jack Jones)
Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Sky Moore (2022 Pick 54)2022 Pick 50 (Tyquan Thornton)
2022 Pick 158 (Tyreke Smith)
Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Darian Kinnard (2022 Pick 145)2022 Pick 158 (Tyreke Smith)
Dareke Young (2022 Pick 233)

During the 2022 draft the Chiefs made 3 trades involving picks from the Tyreek Hill trade. The biggest one was trading up for Trent McDuffie. That was a clear winner, as McDuffie has become an All-Pro player while those other three guys have done little to nothing.

Amazingly the Chiefs also won the Skyy Moore trade. Most people consider it bad because they could have stayed and selected George Pickens, which is true. But when you look at the picks in isolation Moore has actually been better than Tyquan Thornton. Plus we got an extra pick on top of it! Although that last trade didn’t mean much. Kinnard seems like he’ll be lucky to even be getting paychecks from an NFL team this year. On the other hand, Dereke Young isn’t much better (he pretty much just plays special teams in Seattle). The pick that turned into Tyreke Smith cancels out so it doesn’t matter for the overall accounting, but for this individual trade he is in the same boat as Kinnard and Young, as he already played for multiple teams and has a mere 19 snaps on defense.

2023 Draft

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Rashee Rice (2023 Pick 55)Marvin Mims (2023 Pick 63)
Keondre Coburn (2023 Pick 194)2023 Pick 122 (Jon Gaines II)
Moro Ojomo (2023 Pick 249)
Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Hunter Nourzad (2024 Pick 159)2023 Pick 178 (Eric Scott Jr.)

There were 2 trades involving Tyreek Hill picks in the 2023 draft. Most notably was the Chiefs trading up for Rashee Rice, the big names here being Rice of course and Mims. Everybody else is the NFL equivalent of a rounding error (Coburn is already on his 3rd team in his 2nd season, Jon Gaines has literally not taken a regular season snap, and Ojomo has 3 career tackles as a DT for the Eagles). Mims started his rookie season hot, but did almost nothing for most of the season. He ended up being mostly a returner (where he actually made the Pro Bowl). There is no doubt that Rice is the better player, but whether the Chiefs clearly won this trade depends on whether Rice can control himself and stay out of trouble.

The second trade was annoying for me, as the Cowboys traded back into the 2023 draft by giving up a 2024 pick, delaying the conclusion of the Tyreek Hill trade by a year. Eric Scott did absolutely nothing as a rookie, literally not even seeing the field for a single snap. It remains to be seen how much Nourzad will contribute, but the bar is as low as it can be for the Chiefs to win this trade.

The Final Tally

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Trent McDuffieTyreek Hill
Skyy MooreMatt Corral
Darian KinnardDareke Young
Rashee RiceMarvin Mims
Keondre CoburnMoro Ojomo
Hunter Nourzad

And here’s the trade with everything accounted for!

The Chiefs clearly got some quality return, mostly in the form of McDuffie and Rice (Nourzad pending) without giving up much of value besides Hill himself (Mims is the only player that you can even debate is a quality contributor). But Hill is so good, and at a position that the NFL has increasingly valued in recent years, that some would argue that it still wasn’t enough to make up for Hill.

However, I would counter argue that the $96.5 million over 5 years that the Chiefs have saved makes it an easy win for the Chiefs.

What makes it funny is that, as mentioned earlier, from the Dolphins’ perspective they also clearly won the trade. The only reason the Chiefs won the trade as well is because Veach expertly converted those picks into valuable players using trades. Now not every decision was perfect, but it was the Patriots who were the big losers of the trade, giving away picks that turned into quality players in exchange for those Dolphins picks that the Patriots then squandered. I think both Dolphins fans and Chiefs fans can be happy about that outcome!

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05/15/2024 2:24 pm

The dolphins not winning the last 2 years with Hills lower cap hit makes them losers. They kept his cap hit down the last 2 years. Now their qb is up for a new contract and Hill’s cap number and dead cap the next 3 years are 31 mill (50+mill), 34 mill (22mill), and 55 mill (11 mill). Those arent small numbers.

05/15/2024 2:07 pm

Excellent work Tony! This should be printed in Sports Illustrated or something.

Reply to  MasterChief
05/15/2024 2:22 pm

Considering SI stopped print, it is as possible as any other article on the subject

Reply to  NovaChiefs
05/15/2024 2:25 pm

Oh. How about the KC Star?

Reply to  MasterChief
05/15/2024 3:41 pm

I think he should contact them and offer it.
Stop all the political nonsense, get a press pass, and be our inside source at the Chiefs

05/15/2024 11:10 am

I still believe before his career over that T. Hill will return to the Chiefs on a 1-year deal.

His current contact runs out with Miami after 2026 season.

05/15/2024 11:05 am

If you go just by players (and you can’t because, like you said, the money saved did more than just pay these guys), the trade isn’t really over yet.
There are only 2 players we got, McDuffie and Rice, that are currently clear winners. With Rice’s “issues”, he might turn out to be a loss, too. If he gets cut, we only hit on McDuffie. Hill is still “better” than McDuffie, but as we have seen, less important to us.
Two titles in two years since Hill left is the biggest win. Two players we got have been very important in those titles, even if one might not be in the next one.
Clear winner to the Chiefs.

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