A Complete Guide To The Tyreek Hill Trade: The Story Begins

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Prelude

Despite what most think, an NFL trade is not a singular event. Yes, the terms of the agreement are in place and finalized, but the impacts are long reaching and could last for a decade.

So this will be a series (yes, a series!) examining the overall value of the trade, what the Chiefs ultimately gave up and what they gained.

In this second part, we can finally start the story of the men who we got in return for Tyreek Hill, putting names to what before were only numbers.

The Draft

On March 23rd, a sudden and shocking announcement was made. Tyreek Hill would no longer be a Chief. With the wide receiver market being hotter than expected, the Chiefs could no longer afford to sign him, so they sent him to Miami in return for a small army of draft picks.

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
2022 #29Tyreek Hill
2022 #50
2022 #121
2023 4th
2023 6th

Most were upset. It’s hard to view losing a star player as a good thing when the return is just an intangible list of numbers. But a month later the draft arrived, and those numbers eventually got names and faces and YouTube highlight videos.

Life is never so easy, though, as the 29th, 50th, and 121st picks are not Kansas City Chiefs. Instead, through a series of trades, they are New England Patriots. We’ll have to do a bit of work to figure out what exactly the Chiefs got (and what they gave up).

Trade #1

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Trent McDuffie (Pick 21)Pick 29
Matt Corral (Pick 94)
Pick 121

(For these trades, I’m not going to include the names of players for picks that ended up getting canceled out in the wash. If there’s a name, they will end up in the final accounting.)

The first trade was on the first day of the draft, as the Chiefs moved up with the Patriots to acquire Trent McDuffie. Of the 3 picks the Chiefs gave up, 2 were ones acquired in the Hill trade, so they end up cancelling each other out. The third pick (the third round, 94 overall) was eventually sent to the Panthers, who selected quarterback Matt Corral. For our accounting we have to count him as a player the Chiefs gave up, thus he lands in the Giveth column.

Trade #2

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Sky Moore (Pick 54)Pick 50
Pick 158

The second trade was on the second day, as Veach used the last of the 2022 Hill trade picks to trade back a couple spots with the Patriots, picking up a free 5th round pick while still being able to select Skyy Moore. Pick 50 gets cancelled out, and picks 54 and 158 get added to the Taketh column. But life isn’t so easy, as pick 158 isn’t a Kansas City Chief either.

Trade #3

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Darian Kinnard (Pick 145)Pick 158
Dareke Young(Pick 233)

The last trade was on the last day, as we took that free pick from the Patriots, packaged it with one of our many 7th rounders (frankly too many) to move up and select Darian Kinnard. While pick 158 got canceled (as we only owned it for 24 hours), we do have to include pick 233 (which Seattle used on receiver Dareke Young) into the Giveth column.

And after three days of furiously trading these excess picks, we end up with our (almost) final answer.

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Trent McDuffieTyreek Hill
Skyy MooreMatt Corral
Darian KinnardDareke Young
2023 4th
2023 6th

We will have to wait until next year’s draft to get the final official list, but since those picks are later in the draft, we can confidently say we have our main protagonists.

The Money

   Chiefs Taketh    Chiefs Giveth  Net Cap Gain
YearTrent McDuffieSkyy MooreDarian Kinnard2023 4th2023 6thTotal Cap HitTyreek HillMatt CorralDareke YoungTotal Cap HitNet Cap Gain
20222.51.3850.925--2.0556.2350.9650.7357.9355.88
20233.1231.7311.090.9340.764.22831.21.210.933.3129.082
20243.752.0771.2051.0990.9254.98724.8651.451.01527.3322.343
20254.3722.4241.321.2141.045.571428.0351.691.1330.85525.2836
20261.3291.1552.4845.15.12.616

The trade wasn’t just for draft picks, though. When you plug in the projected cap hits for all involved, you see the Chiefs saved a buttload of cap space, particularly for the 3 years from 2023 to 2025. Even more than the draft picks, cap space tends to be a hard-to-grasp intangible number. I don’t know about you, but I’ve never seen cap space catch a long touchdown pass.

As part of this story, I will do my best to convert that cap space into real, tangible players. It’s difficult as it will never be a perfect match. I was hoping the Chiefs would sign another free agent to make it easier, but it looks like what we have now is the best we get. At this point, a new signing will only be a one to two year deal anyway.

So, like in the prelude, I will use Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Reid as the cap space fill-ins. With that, the full trade as it stands now looks like this.

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingTyreek Hill
Justin ReidMatt Corral
Trent McDuffieDareke Young
Skyy Moore
Darian Kinnard
2023 4th
2023 6th

Appendix: The Full Accounting

(For the love of God, skip this part.)

    Chiefs Taketh     Chiefs Giveth  Net Cap Gain
YearTrent McDuffieSkyy MooreDarian Kinnard2023 4th2023 6thJustin ReidMarquez Valdes-ScantlingTotal Cap HitTyreek HillMatt CorralDareke YoungTotal Cap HitNet Cap Gain
20222.51.3850.925--4.554.8814.3556.2350.9650.7357.935-6.42
20233.1231.7311.090.9340.7612.71131.51631.21.210.933.311.794
20243.752.0771.2051.0990.92514.251437.54724.8651.451.01527.33-10.217
20254.3722.4241.321.2141.0410.591428.0351.691.1330.85520.2636
20261.3291.1552.4845.15.12.616

For those who want to see all the nitty-gritty details of how adding Valdes-Scantling and Reid to the equation looks like, I have shown my full work.

The biggest problem is that both of those guys are on 3 year deals, while Hill is on a 4-year deal (assuming the Dolphins cut, trade, or extend him instead of paying his absurd 2026 number). This makes it so that 2024 is way in the red, while 2025 is way in the black.

While I’ll keep it as is for now (as it would be wildly unbalanced if you removed one of them), I plan on replacing one of them next offseason when we sign somebody who will hopefully make the numbers fit a lot better.

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Berserker
Berserker
05/07/2022 4:53 pm

Herschel Walker. Has anybody said Herschel Walker yet? I feel like somebody probably has said Herschel Walker already. But anyhow….Herschel Walker.

You’ve created a fantastic and clearly stated foundation here. It’s going to be fascinating to see how it continues to play out. Have you already considered trying to compare stats or snap counts?

upamtn
05/07/2022 9:28 am

Veach done good

so did you, Tony, thank you!

NovaChiefs
05/05/2022 6:46 pm

Tony,

This is the kind of article that can make this place a “gotta read” destination.
Really well done.

BleedingRedAndGold
Reply to  NovaChiefs
05/05/2022 8:01 pm

FWIW, stay tuned, because I’ve got a nice piece from Nate lined up for tomorrow, and one of my own waiting in the wings. Of course, that’s three wildly different approaches, but they are all Chiefs content.

cotton_don
05/05/2022 6:32 pm

Thanks for this, it’s a great write-up.
We traded in the 1st with New England and then in the 2nd with New England – does anyone know if those two trades were actually one trade announced separately? It’s interesting to contemplate it as one large trade.

cotton_don
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/05/2022 7:17 pm

I take your point. However, New England traded up to 50 to draft Tyquan Thornton, a player who almost certainly would have been there at 54… Just saying.

Berserker
Berserker
Reply to  cotton_don
05/06/2022 4:39 pm

Not necessarily. Two other tall-and-fast WRs went between 50 and 54, Pickens and Alec Pierce.

Seems like the difference is that NE decided Thornton was definitely the best of that bunch, and KC decided that any of them would work well for the Chiefs (or knew that the other teams were only going after the tall guys).

hoosierchief
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/05/2022 4:04 pm

How can they cut a Purdue guy??!!!

NovaChiefs
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/05/2022 6:47 pm

Who are the “Cheifs”?

Chiefs_all-in
Chiefs_all-in
05/05/2022 1:14 pm

Excellent write up. It helps put everything in perspective. I kinda understood it before, and I never felt panic when hill was traded. I expected a big name to be traded, and really felt like it might have been Jones. Hill was definitely a surprise, but immediately made more sense because of a loaded offense. Without it though it would have taken longer to rebuild the defense. I still think it will take one more draft to rebuild the defense, if we get good production out of our early round picks.

NovaChiefs
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/05/2022 2:14 pm

I’m going to be the “glass half full” guy for once.
I also think that getting rid of Hill (sounds harsher than I mean it) has the POTENTIAL to make Mahomes even better than we have seen. He still has Kelce to fall back on, but now he has to see the entire field. He has to see Hardman running free & not miss him because he’s looking for the Big Two. He has to learn to trust the “other guys”.
If that happens, look out. If the Defensive draft pans out, we are going to be a serious force for years yet.

upamtn
Reply to  NovaChiefs
05/07/2022 9:30 am

this this this x a million

(and noted same thing on Nate’s incredible post)

ArrowFan
ArrowFan
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/05/2022 11:30 am

The $$$ is the big difference I think everyone would say they would rather have Hill than anyone else straight up. But the problem is if you want Hill it costs you a lot of the available cap.

upamtn
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/07/2022 9:31 am

I’ll take MVS (and Juju) and Skye over Hill and Who? anytime … all things considered

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