A Complete Guide To The Tyreek Hill Trade: End of Chapter 2

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Prelude

The Story Begins

End of Chapter 1

Why Does Everything Have to be So Complicated?

Despite what most think, an NFL trade is not a singular event. Yes, the terms of the agreement are in place and finalized, but the impacts are long reaching and could last for a decade.

So this will be a series (yes, a series!) examining the overall value of the trade, what the Chiefs ultimately gave up and what they gained.

In this fifth part, we see how both teams have enjoyed their return.

A Quick Review

The trade became quite complicated after the last draft, so I broke down the players in the trade into 3 categories; Busts, Receivers, and Defense

Group 1: Busts

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Darian KinnardMatt Corral

Group 2: Receivers

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingTyreek Hill
Skyy MooreDareke Young
Rashee RiceMarvin Mims

Group 3: Defense

Chiefs TakethChiefs Giveth
Trent McDuffieMoro Ojomo
Charles Omenihu
Keondre Coburn

The busts have remained busts. Kinnard has been bouncing on and off the practice squad and has yet to take a regular season offensive snap (he had 6 special team snaps in 2022). Matt Corral looks like he’s officially out of the league with even less impact, as he has never taken a regular season snap.

The receiver groups was interesting going into the season. Hill is clearly far and away the best player on either side, but despite MVS and Skyy disappointing it’s not that big of a blowout in favor of the Giveth side, as they are both arguably better than Mims (Dareke Young has 2 career receptions, so he doesn’t matter to the accounting). Mims started this season hot, with 242 yards in his first 4 games. But after that he was even more invisible than MVS and Skyy, only having two games with more than 16 receiving yards (for comparison MVS had more than 16 yards each in the final 3 playoff games). I don’t think they come even close to making up the difference between Hill and Rice, but they make it close enough for the defense to make up for it.

Ojomo had 68 defensive snaps this season for the Eagles, having a stat sheet containing 3 tackles to his name, which makes him slightly worse than Coburn who had 107 snaps, resulting in 8 tackles including a tackle for loss. Most of that was with Tennessee though, so as far as the Chiefs are concerned they pretty much cancel out for now. That means that, within a rounding error, for the 2023 season the Tyreek Hill trade was downgrading from Hill to Rice and getting McDuffie and Omenihu in compensation. That is pretty good in my opinion. Rice has developed into a quality receiver, and getting an All-Pro corner who was key in the Super Bowl plus a pass rusher who helped significantly in the playoffs before getting injured is exactly what you want in a trade like this.

What’s Coming Up

There are two main events coming up that will effect the trade.

First is free agency. It seems highly likely that the Chiefs will cut MVS and clear $12 million in cap space for 2024. They are also likely to make at least one decently large free agent signing. The new free agent signing will hopefully fit nicely into the cap space calculations to make a good comparison in the trade.

Second is the draft. Unfortunately they traded a 6th from the Hill trade last year for Dallas’ 5th this year to make things complicated for me, so that player will be added to the accounting in a couple of months. If they trade that pick again I will be very upset.

Appendix: The Full Accounting

The total accounting table has gotten far too large to comfortable show on this page, so instead I’ll link to my super secret Google Doc where I’ve been keeping track of the math. If you really want to get into the weeds that’s where to go.

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upamtn
02/19/2024 12:02 pm

first you get 27 StarZ

now I gots to read all the previous posts, so I’ll be back in a few hours …

can’t wait to see how it all ends 🙂

upamtn
Reply to  upamtn
02/19/2024 12:17 pm

so, when you factor in MVS, Justin Reid, AND Trent McDuffie AND Rashee Rice AND Omenihu (plus Kinnard & Coburn & Moore, oh my!) and still get cap space … yeah, BV done alright

and I wouldn’t mind MVS returning as #2 (or #3) on a smaller deal: maybe save us $5M to “see red and think super bowl” … and he DID up his game in the playoffs

Last edited 1 month ago by upamtn
Straybrit
Reply to  upamtn
02/19/2024 1:14 pm

MVS just about drove me crazy this season until post-Raiders. Then it started to make sense (to me anyway). Hear me out – then you can tell me I’m full of it,
Our catchers are on a spectrum of understanding of space, defenses and throws.
At one end you have Kelce that can make up successful routes on the fly and make them so good that Pat can follow them live. Clearly this is other-worldly and should not be the expected state.
At the other end you have Moore who seems to have issues telling right from left and, I suspect, has trouble with anything more intellectually complex than cashing his pay check.
MVS seems to have a sweet spot in “run very quickly to here, catch this despite having very large men trying to maim you”. Once his part in the offense was reduced to that then he was great(er).
Rice is interesting in that he’s clearly spent a lot of time with Kelce trying to figure things out. I don’t think he’ll ever get to Kelce’s level but he’s got the trajectory.
I wonder if it was Nagy or Andy that finally gave in and tailored the plan to the limitations of the players as opposed to expecting them to just do it.

upamtn
Reply to  Straybrit
02/19/2024 2:22 pm

100% heard and agreed

remember Kelce was a QB back in the day (like HS) so he knows Man vs Zone concepts to start with, and thinks like a QB “as a WR” … Rice, IIRC, was with Mahomes in Texas BEFORE the draft: working out, learning how to be a pro (it paid off)

wonder if it was Nagy or Andy that finally gave in and tailored the plan to the limitations of the players

it was the entire team … Big Red actually thanked the Raiders HC for the “wake up call” and the players had themselves a little tete-a-tete to discuss a few things

the players got it right, the coaches got it right … Dolphins, @Bills, @Ravens, Niners … the results speak for themselves, and the players, and the coaches

(it was fun, let’s do it again … same time next year, please)

DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  upamtn
02/20/2024 1:19 pm

Im pretty sure kelce was a qb at Cincinnati before he switched over to TE. Got some snaps his freshman year before the pot bust.

Team Player
Reply to  Straybrit
02/19/2024 2:38 pm

Pretty much nailed it.

Not a good fit for the offense – in season you change the system. Off season you (usually) change the players

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