Tony’s Picks: Week 14

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.

 

Last week: 11-2

Overall: 125-68

Home Teams (Benchmark): 106-87

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 125-66-2

This week: 15-0

STEELERS (-6) over Patriots

My picks were looking good last week, as I was 11-0 heading into SNF with needing just the Chiefs and Jags to win as big favorites to close out a perfect week. What happened after that? I don’t want to talk about it…

It’s hard to believe a team led by Trubisky is a 6 point favorite over anybody. But on the flip side it’s hard to believe the Patriots are only 6 point road underdogs against a 7-5 team. Personally I think Trubisky is better than Pickett, so this is an easy pick.

FALCONS (-2.5) over Buccaneers

Boy this is a tough game to call. Is there really much of a difference between these two teams? I guess I’ll go with the home team here.

Lions (-3.5) over BEARS

I’m a surprised that the Lions are barely favored by more than a field goal over the Bears, even if it is on the road. Detroit should wipe the floor with them.

Colts (-1) over BENGALS

Jake Browning has actually not looked too bad. In fact, if he keeps putting up numbers like he has the last two weeks it’s going to make people wonder if Burrow is really all that good or if it’s the weapons propping him up. If I was a Bengals fan I’d almost be cheering for Browning to suck because of the implications if he’s able to match Burrow in the same system.

BROWNS (-3) over Jaguars

At first I wondered how the Browns could possibly be favored, then I remembered that Trevor Lawrence got hurt. After the game I assumed he’d be fine, but it looks like he’ll either miss the game or be severely impacted if he does play. Not to mention backup CJ Beathard is also dealing with an injury.

As much as I loathe to do it, I’m picking the Browns here. They’re the better team outside of QB, and they might not even have a QB disadvantage this game.

SAINTS (-5) over Panthers

Can we all just ignore the NFC South? Just pick a non-Panthers team at random to give a real playoff team a free win and we can use our time talking about teams that matter. I mean even the Panthers don’t matter as much since they can’t even get the top pick!

Texans (-5.5) over JETS

So the Jets wised up and went back to Zach Wilson. That actually makes them a dangerous team and a legit threat to win this game. The Texans are a good team, but only because of CJ Stroud. If the Jets defense can contain him this game could be ugly, and that’s exactly the kind of game they need for Zach Wilson to be able to win.

RAVENS (-7) over Rams

This is a must-win game for the Ravens. They are in good position to get the top seed in the AFC, but that will require them to perform extremely well against a lot of very good teams. They can’t afford to drop games to vastly inferior teams like the Rams.

RAIDERS over Vikings (-3)

Joshua Dobbs has had an incredibly season given the circumstances he was put in and the fact that he used to suck. But the last two games he’s come back down to Earth a bit, so I’m going to assume that he’s back to his old level of play. The Raiders aren’t great, but they should be able to beat a bad version of Joshua Dobbs.

49ERS (-10.5) over Seahawks

I can’t believe the 49ers are double-digit favorites over a solid team like Seattle. I know they’ve been awesome lately, but that is a very aggressive spread.

CHIEFS (-2.5) over Bills

Like the Ravens, the Chiefs have to win this game if they want any realistic chance of getting the top seed. We probably had one loss to give before last week, as the Ravens and Dolphins are likely to lose another game each the rest of the way. But one of them will likely only lose one game, or Jacksonville will win out, so we have to win out the rest of the way. The good news is that, unlike the Ravens, we’re very likely to at least win our division no matter how this game goes.

The other good news is that the Bills are far and away the toughest opponent left on the schedule. The bad news is that’s partly because they’re a legit good team despite their record. I am picking the Chiefs, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we suffer back-to-back losses for the first time in years.

CHARGERS (-3) over Broncos

If the Chargers win this game, the division is all but over. Even if we lost to the Bills, we would be up 2 games with 4 to go with an incredibly easy schedule left. And the Chargers should win, as the Broncos aren’t near as good as their record would indicate. Then again, they’ve won based on turnovers and turning the ball over is the Chargers favorite pastime.

COWBOYS (-3) over Eagles

I am absolutely floored that the Cowboys are favored. I picked them last time and felt like a lone voice in the wild, but now that they changed the venue suddenly I’m with the majority?

In other news apparently David Carr said that the Eagles should bench Hurts for Mariota. I’m a bit of a Hurts hater, but this is a horrible take. Hurts is the better quarterback and it’s not even close.

DOLPHINS (-13) over Titans

This is a massive line, but it’s hard to disagree. The Dolphins enjoy blowing out weaker teams like the Titans. Tyreek Hill might solidify himself as the first non-QB MVP in what seems like forever if they allow him to run all over the Titans.

Packers (-6.5) over GIANTS

I don’t think that Packers win over the Chiefs was a fluke. Ok it was a little bit of a fluke, the Chiefs are the better team and would beat the Packers 6 or 7 times in a 10 game series. But this wasn’t a fluke like the Broncos loss. Love has finally found his mojo and the Packers are a serious threat to anybody, let alone the Giants who have no quarterback.

 

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Tyrone
12/07/2023 12:28 pm

Why is von Miller not on the commissioners exempt list?

upamtn
12/07/2023 11:36 am

oh yeah, it’s that time of the week …

last week I foolishly picked the Steelers to beat the Cards … lost that one, so now 2 up on Tony since I started picking (week two)

BENGALS over Colts – Browning looked good, far better than anyone on the Colts so I’m a go with the Bengals

Jags over BROWNS – even with Beathard the Jags are better than the hot mess known as Cleveland

Team Player
Reply to  upamtn
12/07/2023 11:43 am

Hate to say it but I’m thinking the Bills are going to win this week. Chiefs flaws and injuries match up poorly against the Bills.

upamtn
Reply to  Team Player
12/07/2023 2:26 pm

if Bolton is back and hopefully Tranquill … AND if the WRs can catch ANYTHING then KC *might* win …

in KC yes? yes! We’ve got this (I hope)

upamtn
Reply to  upamtn
12/11/2023 9:41 pm

well, that was a wash

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