Post-Draft NFL Power Rankings

 56 replies

The official Arrowhead Guys NFL Power Rankings.

 

Tier 1: The Super Bowl Contenders


1: Kansas City Chiefs (Week 18: 1)
2: Green Bay Packers (Week 18: 2)

The Chiefs and Packers are very similar. Obviously both have superstar quarterbacks, but they also both traded away their star receiver leading to them having a lot more draft capital than normal for a contender. But on the whole the Chiefs handled their situation much better than the Packers did.

For one, the Chiefs got much more in their trade than the Packers did. The Chiefs got a small army of draft picks that gave them an extra pick in the first 3 rounds (before trades), while the Packers merely got a 1st and 2nd, and even squandered that 2nd by combining it with their original one to trade up in the 2nd round.

But the other major difference is that the Chiefs actually replaced their major losses. When you look at players who contracts averaged $10 million per year, the Chiefs lost a wide receiver (Hill), a safety (Mathieu), and a corner (Charvarius Ward), but added a wide receiver (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), a safety (Justin Reid), and drafted a corner 21st overall. The Packers on the hand replaced their three major loss (receivers Adams and Valdes-Scantling, and edge rusher Za’Darius Smith) with a 2nd round pick (receiver Christian Watson), a 4th round pick (receiver Romeo Doubs), and a 5th round pick (edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare).

While the Packers did obviously use their two 1st round picks at other positions, they made no major free agent additions. Their biggest offseason signing was former Chief Jarran Reed who got a 1-year $3.25 million deal.

Both teams fortunes will be largely determined by the quality of their rookies, but the Chiefs have positioned themselves to be in a much stronger situation with a much higher ceiling. The only reason the Packers are this high is because of Aaron Rodgers.

3: Buffalo Bills (Week 18: 6)
4: Los Angeles Rams (Week 18: 3)
5: Indianapolis Colts (Week 18: 12)
6: Los Angeles Chargers (Week 18: 8)

The Bills are getting a lot of hype, and I can understand why. The conventional wisdom is that Josh Allen is the newest elite quarterback and the Bills added Von Miller and his new gigacontract to an already top tier defense. And while I agree to some extent (I mean I have them ranked 3rd which is really good) like a NIMBY at a city council meeting I have some concerns. 

Firstly, while He did have a nice 2020 season, watching him on film back then I felt it was a bit of a fluke. And sure enough he reverted somewhat (although not nearly as bad as his first two seasons) to have an almost exactly league-average 6.38 ANY/A. That’s not elite.

But also defense can be very swingy. An elite defense one year can become mediocre the next. In Buffalo’s case you have to wonder how much of that elite defense was due to simply playing an easy schedule. They played four games against Mahomes, Brady, Tannehill, and Matt Ryan, but other than that their other 13 opponents had very subpar quarterback play. 

So while I do think they’ll be good, I don’t think they’re quite as good as everybody seems to think.

Tier 2: The Playoff Contenders

 

7: San Francisco 49ers (Week 18: 14)
8: Baltimore Ravens (Week 18: 15)
9: Las Vegas Raiders (Week 18: 18)
10: Cincinnati Bengals (Week 18: 9)
11: Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 18: 13)

It’s surprising how little love the Bengals are getting. They just went to the Super Bowl with a young core who should continue to improve, so why is everybody treating them as just another team?

I can’t speak for others, but in my opinion they’re a bit of a paper tiger (pun intended). The three playoff games they won were all incredibly close. The Raiders score a touchdown at the end of the game and suddenly the Bengals have nothing but another playoff loss on their resume. 

Perhaps the biggest bold take of my rankings is the Steelers, but is Trubisky really any worse than Roethlisberger was last year? I know he’ll always go down as the guy the Bears traded up one spot for while Mahomes was still on the board, but he’s not a complete dumpster fire. If the Steelers had a winning record last year I don’t see why they can’t have a winning record again this year.

12: Philadelphia Eagles (Week 18: 16)
13: Cleveland Browns (Week 18: 17)
14: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 18: 4)
15: Dallas Cowboys (Week 18: 5) 
16: Tennessee Titans (Week 18: 7)
17: New England Patriots (Week 18: 10)
18: Arizona Cardinals (Week 18: 11)

I have the Bucs way lower than everybody else mostly because of Brady’s statement before their playoff game against the Rams last year where he basically said they were going to lose and that he was going to retire. Now he did come back from retirement, but I have to wonder if it was because he planned on getting traded to Miami before lawsuits got in the way. 

Speculation aside, I have a hard time believing he would release a statement like that unless he could plainly see the other team was vastly superior. And he knows a lot more about the state of the team than I do, so I’m going to believe him.

19: Seattle Seahawks (Week 18: 22)
20: Denver Broncos (Week 18: 23)

I know this is a shockingly low ranking for the Broncos, and I was about to put them in the top 10 along with everybody else until I started looking at some stats.

So the question become, will Wilson actually improve the Bronco’s passing offense? And even if it improves a bit, is it going to be enough of an improvement to really significantly improve a team who lost Von Miller?

Maybe he will come in and dominate and I’ll be forced to raise them in the rankings. But right now I think it’s more likely they disappoint.

Tier 3: The Less-Than-Good Teams

 

21: Miami Dolphins (Week 18: 19)
22: New Orleans Saints (Week 18: 20)
23: Minnesota Vikings (Week 18: 21)
24: Washington Football Team (Week 18: 25)
25: Carolina Panthers (Week 18: 26)

I don’t understand why the Dolphins were so eager to mortgage their future for Tyreek Hill when they may be looking to trade up for a quarterback next year. I guess the argument is that you want to surround him with talent to give him the best shot to prove himself, but it’s not like they were terrible at receiver last year. DeVante Parker is a great player. Hill is better but if Tua couldn’t succeed with Parker why would he suddenly become a franchise guy when they replace him with Hill?

Tier 4: The Terrible Teams

 

26: Detroit Lions (Week 18: 27)
27: New York Jets (Week 18: 31)
28: Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 18: 32)
29: New York Giants (Week 18: 29)

30: Houston Texans (Week 18: 30)
31: Chicago Bears (Week 18: 28)
32: Atlanta Falcons (Week 18: 24)

Houston has a bright future with so many draft picks coming from the Browns in the near future, but for now they’re struggling under the weight of Deshaun Watson’s dead cap hit. The best thing they can do is lose and make sure they’re in a prime position to draft a new quarterback of the future next spring. 

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larch
05/09/2022 4:58 pm

I’m trying to stifle my excitement over the Chiefs draft haul. I do think that haul supports the #1 ranking.

Question: could Thuney play right tackle? If so then plug Kinnard in at LG if he’s better suited. That leaves Wylie and Remmers and Niang and Allegretti (+…) as backup.

Last edited 1 month ago by larch
zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  larch
05/09/2022 5:00 pm

I don think we want Thuney anywhere but LG

larch
Reply to  zulu trader
05/09/2022 5:03 pm

I’m guessing same, doesn’t hurt to consider options but you’re probably right.

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  larch
05/09/2022 5:04 pm

you’re right — this is the time of year that we think about moving Thuney

Leaf
Reply to  zulu trader
05/09/2022 5:19 pm

I don’t know why everyone thinks Kinnard needs to go inside. It’s great if he can (having versatility is always a as good thing), but all reports out of arrowhead is he’s there for RT. It’s everyone else that seems to want to plug him inside

upamtn
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 5:24 pm

this^^^

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 5:24 pm

he’s here for RT or swing tackle

larch
Reply to  larch
05/09/2022 5:01 pm

BTW is Alegretti the backup centre now?

Budahmon
Budahmon
Reply to  larch
05/09/2022 8:59 pm

Yes…I believe he is.

Leaf
05/09/2022 3:02 pm

It’s surprising how little love the Bengals are getting.

i guess it’s a tad surprising they aren’t a bit higher, but they aren’t all that of a team to begin with. They are good, but they lucked into a lot of things to get to the SB last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they missed the playoffs next year

upamtn
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 3:13 pm

OTOH they could win it all …that’s why they play the games

NovaChiefs
Reply to  upamtn
05/09/2022 3:14 pm

No they can’t. We’re going to. Can’t have two winners

upamtn
Reply to  NovaChiefs
05/09/2022 3:23 pm

I admire your hopeful optimism, if not your lack of realism 😉

NovaChiefs
Reply to  upamtn
05/09/2022 5:18 pm

It’s the preseason. If you’re not SB bound, take up another sport.

upamtn
Reply to  NovaChiefs
05/09/2022 5:25 pm

World Series here we come!

upamtn
Reply to  NovaChiefs
05/09/2022 5:27 pm

FYI: someone using your name posted the following …

Even as a homer, we don’t get into the top 3. Too many unknowns with losing Hill.

Talk to me again after 6 games. We may indeed be back on top

NovaChiefs
Reply to  upamtn
05/09/2022 5:44 pm

The bastard! The dirty dog!

Leaf
Reply to  upamtn
05/09/2022 3:17 pm

True. Any given Sunday. But I wouldn’t bet my hard earned money on it

Leaf
05/09/2022 2:23 pm

See? Football talk 😜

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 2:30 pm

Football talk? Abort! Abort!

zulu trader
zulu trader
05/09/2022 1:30 pm

The Chiefs at number one? I don’t see it

MasterChief
MasterChief
Reply to  zulu trader
05/09/2022 2:47 pm

I would put us in the top 4 (maybe #3), but I’m not sure about #1. We haven’t seen what the new offense is going to look like yet.

Budahmon
Budahmon
Reply to  MasterChief
05/09/2022 3:06 pm

#5….Bills, Rams, Bucs, Bengals,…ahead of them. Why the Bengals? Lost to them twice..you are what your record says you are.

Leaf
Reply to  Budahmon
05/09/2022 3:08 pm

Record doesn’t tell the whole story

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Budahmon
05/09/2022 3:46 pm

I understand with the Bengals but we beat the Bills so why are we behind them?

Rams are old and getting older. Same with Bucs. It wouldn’t surprise me if both of them missed the playoffs.

Personally I think we are better than the Bengals. First game was lost on flukey penalties. Second game was flukey too.

rip58
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
05/09/2022 4:26 pm

I’ve got us at number one as well, still think Andy’s still a step ahead of everyone out there..

MasterChief
MasterChief
Reply to  Budahmon
05/09/2022 5:11 pm

All of those teams are maybes just like we are, so I’m putting us in the top 4.

Bengals? Lots of teams have a good year and fade. We’ll see what happens with them.

Bucs? At some point, Brady is going to be too old. I’ve been saying that for 7 years or so. Maybe this will be the year.

Rams? They are good, but not sure they’ll make it back.

Bills? We beat them 2 years in a row, late in the playoffs. I put the Chiefs over them.

Chiefs? Lost Tyreek, but our Defense should be better. The offense is an unknown; it may be amazing for all we know. We still have Mahomes, Kelce, and Andy Reid.

Budahmon
Budahmon
Reply to  MasterChief
05/09/2022 9:09 pm

The only reason the Chiefs won last year vs the Bills was Reek. The start of the season these 4 teams should be considered ahead of the Chiefs due to the changes the Chiefs have made. It’s going to take time for a young D and new offense to get acclimated. So all those teams should be rated ahead of the Chiefs.

Leaf
Reply to  MasterChief
05/09/2022 3:07 pm

The problem there is all the other teams went through changes too. So why do they get a pass and are graded on last year, but the chiefs are in “let’s wait and see mode”…. Never mind, we are from Missouri. It makes total sense.

NovaChiefs
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 3:16 pm

Because…Chiefs.
Same reason that any other team not called The Jets with a 10pt lead is a lock to win, but us with a 10pt lead is Pepto time.

Last edited 1 month ago by NovaChiefs
upamtn
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 3:21 pm

the homerism is strong …

ok, Chiefs “get a pass” and yeah, we ARE Chiefs fans … your point? last season KC ended up as #3 (at best) … you wanna say KC is the best going into 2022? no problem with that …

… just remember that a last second entry lined up in the the very last gate and was an 80-1 longshot, and WON the Kentucky Derby

Leaf
Reply to  upamtn
05/09/2022 3:30 pm

True, but you could argue the chiefs were better (or worse), than where they finished. The bangles weren’t the second best team last year. But they were good enough to capitalize on several opportunities to finish second. I’m okay with being critical of the chiefs. I was just having a bit of fun with the idea that we are worse than we were last year until we prove otherwise but that doesn’t apply to anyone else.

upamtn
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 4:41 pm

more than fair ’nuff …

I’d like to THINK that KC is better than last year (we all would, I imagine) but until it happens it doesn’t happen

Ravens had a solid draft as well, it could be THEIR year to “overcome obstacles (like Lamar Jackson) … just never know

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  upamtn
05/09/2022 4:15 pm

So you’re thinking the jets? Got it.

Hippie Believe GIF by DrSquatchSoapCo - Find & Share on GIPHY

rip58
Reply to  probablyamistake
05/09/2022 4:36 pm

No shit , this is the time of year ups reminds us of how bad we maybe.. 😁

Last edited 1 month ago by rip58
upamtn
Reply to  rip58
05/09/2022 4:39 pm

Chiefs will NOT be “bad” … however, win it all? who knows …

rip58
Reply to  upamtn
05/09/2022 4:50 pm

Hell yes we are going to win it all , I have zero doubt… CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!

upamtn
Reply to  probablyamistake
05/09/2022 4:39 pm

comment imagev

Nasrani
Nasrani
Reply to  MasterChief
05/09/2022 3:39 pm

This.

OTAs and preseason games are one thing, but the team will need to get some practical experience at game speed to really mesh together. Even six games in, there’s a chance that they won’t be firing on all cylinders. We’ll have a better idea where we’re at after four (or six) games are played, but there are too many variables right now.

All teams are #32 (and, by that logic, #1) until proven otherwise. Levels of talent obviously differ, but not by as much as some would think. Where one team (the Chiefs) has a generational QB, another team has a mediocre QB but an incredible defense. On paper a game will obviously be slated to go one way, but “any given Thursday/Sunday/Monday night.”

Chips will start to fall once August rolls around.

Last edited 1 month ago by Nasrani
Leaf
Reply to  Nasrani
05/09/2022 3:47 pm

True, but we fans like to grade things like draft picks before they have taken a single snap. Speculating on the what can be is as an important part of our fan DNA as bitching and complaining at the smallest thing.

Nasrani
Nasrani
Reply to  Leaf
05/09/2022 3:50 pm

No arguments here. That’s what makes fandom so darned interesting.

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  Nasrani
05/09/2022 3:52 pm

and fun

upamtn
Reply to  zulu trader
05/09/2022 4:43 pm

… and frustrating

NovaChiefs
Reply to  zulu trader
05/09/2022 3:16 pm

Even as a homer, we don’t get into the top 3. Too many unknowns with losing Hill.
Talk to me again after 6 games. We may indeed be back on top

upamtn
Reply to  NovaChiefs
05/09/2022 3:25 pm

Play Ball!

when is opening pitch?

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
05/09/2022 12:44 pm

I don’t get the love for the 49ers. Who’s their QB? Is Deebo playing? Yeah they made it the NFC championship game but it’s the NFC. The Donkeys might be able to make it to the NFC championship game.

On that note I’d take the top 5 AFC teams and make them 1-5. Chiefs, Bills, Chargers, Bengals, Colts (your colts ranking surprises me but I kind of like it) then put packers, Rams and bucs. Next 11 teams from the afc and that whatever garbage is left from the nfc.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/09/2022 1:39 pm

I think they might make the playoffs by winning their division at 7-9

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
05/09/2022 12:05 pm

The Tyreek trade surprised me and was pretty upset by it. The moves since then have calmed me down a bit, but still disappointed that we lost him. Was also surprised by the focus on the secondary in the draft. We’re just gonna have to trust that Spags knows what he is doing and see how it plays out. I do like the options we have in that group now.

bh13
bh13
Reply to  probablyamistake
05/09/2022 1:03 pm

It’s something we’re going to have to get used to happening more often. There’s only so much money to go around and Mahomes is going to continue to get a large portion of it for the foreseeable future.

We’re going to have to get good at recognizing which guys we can’t do without and pay them accordingly and finding the right role players to fill the rest of the roster. Something I both admired and hated the Pats for being so damned good at.

Nasrani
Nasrani
Reply to  probablyamistake
05/09/2022 1:44 pm

I wonder if Ingram is closer to being re-signed than we think, and the team isn’t letting it out (yet) for reasons known only to them. Maybe they are looking to sign a cheap free agent or three to shore up the DL and learn what Reid and Co. expect from them before we lose Clark/Ingram in the upcoming off-season.

pompano
Reply to  Nasrani
05/09/2022 2:07 pm

Thought I saw he signed the tender offer.

pompano
Reply to  pompano
05/09/2022 2:12 pm

My bad, appears not.

upamtn
05/09/2022 11:50 am

hard to argue for or against any of it, really …I think best time for “Power Rankings” starts about a month into the season and see how things shake out … at this point it’s all guesswork based mostly on LAST season, but every team has changed since then (via FA and Draft) … granted some are theoretically improved (and some are, in theory, far improved) but until they play the games I don’t think it’s “realistic” to say that we “know” how everything is going to fall in the fall

as always, expect the worst and hope for the best

Geaux Chiefs

hoosierchief
Reply to  Tony Sommer
05/09/2022 1:23 pm

The most accurate one is at the end of the year right after the Chiefs win the super bowl.

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