Week 2 NFL Power Rankings

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The official Arrowhead Guys NFL Power Rankings.

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Tier 1: The Ultra-Elite

 

1: Kansas City Chiefs (Week 1: 1)

The Chiefs had a bit of a scare against Cleveland, but it’s not enough to drop them from this tier. Mahomes is just that good.

Tier 2: The Super Bowl Contenders

 


2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 1: 3)

Like the Chiefs, the Bucs had a scare against the Cowboys but managed to hang on to win. They’re 2 for now, but even if they continue playing well I don’t know if they’re so good that they can’t be passed if another team proves themselves.


3: Buffalo Bills (Week 1: 4)

This may be a bit shocking for those who aren’t familiar with the way I do power rankings. Most people do them the way college does, where your place in the rankings is earned by winning games, and losing automatically drops you down.

But that’s not how I do it. Mine are meant to be predictive, so I don’t drop a team just because they lost. In this case the Bills were going against a team that has their number, as they also struggled against the Steelers last year. Given that I’m not ready to drop them quite yet. But this week they’re playing the Dolphins, who Allen dominated last year. If he struggles again it’ll be time for the Bills to panic.


4: San Francisco 49ers (Week 1: 7)

5: Los Angeles Rams (Week 1: 8)
6: Seattle Seahawks (Week 1: 9)

I was hoping the NFC West teams would start to separate themselves, but they all (including the Cardinals) came out and met whatever expectations you could have for them.

Tier 3: The Playoff Contenders

 

 

 

7: Green Bay Packers (Week 1: 2)

This is a dramatic drop for the Packers after just one game, but my one area of concern for them was whether Aaron Rodgers would go back to his mediocre ways. It’s too early to come to any firm conclusions, but this game was terrible for their offense. They desperately need to turn it around if they even want to make the playoffs.

8: Denver Broncos (Week 1: 10)
9: New England Patriots (Week 1: 5)
10: Miami Dolphins (Week 1: 12)

Yes the Dolphins won, but they shouldn’t have. The Patriots had the ball in the red zone late in the game down 1 and fumbled it, giving Miami the victory. But I’m still dropping New England a bit since their defense wasn’t quite as good as I was expecting.


11: Arizona Cardinals (Week 1: 13)

Watching their game against Tennessee, I was struck by how much the Cardinals depended on big plays. Murray would often just throw it up and hope his guy would get it (an admittedly solid strategy when DeAndre Hopkins is the person on the other end). But this applies to the defense as well, who made tons of big plays.

I point this out because, despite winning 38-17, one advanced stat said the Titans actually performed a bit better. And this stat has been shown to be one of the best at predicting future results.

It’s called success rate.

Unlike most other stats that can be more or less good on any given play, success rate says every play is either successful or not. A 75 yard touchdown? A success. A 7 yard run on 1st and 10? Also a success.

What this does is take away some of the luck involved in plays. A lot of times a huge play has a far bigger impact on the game and on stats than dozens of smaller plays, so by measuring by yards it can really skew things. Success rate makes all plays equal and measures how often you’re putting yourself in a better position than you were before the play.

It’s why I’m not moving the Cardinals or Titans much. The Cardinals are going to be a very up-and-down team if this continues. They’ll occasionally beat top teams, but they’ll also occasionally lose to bottom feeders.

12: Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 1: 14)
13: Cleveland Browns (Week 1: 16)
14: Baltimore Ravens (Week 1: 15)

Like the NFC West, the AFC North didn’t do much to differentiate themselves. Yes the Ravens struggled against the Raiders, but I think that was more of a bad matchup. It did highlight the problems I pointed out about them though. Without a strong pass rush even the Raiders, who are down 4 offensive linemen from last year and have Carr who was throwing ducks all night, were able to put up 27 points in regulation. And without the ability to generate turnovers, the Ravens could only manage 27 points themselves against a defense that averaged 30 points allowed last year.

Everybody wants to pretend the Ravens are a contender, but they’re not going to contend if they can’t even beat a team like the Raiders.

15: Los Angeles Chargers (Week 1: 20)
16: Washington Football Team (Week 1: 6) 

Washington’s defense wasn’t quite as dominant as I expected, but they’ll still be an interesting team with Heinicke starting going forward. He’s shown flashes of being really good, so if he can be consistent Washington might actually have something there.

17: Dallas Cowboys (Week 1: 18)
18: Tennessee Titans (Week 1: 21)
19: Philadelphia Eagles (Week 1: 27)
20: Chicago Bears (Week 1: 17)

The Eagles defense dominated Atlanta, and the offense at least looked competent. Trading away Wentz was a great decision.

Tier 4: The Less-Than-Good Teams

 

21: Atlanta Falcons (Week 1: 19)
22: Houston Texans (Week 1: 26)
23: Minnesota Vikings (Week 1: 22)
24: New Orleans Saints (Week 1: 23)
25: New York Jets (Week 1: 11)

The Jets fall quite a bit after their poor showing against Carolina. My hopes in them were mainly based on believing in Zach Wilson, but he really struggled. He did show some flashes though, so I’m open to moving them up quickly if he starts playing consistently well.

 

Tier 5: The Terrible Teams

 

26: Cincinnati Bengals (Week 1: 30)
27: Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 1: 24)
28: Las Vegas Raiders (Week 1: 25)

So much for the Trevor Lawrence hype. Sure it’s just one game, and sure his receivers dropped a lot of passes. But Lawrence had multiple bad interceptions and struggled with accuracy. He’s learning that football is a lot harder when the guys around you aren’t vastly superior to the guys on the other team.

29: Detroit Lions (Week 1: 28)
30: Indianapolis Colts (Week 1: 29)
31: New York Giants (Week 1: 31)

Wentz looks improved over last year, but that’s not saying much considering he was the worst quarterback in the NFL last year. He still looked like a guy who’s maybe a backup level guy in the league.

32: Carolina Panthers (Week 1: 32) 

Yes the Panthers won, but it was just barely despite Zach Wilson struggling and Darnold having a decent day (but even then it wasn’t great). I fully expect Darnold to play below that level for most of his games this year and for the Panthers to have a top 5 pick.

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Nasrani
Nasrani
09/14/2021 4:50 pm
Last edited 6 days ago by Nasrani
Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
09/14/2021 2:06 pm

I am crushed

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/14/2021 2:09 pm

Shitty. Funny dude.

MasterChief
MasterChief
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/14/2021 2:28 pm

Damn. He was one of a kind.

river
river
Reply to  MasterChief
09/14/2021 7:14 pm

He was good, really good

EAFOX
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/14/2021 4:12 pm

Damn – He was hilarious

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/14/2021 8:45 pm

RIP Turd Ferguson

zulu trader
zulu trader
09/14/2021 1:36 pm

Donkeys are too high raiders are too low and by the way fuck the raiders

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  zulu trader
09/14/2021 1:43 pm

You know I moved to Las Vegas and every time I see a raiders shirt I wanna tell the guy fuck the raiders I’m probably gonna end up getting my ass kicked here

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  zulu trader
09/14/2021 1:44 pm

It’s just so natural and it rolls off my tongue so easy to just say fuck the raiders

Last edited 6 days ago by zulu trader
vvet818
Reply to  zulu trader
09/14/2021 1:47 pm

Repeat after me: “Fuck the Raiders and the Broncos they rode in on”

Last edited 6 days ago by vvet818
DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
09/14/2021 1:18 pm

Donkeys are too high. Because of their schedule they are going to start hot, but that should fade really fast

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/14/2021 1:55 pm

I agree about the easy schedule but they arent going to be favored and arent going to win games at the steelers and at the browns. I think they at best go 2 out of 4 against the raiders and chargers.

They should struggle against good running teams. Their front 7 is more of a pass rushing group. Their offense is at best average. I can see them sneaking into the playoffs, maybe.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/14/2021 2:14 pm

Theyre going to have to force turnovers. Which they can do. Good pass rushers and good DBs. I think they struggle in some games they shouldnt though when teams play tight. If you go out and put the ball on the deck like Lamar, game over. The raiders team I saw last night is going to give the donkeys fits.

NovaChiefs
NovaChiefs
09/14/2021 11:39 am

We are Ultra-Elite. We were called a “perennial power” on TV the other day. Heady times to be a Chiefs fan, for sure.

And, FWIW, the jump to comments link isn’t working for me

hoosierchief
09/14/2021 11:28 am

I’m kind of surprised the Saints moved down after the beating they gave the Packers, although not as surprised as I was by the beating the Saints gave the Packers.

Chief-Blinders-On
Reply to  hoosierchief
09/14/2021 12:41 pm

Has anyone heard from Saints-Chiefs since the hurricane?

Chief-Blinders-On
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/14/2021 12:49 pm

We need some kind of Saints Signal. . . like:
comment image

Chief-Blinders-On
Reply to  Chief-Blinders-On
09/14/2021 12:52 pm

But more Boy Scout type symbol like the Saints logo:
comment image

Nasrani
Nasrani
Reply to  Chief-Blinders-On
09/14/2021 1:16 pm

I haven’t seen him on here in a while. He was one of our more frequent visitors but I noticed that he stopped commenting on here as much as he used to. I’m not sure if life got in the way (as it tends to do) or if maybe he got tired of the debates turning into personal jabs…

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  Nasrani
09/14/2021 1:42 pm

The personal jabs were coming from him, and they weren’t jabs. They were insults.

Last edited 6 days ago by probablyamistake
Nasrani
Nasrani
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 1:53 pm

I guess I hadn’t checked. I usually leave the threads right after posting the song of the day since that’s usually when Mrs. Nasrani wants to hang out, and since she didn’t get much face time with me while I was going through school, I feel like I owe her.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  Nasrani
09/14/2021 1:54 pm

You’re a good man Charlie Brown 😁

Chief-Blinders-On
09/14/2021 11:05 am

Like last week, I think you were really discounting the Steelers (along with the media). They beat a tough team on the road, that “everyone” picked to defeat them and “acted” as if the Steelers had no chance. But they won. The Steelers didn’t allow a 300 yard passer or a 100 yard rusher and kept the Bills from scoring 20 points. The Bills were a playoff team and it was more than a 12th best team performance. Next week, the Steelers face the Raiders in Pittsburgh and I think if your factoring in predications you have to predict the Steelers beat the Raiders at home.

I fucking hate the Steelers too. That’s why this is just weird. The Bills being in the top 5 as a 0-1 team is tolerable as they are a good team, but it’s still weird. The Chiefs are were they should be, but if your docking the Dolphins for the way they won. Wouldn’t fair being fair have you do the same thing to KC? I suppose not!

CHIEFS!!!!!!

Good stuff Tony.

I suppose next week we’ll see more movement in your rankings?

Chief-Blinders-On
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/14/2021 11:19 am

Having them ranked 12th is pretty low and only moving up two spots after beating a top five team is strange. But then again you also have the 32nd team as 1-0 too. So it’s obviously not just about wins, that’s why I’m curious to see how this looks after we start seeing some 0-2 teams and some 2-0 teams. And I’m going to wonder if you’ll have 0-2 teams ranked higher than 2-0 teams.

We’ll see.

Chief-Blinders-On
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/14/2021 12:40 pm

But there are always teams like the Chargers of the past that are in every game and only lose by three to six points every time and look fantastic during the game on the way to the L. It doesn’t necessarily mean they’re good. It means they can’t finish! Finishing games matters. Winning matters, not just that the OL and DL was five stars during a loss. Though I suppose I can see what you’re saying…

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Chief-Blinders-On
09/14/2021 1:01 pm

I mean 12 puts them in WC position. Seems about right. After week 1 Id say that division breaks down Browns, Steelers (wc), bengals (6-8 wins), ravens (4-5 wins).

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
09/14/2021 10:20 am

This is a team ranking, right? Our team is not ultra-elite. Patrick, yes. The Chiefs, no. We aren’t defending champs, that would be another team. If we had played that team on Sunday, we would have got our arses kicked (again). Maybe after the season we will be able to call our team elite. Right now we’re just another SB contender with some issues.

Nasrani
Nasrani
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 10:48 am

One of the biggest issues I saw was with the O-line, and I am on record as saying that I’m not completely sold on them… yet. But I think they’re going to come together (hopefully sooner rather than later) and we will once again be a force to be reckoned with.

Getting the Honey LandBadger back will help on defense too, especially since Thornhill is rehabbing nicely.

NovaChiefs
NovaChiefs
Reply to  Nasrani
09/14/2021 11:43 am

For their first full game together, I thought they did well. Of course, I’m comparing to the SB debacle. Three are rookies, one guy is playing a new position, everyone is new to the system. CLE has two of the better pass rushers & they held their own. I’m not sure what more everyone expected in the first week

Nasrani
Nasrani
Reply to  NovaChiefs
09/14/2021 11:46 am

I agree with this. And while you can work out plays and schemes and stuff in practice, games are another matter entirely. Especially for an offensive line, the whole of which needs to be better than the sum of its parts.

EAFOX
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 12:37 pm

Patrick is MVP elite. Kelce and Hill are elite as well. Chris Jones is.a superstar. Take the other three off the team and see how hard it will be for Patrick to keep pulling games out for us. You act like we have 1 Patrick and 52 Mecole Hardmans.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  EAFOX
09/14/2021 1:34 pm

A better test would be to take Patrick away and see how these guys do. Oh wait, we’ve already seen that.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 1:47 pm

I mean judging by reids track record. Theyd be a wildcard team with henne playing.

EAFOX
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 4:19 pm

Alex won quite a few games with those players.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 12:53 pm

Isnt Mahomes part of team? Checks roster. Yes yes he is.

Should we do a power rankings of teams without their best players? Maybe one if they weren’t allowed to throw forward passes. I mean what are we doing here?

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/14/2021 1:32 pm

I did say they were SB contenders, just not ultra-elite. Not that I even know what that means. Maybe Tony should explain what that means. All I know is the last two games we played they did not look ultra-elite to me. I guess you guys saw it differently. You guys are acting like we’re unbeatable or something. I mean what are we doing here?

Last edited 6 days ago by probablyamistake
DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 1:41 pm

I think it just means we are a cut above the rest. The road to the super bowl goes through arrowhead and it has for several years now.

Its the nfl not college so nobody is unbeatable, but to me Tony’s category means we expects us to have the AFC all but wrapped up by week 15.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/14/2021 1:53 pm

This ranking isn’t just for the AFC, it’s for the NFL. Everyone is blowing off the chargers because they’re the chargers. They have a QB that I would take over every QB except ours. They aren’t the same chargers and they’re in our division.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 2:04 pm

Falling into the chargers trap ehh.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/14/2021 2:08 pm

Nope. Just calling it the way I see it.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 2:08 pm

What team in the NFC are you refering too that is clearly the best team in that conference?

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/14/2021 2:12 pm

The bucs are the Super Bowl Champions until they’re not. And that means the entire NFL.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 2:16 pm

So going into the season after the donkeys won they were top dogs until they weren’t?

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/14/2021 2:28 pm

I always look at it that way, until they aren’t. I have never looked at a team that got embarrassed in the SB as ultra-elite at the beginning of the following season. This team has something to prove (like win the SB again) before some arbitrary ultra-elite label is attached to them.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 2:45 pm

I mean those are just standings. These are arbritary power rankings. We got embarassed because of our oline. We completely remade the oline. We didnt lose any major pieces from the team. And that was one game. We only lost one other game that counted the entire previous year.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/14/2021 2:55 pm

Look, I hope our team is “ultra-elite”. I hope we play the bucs in the SB and return the favor. I just think calling any team “ultra-elite” is silly. Honestly, there’s no such thing in any sport. There’s contenders and non-contenders, that’s about it. At the end there will be one champion and a bunch of losers.

rip58
rip58
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/14/2021 3:11 pm

Do you know what would’ve been ultra elite ? You making it to the chargers game… gonna miss ya.😊

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  rip58
09/14/2021 3:54 pm

I know!!!! You and Steve have fun brother!!!

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