Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

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The official Arrowhead Guys NFL Power Rankings.


Tier 1: The Super Bowl Contenders

1: Kansas City Chiefs (Last Week: 1)

I don’t see any reason to panic about the Chiefs despite the loss to the Bengals. Maybe there’s reason to panic if we face them in the playoffs again, but this is just a case of one team having the other’s number for whatever reason.

2: San Francisco 49ers (Last Week: 4)
3: Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 8)
4: Buffalo Bills (Last Week: 2)
5: Miami Dolphins (Last Week: 3)

Last week’s games featured a lot of matchups between teams I had ranked similarly, and for the most part the ones I had ranked lower lost. The Eagles crushed the Titans, the 49ers destroyed the Dolphins despite losing Garoppolo early, and lower in the rankings the Lions showed they are the superior cat team against the Jaguars.

The consistent pattern seems to be that I underestimated the NFC teams relative to the AFC, so I’m going to be boosting a lot of NFC teams this week to try and correct for that.

In fact, I was tempted to put the 49ers at the top, but there’s too much uncertainty with Purdy for me to do that yet.

Tier 2: The Playoff Contenders


6: Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: 7)

The Bengals are still behind the Ravens in the AFC North due to tiebreakers, tiebreakers that seem unlikely to shift in their direction. But with Lamar Jackson likely to miss a couple games, they have to feel good about their chances of overtaking them and winning back-to-back division titles for the first time since the Reagan administration.

7: New York Giants (Last Week: 9)
8: Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 10)
9: New York Jets (Last Week: 11)
10: Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 12)
11: Baltimore Ravens (Last Week: 5)
12: Tennessee Titans (Last Week: 6)
13: Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 13)
14: Washington Commanders (Last Week: 16)
15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Week: 14)
16: Los Angeles Chargers (Last Week: 15)

Tampa Bay beat the Saints, completing a season sweep over New Orleans for the first time since 2007, to get to 6-6. That record is somehow not only good enough to be at the top of the division, but to be 1.5 games up. I’d complain about Brady always getting lucky with bad division opponents here but it’s not like the AFC West is putting up much resistance to the Chiefs either.

Tier 3: The Less-Than-Good Teams

17: Detroit Lions (Last Week: 23)
18: Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 18)
19: Arizona Cardinals (Last Week: 17)
20: Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 19)
21: Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 20)
22: Las Vegas Raiders (Last Week: 21)
23: Los Angeles Rams (Last Week: 22)

It’s hard to believe, but the 5-7 Lions are favored over the 10-2 Vikings this week. Vegas is really buying into the Lions’ resurgence, but I’m not quite there yet. If they do in fact beat the Vikings though? Then we have to consider that the Lions are for real.

24: New England Patriots (Last Week: 24)
25: Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: 25)
26: Cleveland Browns (Last Week: 26)

If all you saw was the final score, you’d think that Watson must have had a solid outing in his first game with the Browns to lead them to a 27-14 victory. But that is not at all what happened. Of those 27 points, only 3 were scored after drives in which the offense got a first down. The other 24 points came from a punt return, a fumble return, a pick-6, and a field goal after the Texans muffed a punt and the Browns failed to get a first down.

While this is the type of game people who own the Browns D/ST in fantasy dream of (coincidentally I was watching the game with somebody who had a nice day at the fantasy office in large part because they had the Browns D/ST), it’s not a great sign for the Browns moving forward. If Watson doesn’t improve he’ll actually be a downgrade over Brissett.

In the long term the Browns need Watson to turn it around. We all are familiar with how screwed the Broncos are with Wilson, but the Browns are even more closely tied to Watson since they gave him a fully guaranteed contract. If this is the Watson they’re getting through 2026 they’re in massive trouble.

Which is fine by me. That’s what they deserve for trading for him and giving him that contract.

27: Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 27)
28: New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 28)
29: Carolina Panthers (Last Week: 29)
30: Denver Broncos (Last Week: 30)

It somehow gets worse and worse for the Broncos as the season goes on. They failed to reach double-digit points for the 3rd time this season against Baltimore, and lost yet another game where their defense dominated. They have scored only 14 touchdowns all season. Mahomes, by himself, has 32.

We may end the season with Russell Wilson having more bathrooms in his house than passing touchdowns.

Tier 4: The Terrible Teams

31: Chicago Bears (Last Week: 31)
32: Houston Texans (Last Week: 32)

Early on it looked like the Bears were going to earn themselves a promotion out of the bottom tier by finally getting a win over Aaron Rodgers. Instead Rodgers found his groove against the team he owns and the Bears continue to have little hope.


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12/06/2022 11:46 am

Jalen Hurts is “for real” and so are the #1 Eagles

#2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 (TIE) KC, BUFF, CIN, SF, MIA, Dallas

#8 #9 #10 (TIE) MINN, NYG, BAL

#11 #12 (TIE) TEN, SEA

trying to “simplify” things here as there’s really truly honestly not much “separation” between the “top teams” in the league … any given Sunday or whatever day they play

my only hesitation would be the Niners and their Brand New Shiny QB: Mr Irrelevant (who is suddenly VERY relevant)

that’s my not-so-hawt taek … we shall see how it all plays out

12/06/2022 11:20 am

Really have a hard on for the 49ers. Deafeter of (most) teams mediocre. It was a good showing for them against a good, not great, Dolphins team but they did have the home game against a team traveling the 6.5 hours and 3 time zones. Losing garropllo is huge for them. Luckily for them they continue their March through mediocrity schedule the rest of the way with TB at home, @seagulls, home WFT, @raiders, home cardinals. The eagles (the only decent NFC team) will wax the floor with this team in the playoffs at home.

Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
12/06/2022 3:59 pm

Basically agree, except for the QB part. I suspect Shanny still doesn’t believe in Jimmy as a passer, so as long as the new guy can stay near 60% on the short to mid stuff, and execute the ground game well, they might not draw down as much as you’d normally expect.

Still, I can’t help but wonder if he thinks his new QB has a Purdy mouth.

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