Tony’s Picks: Week 4

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.


Last week: 8-8

Overall: 21-26-1

Home Teams (Benchmark): 25-22-1

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 27-20-1

This week: 16-0

Bengals over Dolphins

As mentioned, I had the worst 2 week start of my picking career, going 0-7 when bucking the oddsmakers and picking the underdogs. That streak got extended to 0-8 as my picked Steelers went down to the Browns last Thursday. But I finally, FINALLY!, turned it around Sunday with my very bold Miami pick (that actually became less bold as the Bills ended up missing a lot of starters in the secondary due to injury) and the less bold but still counts Packers pick over the Buccaneers. While the raw win-loss doesn’t look great, it’s only because there were so many upsets. Looks like I’m not going to give up just yet.

But I do want to complain about one of those 8 losses, the Jaguars failing to earn me money by losing to the Commanders in week 1. Washington was favored by 3, but I felt the Jaguars were the superior team. And indeed they look like it after 3 weeks, and I’m sure they’d be favored in that game if it was in week 4. But I still lost despite making a prescient pick.

Anyway, one week 1 pick I definitely deserved to lose was picking the Patriots over the Dolphins, as Miami looks very good after beating the Bills. And normally I’d pick them, but this is a Thursday game, on the road, right after that Bills match up they went all out for. I think they are going to have a bit of a let-down game.

I was expecting this to be a bold pick, but the Bengals are actually favored. I think the Dolphins are going to be a very popular bet (where it’s legal).

Vikings over Saints

Winston has been less than good for the Saints, as he’s on pace to throw 28 interceptions this season. That’s going to make it hard to win games. It’s not like the Saints are completely outmatched, but the Vikings are the clear safe choice here in London.

Falcons over Browns

Another less than exciting matchup, I could go either way here. I’ll go with Atlanta just because I have a bit more trust in Mariota than Brissett, plus the Falcons are at home.

Bills over Ravens

This is a really good matchup that could go either way. Early this season, I had the Ravens ranked above the Bills, but dropped them as I felt the Dolphins legitimately looked better in their win. I was less convinced the Dolphins were better than the Bills in that game, so I still think the Bills are better. But if the Ravens win here, it could really shake confidence in the Bills.

Cowboys over Commanders

Outside of the Eagles, the NFC East is as bad as ever, so it’s hard to get too worked up about this game. I’ll just go with picking against Carson Wentz, that always seems like a good idea.

Lions over Seahawks

The Lions are favored by 6 which is a surprisingly large margin. I don’t really see much reason to think the Lions are significantly better than the Seahawks. To me, this is a game where I’m just going to pick the home team because I could go either way.

Chargers over Texans

The Chargers are quickly losing all of their starters to injury. Before the season started, this seemed like it’d be an easy win for them, but now I wouldn’t be shocked if the Texans ended up winning. For now, I’m assuming the Chargers are still at least competent, but can they really absorb all of these losses?

Titans over Colts

The headline was that the Colts beat the Chiefs, but the more I think about the game, the more I’m really pessimistic for the Colts. They finally got some guys back on offense, yet it looked as bad as every. They have now had 2 touchdown drives outside of that 4th quarter in week 1. One was that 4 yard drive after a fumbled punt. The other required a questionable penalty to avoid facing a 4th and 14 (i.e. a situation that would almost always lead to a drive ending).

The Titans aren’t world beaters by any stretch, but I just don’t see how the Colts can win unless they get more of those fluky plays to help their offense along.

Giants over Bears

Yeah, yeah, both teams have a winning record. I don’t care, they’re both going to be picking top 10 this year. I’ll default with the home team here.

Eagles over Jaguars

This is the non-Chiefs game I’m most excited for. The Jaguars are starting to look like they might actually be a real playoff contender, while the Eagles are crushing their admittedly weak opponents. This will be a good test for both.

Steelers over Jets

The Steelers are winless without T.J Watt, but surely that won’t include the Jets right? Right?

Cardinals over Panthers

I know they have the same record, but I’m really surprised the Panthers are favored. In my mind, the Cardinals are clearly the superior team.

Packers over Patriots

With Hoyer being the new Patriots quarterback, this is going to be one of the biggest quarterback mismatches of the season. The Packers are favored by 10 as of writing, and honestly I’d put the line over 15. The Packers have no business letting the Patriots hang around in this game.

Raiders over Broncos

Lots of surprising lines this week. All year long, Vegas has really loved the Broncos, so I was fully expecting them to be favored over the Raiders. But apparently even in a win that was one too many poor offensive performances for the moneyed interests to remain on the bandwagon, as the Raiders are favored by 2. I agree, if anything they should be favored by more.

Chiefs over Buccaneers

I’m really disappointed the Chiefs are favored now. Before the season, Tampa Bay was favored, and there’s nothing I love doing more than betting on Mahomes as an underdog. But alas, Vegas has realized that the Tampa Bay offense is terrible.

Now, that being said, there are two things in Tampa’s favor. One is that they may end up getting some of their weapons back this week, so they could see an improvement in that area. The other is their defense, which is as good as ever. This could be a tight, low scoring game where one or two key turnovers or big plays makes the difference.

Rams over 49ers

I honestly don’t know for this one. The 49ers are better I think, but them losing the best left tackle in the league makes me very nervous. Plus, the Rams have looked better since their week 1 drubbing. I’m going to go with Los Angeles, just based on my gut. I know usually my gut just tells me to eat more kettle corn, but I’ll trust it this time.


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09/29/2022 5:30 pm

Dolphins over baby bengals — if Tua plays the entire game

09/29/2022 1:15 pm

Chiefs over Buccaneers:
You forgot one other thing the bucs have, home field. We didn’t look so hot last week on the road. We’ll see if they improve. Hope so.

09/29/2022 11:28 am

I agree with all these picks. My only gripe being I think the Lions win easy of the super sucky Seattle seagulls. That team sucks. Also I think the Rams win easy over the 49ers unless Stafford plays terrible which is entirely possible. 49ers look terrible.

09/29/2022 11:08 am

The Donkeys and the Faders, you say?

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Reply to  Nasrani
09/29/2022 10:21 pm

Go Meteor , Go !!! … ; )

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