Tony’s Picks: Week 14

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.

 

Last week: 8-6-1

Overall: 0-0

Home Teams (Benchmark): 0-0

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 0-0

This week: 13-0

Rams over Raiders

Boy, last week was rough for me. It may not look like it since 8-6-1 seems respectable on the surface, but this was a week in which favorites went 11-3-1, so I did horrible relative to expectations.

So to move on, the Raiders have quietly been hanging around, as they’ve won 3 games in a row and are only 2 games back of a wildcard spot. It’d still be a miracle for them to get in with only 5 games remaining, but a win here could get them a bit closer.

Bills over Jets

This game reminds me of the Chiefs and Bengals last week. I picked the Chiefs, but I did not feel good about it at all given the recent history of the matchup.

In the same way, I don’t think I can pick against the Bills here, but it sure is tempting. Not only did the Jets beat them last time around, New York might have an even better team now with Mike White putting up good numbers. It is a small sample size, but his 7.4 ANY/A is way beyond the 4.9 that Wilson and Flacco posted this same season. If Mike White is actually this good, the Jets could be a legitimate contender.

Bengals over Browns

I’m honestly a bit surprised that the Bengals are favored by 6. I mean I agree, if anything they should be favored by more, but I would think Vegas would be a strong believer in the Browns with Watson and willing to write off his poor performance in his first game back. Maybe they learned their lesson from sticking with the Broncos way beyond the point where it was obvious Russell Wilson was bad for real.

Cowboys over Texans

This isn’t going to be much of a battle for Texas, with the Cowboys being favored by a massive 17 points. And rightfully so, the Texans are a complete disaster.

Vikings over Lions

The 5-7 Lions are favored over the 10-2 Vikings. I understand the argument, I really do, but I just can’t buy into the Lions quite yet. If they do win here, though, I will become a believer.

Eagles over Giants

The Eagles had an extremely impressive win over the Titans last week, while the Giants struggled to a tie with Washington. The Eagles are better, but I’m not so sure if they’re the 7 points better that Vegas says they are.

Steelers over Ravens

The Ravens have lost 4 straight games to the Steelers, and are now likely without Lamar Jackson. I was actually expecting the Ravens to still be favored, but right now the Steelers are actually favored by 3. That’s a shame that I lost a good betting opportunity.

Titans over Jaguars

Tennessee looked horrible against the Eagles, but it’s not a problem for them, as they’re still way ahead in their division thanks to everybody else sucking. The Jaguars have been disappointing, but they have been known to occasionally knock off good teams, so I wouldn’t count them out.

Dolphins over Chargers

This is a major game for the AFC playoff picture. The Dolphins can’t afford to lose if they want to stay with the Bills in the AFC East, while the Chargers need to win to keep pace for a wildcard spot. Despite losing big to the 49ers, the Dolphins are the superior team and should win comfortably.

Seahawks over Panthers

The Seahawks are barely clinging to a playoff spot. At the moment they are only the 7th seed due to a tiebreaker over Washington. These are the games they have to win if they want to make it into the dance.

49ers over Buccaneers

San Francisco is now down to their 3rd string quarterback, 7th round rookie Brock Purdy. I’m not going to lie, trying to find something meaningful to say about Purdy is like The Onion sketch with the commentators asked to talk about Nigeria.

But the 49ers seem to be QB-proof. No matter who they send out there, they play at a high level, so I think they should be able to beat a subpar Bucs team regardless.

Chiefs over Broncos

The Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 13 times in a row, and there’s no reason to believe that streak will be ending anytime soon. The Broncos have only scored 20+ points twice, while the Chiefs have only been held under 20 points once. This should be an easy win for the Chiefs.

Cardinals over Patriots

This is a tough game to call. Sure, the Patriots have the better record, but outside owning the Jets they haven’t really been any more impressive than the Cardinals. I will lean towards Arizona here, especially at home.

 

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NovaChiefs
12/08/2022 6:20 pm

I don’t see the Rams putting it together enough to beat the raiders. I hope I’m way off and it’s a laugher early, but nah.
Ravens with Hudley (I think his name is, too lazy to look it up) are better than the Steelers with anyone they have right now.
Cincy, Bills win unfortunately

zulu trader
zulu trader
12/08/2022 3:55 pm

bills are a 10 point favorite

New England over Arizona!

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
12/08/2022 11:49 am

Damn the Rams are in a horrible spot with Stafford. If not for their shiny new rings I would say they are basicslly in the same position as the donkeys. I think raiders win in their pseudo home against that dumpster fire. (Chargers should have moved to Vegas and raiders to LA. My guess is kroenke didn’t want the raiders fans shitting in his house but still)

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
12/08/2022 11:15 am

You should put where these games are being played. A lot of cross country trips taking place. Dolphins stayed in California after getting spanked by the overrated 49ers for their game against San angles. Good idea. Should be a close game.

49ers get a Florida team for a 2nd week in a row at home. Bucs offense already looks horrid.

Pats are traveling all the way to the desert to take on pathetically still in contention for a wc Cards.

KCChef
KCChef
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
12/08/2022 10:39 pm

Agree w/ DDH as to Venue … Each team’s current record would help sort out the picks as well for this non-betting layman ( & Others I’m Sure ! … ; )

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