Last week: 11-5
Home Teams (Benchmark): 101-79
Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 115-63-2
This week: 13-0
COWBOYS (-9) over Seahawks
Favorites finally caught up to me as they had an exceptionally strong week while I got unlucky in my underdog picks. I picks the Texans, who were a missed field goal away from OT against Jacksonville, and the Bills, who were a tough field goal by Philly away from beating the Eagles in regulation (a field goal that might have been rushed if the Bills defender tackled the Eagles receiver in bounds instead of knocking down the pass).
Anyway, Dallas should be favored either way, but being nearly a double-digit favorite means Vegas must not like Geno’s health, right? The Seahawks are very decent, and the Cowboys aren’t that good.
Colts (-1) over TITANS
I’m also surprised by this line, but that it’s so small. Will Levis has been better than Tannehill this year, but that’s not saying much considering how bad Tannehill was. It would be surprising if the Titans win this one.
Chargers (-6) over PATRIOTS
Is Bill Belichick going to get a preview of his next team this week? At this point it seem inevitable that the Patriots and Belichick are destined for a “mutual parting of the ways”, while it’s hard to imagine the Chargers sticking with Brandon Staley unless they go on a huge run to finish the season.
And this really seems like the perfect match. The Chargers have a good young quarterback and a terrible defense. Belichick is the best defensive coach in NFL history and has proven he can win as long as he has a good quarterback to carry the offensive side of the ball.
Lions (-4) over SAINTS
If the Lions want to view themselves as real contenders this is a game they have to win. Losing to a Green Bay sometimes happens, but you can’t lose to lesser teams in back-to-back weeks and still think you have a realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl.
Falcons (-3) over JETS
I don’t understand the whole Aaron Rodgers returning thing. They’re starting Tim Boyle, clearly they’re in tank mode. Why even pretend like Aaron Rodgers might return when you’re so loudly telling everybody that you’re playing for draft picks?
Cardinals over STEELERS (-5.5)
Maybe I’m completely wrong, but I feel like Vegas hasn’t adjusted to Kyler Murray returning. I’m not saying the Cardinals are light years ahead of Pittsburgh or anything, but 5.5 point favorites? That seems way too generous.
BUCCANEERS (-5) over Panthers
Frank Reich has now been sunk in back-to-back years by poor quarterback decisions. In Indianapolis he pushed hard for Carson Wentz, a mistake that would have been horrible for the Colts had Washington not bailed them out for some reason. This time he traded a king’s ransom to trade up to the top spot in the draft for Bryce Young, who has been an absolute disaster as a rookie. That CJ Stroud was the next pick and has looked awesome in Houston adds extra salt to the wound.
Dolphins (-9.5) over COMMANDERS
Speaking of head coaches getting fired, how long does Riverboat Ron have left in Washington? I thought he did an overall good job in Carolina, and thought it was a good get by Washington when they hired him. But seemingly every time I look to see what they’re doing in our nation’s capital it’s just an endless stream of bad decisions. And the football team is poorly run too.
TEXANS (-3.5) over Broncos
I am absolutely shocked that the Broncos are underdogs here. This whole season Vegas has looked for any excuse to make them the favorites no matter how ridiculous. But now when they’ve been on a winning streak and are facing a team with the same record they’re getting cold feet? Oh well, I’ll have to look for another way to get free money.
RAMS (-3.5) over Browns
The Browns quarterback room is a mess, but more importantly Myles Garrett was injured in their last game. PJ Walker is probably an upgrade over Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but they have no shot at a playoff spot without Garrett.
49ers (-3) over EAGLES
I can’t begin to describe how disappointed I was to see the 49ers favored here. I thought this would be my big play of the week. The Eagles are clearly a really good team, but they’re not near as good as their record the past couple years would indicate. I still firmly believe that the 49ers would have gone to the Super Bowl last year if Purdy hadn’t gotten hurt.
This is the opportunity to prove that right. San Francisco is the best team in the NFC, and they’ll prove it in Philadelphia this Sunday.
Chiefs (-6.5) over PACKERS
This game looked like it’d be an automatic win for a while, but Jordan Love has suddenly figured out how to play football the last couple of weeks. Now, in his 3 recent good performances he was playing against poor defenses (Rams, Chargers, Lions), and when he played a tough defense (Steelers) he did poorly. So against another tough defense in the Chiefs he may not be able to play at that level.
But I still am much more nervous for this game than I was 2 months ago. We might actually have to put a little bit of offense together to come out of Lambeau with a victory.
JAGUARS (-8) over Bengals
With the dust starting to settle in the AFC the Jaguars have emerged as legitimate contenders for the top seed. They still have to win the race against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Dolphins, but they have a very easy schedule moving forward outside of a matchup with the Ravens.
That starts here. They absolutely cannot lose a game to Jake Browning if they want to consider themselves a serious team.