Tony’s Picks: Week 11

 

Last week: 9-5

Overall: 95-55

Home Teams (Benchmark): 83-67

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 93-56

This week: 14-0

RAVENS (-3.5) over Bengals

Last week was a crazy week as favorites only went 8-6. I managed to correctly pick one of the underdog victors (the Cardinals), so I had a positive week overall.

As for this game, I hate divisional games on TNF. This is one of the most important games of the season for determining the pecking order in the AFC playoffs, why is it on Thursday?

This game is close, but I’m going with the Ravens for two reasons. One, home field advantage is amplified with the short week. And two, The Bengals have struggled with the Ravens (just look at the playoffs last year when they needed an insane fluke play to beat the Tyler Huntley Ravens).

Steelers over BROWNS (-1)

I had to double check to make sure this line is right. I’m a Steelers hater, and also a Deshaun Watson hater, so I can kind of understand the Browns being favored if PJ Walker was starting. But instead they’re going with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who was horrible in his limited action earlier in the season. It’d be absolutely shocking if he suddenly was able to play at a competent level against the Steelers.

LIONS (-8) over Bears

Do I really need to explain this one? If anything this line is way to low.

Chargers (-3) over PACKERS

Jordan Love has finally started to rebound and play a little better his last couple of games. If he can continue to improve they are playing a team who certainly knows how to lose games they should have won. But for now the smart money is on LAC.

DOLPHINS (-13.5) over Raiders

I agree the Dolphins should be heavily favored at home over the Raiders, but by two touchdowns?! That seems a bit excessive for a Raiders team that isn’t that bad. The only argument I can see for this is that the Dolphins are good at blowing out lesser competition.

COMMANDERS (-8.5) over Giants

The 4-6 Commanders being favored by 8.5 points should tell you everything you need to know about Tommy DeVito. But this is absolutely the right thing for the Giants to do. They need the better draft position more than they need meaningless wins in a lost season.

Cowboys (-10.5) over PANTHERS

Is it just me, or does this feel like a game that is due for an out-of-nowhere upset? I mean I’m not going to actually pick it, I don’t trust my gut that much, but the way this season is going that’s the exact time an upset will strike.

JAGUARS (-7) over Titans

This should be a nice bounce back opportunity for Jacksonville after getting absolutely destroyed by the 49ers last week. And more than that, they need to win games like this with Houston suddenly nipping at their heels. If they lose and the Texans beat Arizona it’ll be Houston sitting at the top of the division.

TEXANS (-5) over Cardinals

With Kyler Murray back I’m not so confident that this will be an easy game for Houston. But they should still be the better team, and they’re at home, so this is still a comfortable pick.

49ERS (-11.5) over Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is one of those teams who’s sort of just hanging around thanks to an easy schedule and a horrible division. That’s the type of team contenders like 49ers steam roll.

BILLS (-7) over Jets

Believe it or not the Jets have won 2 of last 3 meetings, so it’s not impossible that they come out with a victory. But the story of this season has been games smacking down narratives right as they start to pick up steam. With people starting to panic over Buffalo expect them to win by 40.

RAMS over Seahawks (-1)

I just can’t quit the Rams. Sure they just lost to the Packers, but I still don’t think they’re not as bad as their record. So I’ll go ahead and make the dumb pick and trust them to beat Seattle at home.

Vikings over BRONCOS (-2.5)

Can someone explain to me why Vegas likes the Broncos so much? They started the season being favored in 4 of their first 5 games and proceeded to go 1-4. Vegas finally figured out they suck, at least for a little bit. But now that the Broncos have gotten lucky a couple weeks in a row by being the team who happened to be on the schedule when Mahomes got the flu and being the beneficiaries of the Bills forgetting how to count to 11 now Vegas thinks they’re good again.

It’ll be fun to watch Joashua Dobbs embarrass them in Denver.

CHIEFS (-2.5) over Eagles

Did you know that Andy Reid has never lost a Chiefs-Eagles matchup? We went 3-0 against the Chiefs with the Eagles, and now has gone 4-0 against the Eagles with the Chiefs (including the last Super Bowl). This will be a tough game, but the Chiefs are better and at home so it’s more likely than not that they’ll win.

 

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