Tony’s Picks: Week 1

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.


Last week: 0-0

Overall: 0-0

Home Teams (Benchmark): 0-0

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 0-0

This week: 16-0

Seahawks over Falcons

I really like Matt Ryan, which is why I was high on the Falcons last year, but they found a way to lose despite him. The Seahawks have also failed to take advantage of their elite quarterback recently, but they’ll likely still be better.

Bills over Jets

I was high on the Bills going into last year, but after having them prove me right last year they’ve gone into overrated territory. People seem to have forgotten that Josh Allen isn’t very good. Sam Darnold is better, but the Jets are awful as an organization, so the Bills should still be better.

Lions over Bears

The Lions were pretty good last year before their entire team got injured, so they could easily be a surprise team this year. The Bears are a mess with no quarterback, so the Lions should have no problem here.

Vikings over Packers

I was high on the Packers last year, and despite them going 13-3 and making the NFC Championship Game I feel like I was off on them. Rodgers just isn’t as good as he used to be, and their defense was good but not that good. The Vikings should be better this year.

Dolphins over Patriots

The Patriots are huge favorites and I’m not sure why. Sure the Dolphins probably won’t be a contender, but the Patriots have an awful roster. This is more like a 50/50 game in my mind.

Eagles over Football Team

Ever since winning the Super Bowl the Eagles have been hyped, and this year is no exception. At what point do they run out of excuses?

Panthers over Raiders

It’s hard to get a read on both of these teams. Neither inspire much confidence, but neither seem like they’ll be competing for the top pick either. Let’s go Panthers because I have more faith in Bridgewater than Carr.

Colts over Jaguars

I really like Minshew, but the Colts roster is just so much better than the Jaguars that I don’t think he’ll be able to pull out a victory.

Browns over Ravens

I often forget that most people seriously consider Lamar Jackson to be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. The Browns handled the Ravens easily last year when healthy, and they only got better this year. The Ravens have the better coach, but the Browns have the better quarterback and should be able to win.

Chargers over Bengals

I’m tempted to pick the Bengals, but I think this unusual offseason will stunt Burrow’s development enough that it’ll take him a while to get comfortable.

Saints over Buccaneers

The game of the week, and likely the top division race in the NFL this year. I could see this game going either way, but the Saints should be better.

Cardinals over 49ers

It’s always a bit concerning when you’re jumping on the latest offseason bandwagon team (see the Browns last year), but I do like the Cardinals to be improved this year, while the 49ers suffer a Super Bowl hangover.

Cowboys over Rams

The Rams are in deep salary cap trouble after going all in. Dak is really underrated (which is surprising for a Cowboys quarterback, you’d think they’d be overhyped) and should be able to outdo Goff.

Steelers over Giants

The Steelers are one of the more interesting teams this year. Will Roethlisberger play at his old level? If so the Steelers could be a real contender.

Titans over Broncos

The Broncos are another one of the hot teams of the offseason, and maybe they will be good, but I’m still a big believer in the Titans.

Chiefs over Texans

This is far and away the biggest mismatch of week 1. If they remain healthy the Chiefs have a legitimate chance of going 16-0, while the Texans look like they’re on the verge of a top 10 pick with their terrible defense and loss of Hopkins. I’d be surprised if this game is even close.


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09/10/2020 12:06 pm

Gotta love that shade being thrown at Lamar Jackson

Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/10/2020 1:03 pm

Browns have the better QB though? That’s crazy talk. I don’t hate the bet, it’s week 1 during the pandemic. Things are bound to be wacky, but Lamar is a better QB than Baker…fo sho.

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Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/10/2020 5:23 pm

I agree. Mayfield has impressed me and the awful playcalling and oline from last year were addressed.

Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/10/2020 2:06 pm

My opinion is that while he can run he will be very dangerous but that just doesnt last. A lot of people say something like “he just needs to improve his passing/accuracy.” Well thats a lot easier said than done. I would actually say very very few qbs in NFL have ever done that. QBs at the NFL level improve their timing and awareness not their actual arm talent. Look at Tebow for the extreme example.

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