Tony’s Picks: Super Bowl 55

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.

 

Last week: 2-0

Overall: 176-91-1

 

This week: 1-0

 

 

Chiefs over Buccaneers

Well, here we are yet again, the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl. If you read my review of Tampa Bay it should be little surprise that I’m picking the Chiefs. This is one of the biggest Super Bowl mismatches in recent memory. Tampa Bay is relatively weak as far as Super Bowl teams are concerned, while the Chiefs should be considered one of the best teams in NFL history. Not that this means the Chiefs are guaranteed to win (you could have written the same thing about the Patriots and Giants in 2007) but it does mean the Chiefs have no excuse not to win.

People are making a lot out of the Chiefs’ injuries along the offensive line, but the only difference from our previous game against Tampa Bay is Fisher. While he is an important part of the line it’s not going to suddenly shift the balance in favor of the Tampa Bay defense, especially when it’s offset by Watkins’ likely return. Is it possible that the Tampa defensive line dominates and the Chiefs’ offense struggles (relatively speaking)? Sure, but I don’t see it as particularly likely.

The Buccaneers’ offense against the Chiefs defense is a much bigger question. Brady isn’t elite anymore, but he’s good enough to make the occasional big play. And the Chiefs’ defense has enough elite players that when they’re firing on all cylinders they’re as good of a unit as any in the NFL, but they can be inconsistent. It’s possible Brady has a big day, and it turns into a shootout like the 2018 AFC Championship, but it’s also possible that Brady throws a bunch of picks and the Chiefs win by 30.

Overall Tampa Bay needs an inside straight to win. They need to slow down the Chiefs offense, and their offense needs to do well, and they probably need the Chiefs to make an uncharacteristic mistake or two to win.

 

 

 

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zulu trader
zulu trader
02/05/2021 12:34 pm
Last edited 2 months ago by zulu trader
larch
larch
Reply to  Tony Sommer
02/05/2021 11:43 am

By laying the groundwork and doing your due diligence like was apparent in your post yesterday, then just come right out and say it like you just did. Awesome, man, enjoy the game.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
Reply to  Tony Sommer
02/05/2021 11:44 am

How about a tale of the tape?
Coach: Chiefs
QB: Chiefs by about 18 years
RB: It doesn’t matter, but Chiefs
OL: Without Fisher, Bucs I guess.
WR: Chiefs by a hunnert
TE: Chiefs by a billion
DL: Bucs, no doubt.
CB: Chiefs. The Spitfires are scrambling.
S: Chiefs. Rent’s due. Drop it off with Dirty Dan.
K: Chiefs
P: The Bucs can have this one. What’s a punt?
KR: Damn. Hardman already muffed this one.
PR: Pringle already scored again.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
Reply to  Tony Sommer
02/05/2021 12:22 pm

Tampa’s DL isn’t as good as the 49ers for sure, but they are overall better than the Chiefs. Jones and Clark are better than any Tampa DL individually, but Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh will still shut down any run game. The LBs are absolutely better than the Chiefs. Keep in mind that this front 7 is the only place I’m worried about. The Chiefs are overwhelming favorites in the talent department I think. 4/5 of the best players in this game are Chiefs.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Tony Sommer
02/05/2021 12:28 pm

RB. Id say TB is better. But who cares

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
02/05/2021 12:38 pm

Oddly enough, the Chiefs have had a better season by YPC and total yards. When we committed to it, we were good with CEH and Williams.

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  HawaiiFiveOh
02/05/2021 12:39 pm

Tampa has Fournette

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
Reply to  Tony Sommer
02/05/2021 1:58 pm

By a lot actually. Fournette has averaged over 1 yard per carry less than Jones.

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