Tony’s Picks: Divisional Round

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.


Last week: 3-3

Overall: 171-90-1


This week: 4-0


Saints over Buccaneers

I had this as the NFC Championship game, but this didn’t go as expected, so now they’ll play a round earlier. The Saints won both games during the season, which brings us to something that has always bothered me.

It’s hard to beat a team three times in a season.

This statement is true in isolation. If you knew ahead of time that you were going to play a team 3 times, of course it would be a difficult task to go 3-0. But it’s usually used when one team has already gone 2-0, and they’re playing in the playoffs, which makes zero sense.

I mean let’s just think about it for a moment. If all you knew was that Team A and Team B were playing each other, you’d say the odds (as far as you knew) was 50/50. Now let’s say I told you that Team A had won the previous 2 matchups, wouldn’t common sense tell you that Team A would be more likely to win the 3rd game as well?

And surely enough, I went back and counted every time two teams played each other when one was 2-0 against the other since the division realignment in 2002, and the team that was 2-0 went 5-2 in those games.

So while the saying is that it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, it should be that it’s hard to beat a team that’s already beaten you twice.

Packers over Rams

The Packers have no business losing to the banged up Rams at home in the cold, but the Seahawks also had no business losing to them. But the Packers are better than Seattle, right?

Bills over Ravens

Even though the Bills won, they were lucky to get out of there with a victory after a number of things went their way. Lamar finally got over his playoff hump, but he still only scored 20 points. That’s not likely to cut it against the Bills and Josh Allen who’s suddenly good somehow. The Ravens defense is going to have to show up big if they want to win this game.

Chiefs over Browns

We’re 2 weeks into the new year, and the Browns winning a playoff game isn’t the craziest thing that has happened this year. Despite their nice victory over Pittsburgh, they’ll need a miracle to beat the Chiefs, especially when they’re potentially missing both their left tackle and left guard. The Chiefs are simply on another level and have no business even keeping this game close.

Oh yeah, and there’s this.

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01/12/2021 4:54 pm

Tony, what’s this thing about “This Week 4-0” … they haven’t even played the games yet

01/12/2021 2:31 pm

Good stat from Harry Kuntz.

01/12/2021 12:26 pm

Don’t see the saints beating the bucs. Hate to say it but brady is playing very well and brees not so much

Rogue Chief
Rogue Chief
Reply to  probablyamistake
01/12/2021 3:34 pm

As bad as Brees played, the Saints are by far the better team. Their Defense is no joke and Alvin Kamara is a handful. I remember Brees having a pretty shit day against the Chiefs and that game was quite close as far as the scoreboard read….

01/12/2021 11:52 am

Abbreviating Houston as “Hous” is a real psycho move

Reply to  workingmansdead
01/12/2021 12:38 pm

Are we seeing Tony’s descent into madness?

Reply to  HawaiiFiveOh
01/12/2021 4:53 pm

nah, that happened LONG ago …

01/12/2021 11:35 am

We’re 2 weeks into the new year, and the Browns winning a playoff game isn’t the craziest thing that has happened this year.

Starting 2021 off right.

Reply to  Tony Sommer
01/12/2021 11:46 am

As long as we’re the team that gets the 1, and not part of the 3, then I’m good with it.

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