The Bills had a good game against the Patriots on Saturday. A really good game. A really, REALLY good game. They had a total of 8 drives, the first 7 ended in a touchdown and the last one was three kneel downs by Mitchell Trubisky. While the Chiefs had a similar offensive output against the Steelers after a slow start (6 touchdown drives in a row), the Bills are obviously getting a lot of hype for arguably the best offensive performance ever.
So should the Chiefs be worried?
You’d think that having a good game in the Wildcard Round is a positive sign for how you’ll perform in the Divisional Round, but Soren Petro found a stat that showed that’s not necessarily the case.
Settle down Chiefs fans…
Since the NFL went to 12 playoff teams in 1990… teams that have scored 40+ in the Wild Card round (and won) are just 3-12 in the next round.
*The 2009 Packers lost 51-45 to the Cardinals and the 2013 Chiefs lost 45-44 to the Colts.
— Soren Petro (@SorenPetro) January 16, 2022
So is scoring a lot actually bad? Well no, because that’s right where Wildcard winners are in general in the next round (32-92), but it’s still interesting how scoring a lot doesn’t seem to correlate with success in the next game. Which begs the question, why?
My theory is that to play in the Wildcard Round means you aren’t all that great under the old format. Sure, you may be pretty good, but you’re not one of the top 2 teams in the conference, so you’re probably not elite. On the flip side, your opponent may actually not be very good at all and have snuck into the playoffs. So a blowout in the Wildcard Round is much more likely to indicate your opponent was bad than that you are good, and that shows up in the next round.
In short, don’t get too worked up about one game. Just like you shouldn’t point to them losing to the Jaguars as proof they suck. The Bills are a good team, just not quite as good as the Patriots made them look.