I Watched Every Eagles Game And All I Got Was This T-Shirt

Just like 2019 and 2020, that was a lie, I didn’t actually get a T-shirt. But also like those years I did watch every single game our Super Bowl opponent, this time the Philadelphia Eagles, played in the 2022 season.

WK1 PHI 38 DET 35

It was D'Andre Swift (15/144/1) vs. AJ Brown (10/155/0). It looked like it would be an easy PHI win, but DET was within 3 with 3:51 left. But PHI closed it out with 2 1st downs on the next drive, including a big run by Sanders that looked stopped on 3rd down.

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) January 31, 2023

WK3 PHI 24 WAS 8

Wentz had no chance against the PHI D. The only TD was in garbage time on the last drive. The PHI O was mediocre overall, but it could be because they took their foot off the gas after being up 24-0 at half.

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) January 31, 2023

WK5 PHI 20 ARI 17

This is the type of game that should make PHI nervous for the SB. ARI was a missed 43 yard FG away from sending it to OT. And it wasn't due to flukey plays, ARI just matched PHI and played them well.

Not a good look for PHI against a 4-13 team.

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 1, 2023

WK8 PHI 35 PIT 13

Maybe not quite as dominant as the score would indicate, it was 28-13 early in the 4th before a PIT fumble set up a short TD drive. But still an impressive blowout win over a decent team.

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 1, 2023

WK10 WAS 32 PHI 21

You could argue that PHI's INT and 3 fumbles makes this a fluke, but when WAS had a 23-21 lead in the 4th after PHI scored for the last time the TO margin was an even 1-1. It wasn't a "real" 11 point loss (WAS scored on the lateral play), but still a real loss

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 2, 2023

WK12 GB 33 PHI 40

GB is known for struggling with running QB's, so little surprise Hurts gashed them for 157 yards on the ground. PHI had a total of 363 rushing yards. Rodgers got injured in the 4th, but it's hard to imagine GB winning regardless.

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 3, 2023

WK14 PHI 48 NYG 22

PHI dominated on the ground (253 yards) but also on special teams, with 10 points coming from drives starting in NYG territory thanks to the STs.

A somewhat mediocre day through the air from Hurts considering the score (217 yards/2 TD/0 INT).

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 4, 2023

WK16 PHI 34 DAL 40

Great game. Minshew at QB had a good game (355/2/2), but PHI had 2 INTS (DAL ripped ball out of WR hands on both) and 2 fumbles (both on RB). PHI had the ball deep at the end but just couldn't get into the endzone.

Dak also had a good game (347/3/1).

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 4, 2023

WK18 NYG 16 PHI 22

Not the most impressive showing against the NYG backups, as PHI only managed to score a single touchdown. But that may say more about NYG starting the wrong guys since PHI dominated the other 2 games.

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 4, 2023

CCG SF 7 PHI 31

31 points against SF looks good. But outside of 1 good drive, 24 points came from a bad call giving them a 4th down conversion, a fluke fumble on the SF 30, a roughing the punter, and a desperation failed 4th down giving them the ball on the SF 43.

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) February 5, 2023

Overview

• In my original Playoff Picks (where I went 6-0 in the AFC by the way, the 2nd time I’ve predicted the AFC perfectly since I started doing this 4 years ago), I predicted the Eagles would lose to the Cowboys in the Divisional Round. When the Giants beat the Vikings, they went to Philadelphia instead, so the Eagles got the easy win there. The next week, I picked the 49ers to win and reach the Super Bowl, which obviously didn’t go according to plan when Purdy got injured on the very first drive then 4th string backup Josh Johnson also got injured, meaning the Eagles didn’t face the real 49ers. All that to say, I’ve been relatively low on the Eagles for a while.
• After watching their season, I feel justified in those picks. Their first win over Dallas was thanks to Cooper Rush starting, and they lost the second one despite a good game from Minshew, I think Dallas would have beaten them had they actually played them.
• As for the 49ers, I also feel like, in a 10 game series, San Francisco would have won 6–7 times. As I noted in the tweet, the 31 points that people are getting hyped about were mostly a mirage. If Purdy started the entire game, 17 points likely come off the board. Purdy probably wouldn’t have fumbled the snap that gave the Eagles a 30-yard touchdown drive. They probably don’t get aggressive on the punt to extend another drive that ended in a touchdown. And of course with a closer game, they wouldn’t have gone for it on 4th down in desperation at the end of the game to set up another short touchdown drive. That leaves 14 points the Eagles scored against a healthy Purdy, and even that includes a bad call to convert a 4th down on their first touchdown drive. It’s hard to imagine a healthy Purdy wouldn’t be able to score 17 points or more.
• To the team itself, the first thing that sticks out when watching them is just how many sacks they get. They had 70 on the year, which is 15 more than the next most (coincidentally, the Chiefs). That naturally makes Chiefs fans nervous, since a pass rush dominating our backup offensive line was a major reason why they lost Super Bowl LV.
• But analytics have shown that sacks are driven in large part by the quarterback, and the Eagles had some of the worst quarterback play against them that I have ever seen. The best quarterbacks they faced were probably Dak, Aaron Rodgers during one of the worst years of his career, and maybe Trevor Lawrence. And this is reflected in the record of the teams they faced as well.

The Eagles have one win (including playoffs) over a playoff team with a positive point differential with their starting QB (JAX).

The Chiefs have 7 such wins (LAC 2x, SF, JAX 2x, SEA, CIN).

— Tony Sommer (@Tony_Sommer) January 30, 2023

• The pass rush could be their key to victory, but they could find it’s a double edge sword that masked other problems. I didn’t compile the stats, but it certainly seemed like the Eagles heavily relied on sacks to get stops. Despite the low quality of their opponents, it felt like teams could gain yards on them without much problem when they weren’t getting behind in the down and distance via sacks.
• You could argue that weak opponents isn’t a valid argument, since the Eagles didn’t choose their schedule and they did beat a lot of teams convincingly, including some teams that were pretty good even if they didn’t make the playoffs. For example, they destroyed the Titans 35-10 even though Tannehill was playing (Tennessee went 6-6 with Tannehill). Or their 24-7 win over the Vikings, who would have had a positive point differential if it wasn’t for this blowout.
• But I would contend that for every convincing win over a lesser team, there was also a game where they let the lesser team hang around. And not in the Chiefs-Colts type of way where they had all sorts of fluky things go against them. Like their game against the Cardinals, where the Eagles were a missed 43-yard field goal from going into overtime against a team that ended up with a top 3 pick, despite winning the turnover battle.
• Another example was the game against Washington that they lost. The stat sheet might convince you that the Eagles just got unlucky, but in reality, the Commanders already had the lead in the 4th quarter before the Eagles turned it over 3 more times. This was a game where the Eagles simply got outplayed.
• In short, when I look at the Eagles, I saw a team that was pretty good. They are definitely a legitimate playoff team, and will be one of the tougher teams the Chiefs have faced this year. However, I don’t think they’re quite as good as a lot of people think, especially if they face a team that can handle their pass rush and prevent Hurts from running all over them.

Tony Sommer

@Tony_Sommer

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