I Watched Every Eagles Game And All I Got Was This T-Shirt

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Tony took one for the team and watched every Philadelphia Eagles game from the 2022 season to see what could be learned, and this is what he found.

Just like 2019 and 2020, that was a lie, I didn’t actually get a T-shirt. But also like those years I did watch every single game our Super Bowl opponent, this time the Philadelphia Eagles, played in the 2022 season.

Overview

  • In my original Playoff Picks (where I went 6-0 in the AFC by the way, the 2nd time I’ve predicted the AFC perfectly since I started doing this 4 years ago), I predicted the Eagles would lose to the Cowboys in the Divisional Round. When the Giants beat the Vikings, they went to Philadelphia instead, so the Eagles got the easy win there. The next week, I picked the 49ers to win and reach the Super Bowl, which obviously didn’t go according to plan when Purdy got injured on the very first drive then 4th string backup Josh Johnson also got injured, meaning the Eagles didn’t face the real 49ers. All that to say, I’ve been relatively low on the Eagles for a while.
  • After watching their season, I feel justified in those picks. Their first win over Dallas was thanks to Cooper Rush starting, and they lost the second one despite a good game from Minshew, I think Dallas would have beaten them had they actually played them.
  • As for the 49ers, I also feel like, in a 10 game series, San Francisco would have won 6–7 times. As I noted in the tweet, the 31 points that people are getting hyped about were mostly a mirage. If Purdy started the entire game, 17 points likely come off the board. Purdy probably wouldn’t have fumbled the snap that gave the Eagles a 30-yard touchdown drive. They probably don’t get aggressive on the punt to extend another drive that ended in a touchdown. And of course with a closer game, they wouldn’t have gone for it on 4th down in desperation at the end of the game to set up another short touchdown drive. That leaves 14 points the Eagles scored against a healthy Purdy, and even that includes a bad call to convert a 4th down on their first touchdown drive. It’s hard to imagine a healthy Purdy wouldn’t be able to score 17 points or more.
  • To the team itself, the first thing that sticks out when watching them is just how many sacks they get. They had 70 on the year, which is 15 more than the next most (coincidentally, the Chiefs). That naturally makes Chiefs fans nervous, since a pass rush dominating our backup offensive line was a major reason why they lost Super Bowl LV.
  • But analytics have shown that sacks are driven in large part by the quarterback, and the Eagles had some of the worst quarterback play against them that I have ever seen. The best quarterbacks they faced were probably Dak, Aaron Rodgers during one of the worst years of his career, and maybe Trevor Lawrence. And this is reflected in the record of the teams they faced as well.

  • The pass rush could be their key to victory, but they could find it’s a double edge sword that masked other problems. I didn’t compile the stats, but it certainly seemed like the Eagles heavily relied on sacks to get stops. Despite the low quality of their opponents, it felt like teams could gain yards on them without much problem when they weren’t getting behind in the down and distance via sacks.
  • You could argue that weak opponents isn’t a valid argument, since the Eagles didn’t choose their schedule and they did beat a lot of teams convincingly, including some teams that were pretty good even if they didn’t make the playoffs. For example, they destroyed the Titans 35-10 even though Tannehill was playing (Tennessee went 6-6 with Tannehill). Or their 24-7 win over the Vikings, who would have had a positive point differential if it wasn’t for this blowout.
  • But I would contend that for every convincing win over a lesser team, there was also a game where they let the lesser team hang around. And not in the Chiefs-Colts type of way where they had all sorts of fluky things go against them. Like their game against the Cardinals, where the Eagles were a missed 43-yard field goal from going into overtime against a team that ended up with a top 3 pick, despite winning the turnover battle.
  • Another example was the game against Washington that they lost. The stat sheet might convince you that the Eagles just got unlucky, but in reality, the Commanders already had the lead in the 4th quarter before the Eagles turned it over 3 more times. This was a game where the Eagles simply got outplayed.
  • In short, when I look at the Eagles, I saw a team that was pretty good. They are definitely a legitimate playoff team, and will be one of the tougher teams the Chiefs have faced this year. However, I don’t think they’re quite as good as a lot of people think, especially if they face a team that can handle their pass rush and prevent Hurts from running all over them.
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Big Chief
Big Chief
02/06/2023 7:07 pm

Thanks for the review of the games!

gonzangkc11
gonzangkc11
02/06/2023 5:29 pm

2/12
Chiefs win SB by 10+ POINTS — maybe 14+ POINTS!!

Just like I typed for Chiefs/49ers SB — Chiefs would win by 10+ points

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
02/06/2023 4:55 pm

How many of these sacks came late in games when other teams were trying to catch up?

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
02/06/2023 2:09 pm

I’m curious what your overall opinion of hurts was. The games I’ve rewatched he was far more accurate than I thought he would be. I don’t think he’s as dynamic of a runner as say a lamar but he’s fast and picks good times to run. Their oline can obviously block well downfield on running plays.

Speaking of their oline. I didn’t think they looked great in straight up passing situations. Great run blocking but pure drop back plays they looked beatable. Thoughts?

KCChef
KCChef
Reply to  Tony Sommer
02/06/2023 9:55 pm

Soooo … Hybrid Spy / Run Stuffer LB Anyone ? … ; _

NovaChiefs
02/06/2023 9:29 am

Time to go 7-0 in the AFC

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