Chiefs Playoff Picture Week 15 – The Hardest Road

 45 replies

Ok, maybe not the hardest road, but it sure feels like it given we would have had the top seed wrapped up right now if it wasn’t for the refs the defense us losing to the Chargers in absolutely brutal fashion on Thursday.

But the past is in the past, and altogether we’re still in a pretty decent spot.

The Division

I will go through all the details (as usual), but with the Patriots losing it is basically win the division and get the 1 seed, or lose the division and get the 5 seed. It is impossible to get lower than the 5th seed (since other than the Chargers, every non-division winner will be at best 10-6), and if we win the division it will almost certainly mean doing enough to finish above the Texans and Patriots.

Last week our magic number in the division was 2, and it remains 2 with 2 games to go. That means we either need to win out, have the Chargers lose out, or us win lose one game and the Chargers lose one game and we got the division. Now the question is, how likely is that to happen?

We have at Seattle and the Raiders at home remaining. The Raiders at home is about as sure of a bet as you can get. If we can’t even beat them at home when we need it we might as well give up in the playoffs.  At Seattle will be a tough game, but we’re favored and rightfully so.

The Chargers have the Ravens at home this week, then go to Denver. Both of those games will be tough for them, although they’ll likely be favored in both.

In short, as long as we take care of business against Oakland, we only need 1 of those 3 tough games to go our way. It’s certainly possible for the Chargers to win the division, but it’s highly unlikely.

1st Seed

Having the 2nd best team in the conference makes this side of the equation pretty easy. Win the division, and we have the 1 seed.

Probably.

The Patriots, who looked like our biggest barrier last week, suddenly have been reduced to almost no threat at all. The only way they will impact us in any way is if we finish 0-2, the Chargers also finish 0-2, and the Patriots finish 2-0. That’s not going to happen.

Interestingly the Texans are now more likely to be an issue after I dismissed them last week. They needed the 6 combined remaining games on our schedules to go a certain way, and last week both games went just that way. They beat the Jets, and we lost to the Chargers. They have those same 3 scenarios open to them to pass us:

  • Texans go 2-0 and Chiefs go 0-2, or
  • Texans go 1-1 with the loss being against the Eagles and Chiefs go 0-2, or
  • Texans go 2-0 and Chiefs go 1-1, with the win being against Seattle

At least one of the bullets will get eliminated this week. If the Chiefs win, only the last bullet will remain. If both lose only the middle bullet will remain. If the Texans win and Chiefs lose only the first bullet will remain. If the Chiefs win and Texans lose then the Texans won’t be able to pass the Chiefs.

One consequence of this is that it seems unlikely that we’ll rest our starters in week 17. For us to clinch the 1 seed this week we need a win, a Chargers loss, and a Texan’s loss.

Summary

  • Win the division, and the 1 seed is almost certainly ours.
  • We clinch the division with a win and Chargers loss.
  • Patriots are very, very unlikely to be an issue.
  • The Texans could still pass us, but it’s highly unlikely.
  • Plan on us playing our starters against the Raiders in week 17. We only clinch our seed with a win, Chargers loss, and Texans loss.

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soybon
soybon(@soybon)
12/17/2018 9:50 pm

Basically, win out and you’re in. Otherwise, beat the Raiders and hope the Carson Chargers drop one.

legal_kush
legal_kush
12/17/2018 6:13 pm

I have this super-bizarre deja vu feeling, and I’m looking around like nobody has been listening, ‘specially ole crazy uncle Bob.
1. Win the division.
2. Secure a 1st round bye.
3. Get the #1 overall seed in the conference.
4. Win a home playoff game.
Anybody who thinks this list of goals was not achievable this year was just not willing to accept the inevitable Smith to Mahomes transition, which came an entire second half in the playoffs against the Titans last year too late for my taste.
Yep, rolling along on par, even got Berry back (for a half in which the D gave up seven), then, BOOM!
Bob Sutton decides we need more drama and pisses away a game nobody should ever lose in that situation, ever, in a professional league. He can’t see his chance to taste history if it’s dripping off his nose.

Super Ultimate Regular Guy
Super Ultimate Regular Guy(@super-ultimate-regular-guy)
Reply to  legal_kush
12/17/2018 8:40 pm

Hey Kush. Love that fuckin’name by the way. I have a question for you. I’m super wiped out from work and gonna pass out soon so
forgive me for being lazy and not reading the whole thread if you already answered this and I hope this makes sense but, I heard a guy today, who’s really knowledgeable about the game of football, much moreso than me, and he said Kendall Fuller was playing like shit the whole game. In many ways though, especially in the slot, he’s the best corner we have right now I feel. Also, Eric Berry was indeed furiously trying to get the defense into position, bringing up a discussion about Sutton honestly. My question is this: With Berry on the field, the defense is markedly better. How will Kendall Fuller’s absence with a broken wrist, affect Eric Berry to lead an otherwise mediocre defense to decent or good. To me personally, I think it’s going to be bigger than Fuller’s getting credit for. Thanks and GO CHIEFS!!

zulu trader
zulu trader(@zulu-trader)
12/17/2018 1:58 pm

Go Chiefs!

MasterChief
MasterChief(@masterchief)
Reply to  zulu trader
12/17/2018 2:17 pm

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buckthefroncos
buckthefroncos(@buckthefroncos)
12/17/2018 12:54 pm

Besides the obvious issues with Sutton, I kind of feel like we are ahead of schedule with this team. I wasn’t expecting this type of growth from Mahomes so quickly. I felt we would do well offensively, but this team has blown away my expectations. The Chargers loss was tough to swallow, but I think the window for this team hasn’t even gotten fully open. I’m still hopeful for a ring this year, but regardless of the final outcome, I am more excited about the future than I have been in over a decade.

starry1
starry1(@starry1)
Reply to  buckthefroncos
12/17/2018 1:45 pm

Very well said.

Chiefsfan115
Chiefsfan115(@chiefsfan115)
Reply to  buckthefroncos
12/17/2018 1:54 pm

Nothing is certain.
Dan Marino threw 48 touchdowns his second season in 1984, and never made it back to the Super Bowl.
Every NFL season is unpredictable.
Like we have seen with Alex Smith, one play could end Patrick Mahomes’ entire career . Nobody expected the Bears to be this good. Most people didn’t think the Chiefs would be this good.
The Chiefs should be making every effort possible to get to the Super Bowl right now. That’s why I was so disappointed the Chiefs did not try and shore up this defense before the trade deadline.
There is no guarantee the Chiefs will be in a position again during Mahomes’ career to be the number one seed in the AFC.

MasterChief
MasterChief(@masterchief)
Reply to  Chiefsfan115
12/17/2018 2:03 pm

You’re right, there are no guarantees in football, just like in life. But if we do have Mahomes on his feet and playing next year, we should have roughly the same offense out there and enough weapons that if someone goes down, it’s not the end. And then the defense can’t really get much worse. I expect we’ll improve the D through the draft/free agency.

I’m looking at next year thinking we’ll have Mahomes with a year of experience under his belt, the same weapons, and an improved defense. Look out, NFL!

Not only that, but Mahomes has impressed me so much that I think he will end up being one of the all-time greats, so I’ll never count him out.

Basically, I’d rather look at the bright side of the future rather than the dark side. The dark days will happen but I’ll worry about those days when we get there. There’s just too much upside with Mahomes the next couple years and then maybe 10-15 years down the road that the dark times will be overshadowed by the good times.

KCRowdy
KCRowdy(@kcrowdy)
Reply to  MasterChief
12/17/2018 2:37 pm

I’m a positive guy as well, but we can plan to help alleviate those dark days.. IMHO, after the season, no matter what the out come, its time for a new direction on defense: a new coordinator, a new philosophy, new and more talented players. This would go a long way to complimenting Mahomes and the offense. STs seems still legit despite Butt’s recent sphincter tightening during FGs AND PATs.

MasterChief
MasterChief(@masterchief)
Reply to  KCRowdy
12/17/2018 3:28 pm

Agreed. The D needs a big change.

A Lunar Ting
A Lunar Ting(@the-fresh-prince)
Reply to  buckthefroncos
12/17/2018 2:01 pm

Yes, to be a SB contender is a very big surprise this year. I DID have this team in the playoffs, but as probably the weakest playoff team in the fold as a 9-7 6 seed. That will not at all be the case- they’ll instead be one of the best 3-4 teams in the playoffs, and maybe the most likely of them all to go to the SB if they secure HFA. We’ve been way overdue for some happy accident to happen in the postseason… We may not need it however, this team is legit.

A Lunar Ting
A Lunar Ting(@the-fresh-prince)
Reply to  A Lunar Ting
12/17/2018 2:03 pm

I think we have a pretty good shot at a similarly good team next year as well, so this really does seem like a golden opportunity to win the SB.

Panzer85
Panzer85(@panzer85)
12/17/2018 12:30 pm

Sure this is gonna be a fight, but look at what we’re fighting for. As bad as the problems on defense are and coaching issues, we are talking about being upset by where we’re going to be IN THE FREAKING PLAYOFFS. Not long ago we were just happy to be in the Playoffs. This is unreal that we are bent outta shape because we might not be the #1 seed. I agree that the concerns are legitimate and they have to be fixed and the follow through has to be there before we deserve to be considered playoff contenders, but whatever the issues are on this team, we did NOT expect to be SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS this quickly. This team is our best shot at winning a trophy since 69 so get ready to cheer your balls off on Sunday when Mahomes and Co. put up 40 on the chickens.
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Mink Farmer
Mink Farmer(@mink-farmer)
Reply to  Panzer85
12/17/2018 12:31 pm

69. Lol.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater(@denverdonkeyhater)
Reply to  Panzer85
12/17/2018 12:43 pm

The sea chickens are not a top tier team. Their stadium is going to be rocking but no worse than The Stadium Formerly Known as Sports Authority on Monday night earlier this year.

Boob Sutton needs to get his team off the fucking field even if it means giving up a long play or 2, and Andy needs to trust Pat to move the ball.

hatcreekcattlecmpny
hatcreekcattlecmpny(@hatcreekcattlecmpny)
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
12/17/2018 1:11 pm

neither are the ravens and they took us to OT at home.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater(@denverdonkeyhater)
Reply to  hatcreekcattlecmpny
12/17/2018 1:18 pm

That’s a good comparison. The Ravens took us down to the wire with long drives and good defense. Really no different than the Sparklers game. Sea Chickens have the ability to do the same.

Old Boob needs to get his safeties involved more. I assume they’re on the field and prusumably preventing deep passes but we need them to actually make plays, even if it means giving up some deep passes.

01lowbird
01lowbird(@01lowbird)
Reply to  hatcreekcattlecmpny
12/17/2018 1:34 pm

This 100 times.
Seahawks have a better QB, need a win desperately, and have hfa.
Its not going to be an easy.

benson.rogers1
benson.rogers1(@benson-rogers1)
Reply to  Panzer85
12/17/2018 3:31 pm

And I will be there screaming my brains out! That stadium is another one that gets very loud and can very easily effect the outcome of the game. Our O needs to be ultra focused so as to not give up stupid off sides penalties at the most inopportune times. If we can stick to the game plan and execute, we should be able to take care of business.

Chiefsfan115
Chiefsfan115(@chiefsfan115)
12/17/2018 12:13 pm

The only positive to me now is that Andy Reid must play the starters against the Raiders. I went back and looked at all the Super Bowls, and only a mere four quarterbacks have rested week 17 (or their last week of the season in shorter years) and won their Super Bowl:
1. Bart Starr vs Chiefs
2. Ken Stabler vs Vikings
3. Brad Johnson vs Raiders
4. Drew Brees vs Colts

To me, it seems very clear playing starters Week 17 is the smart move.

Panzer85
Panzer85(@panzer85)
Reply to  Chiefsfan115
12/17/2018 12:33 pm

I’ve come to believe, at least on the Chief’s behalf, that bye-weeks just seem to end up making them lose momentum.

01lowbird
01lowbird(@01lowbird)
12/17/2018 11:59 am

I wanna win out regardless.
Feels like it builds confidence and steam going into the playoffs

MTChiefsFan
MTChiefsFan(@mtchiefsfan)
Reply to  01lowbird
12/17/2018 1:01 pm

13-3 isn’t my favorite record

Anthony Stratton
Anthony Stratton(@ta2tony21)
Admin
Reply to  MTChiefsFan
12/17/2018 1:23 pm

This is the year we get that monkey off our back.

01lowbird
01lowbird(@01lowbird)
Reply to  Anthony Stratton
12/17/2018 1:35 pm

some might say thats racist

John Doerty
John Doerty(@tsv0728)
Reply to  01lowbird
12/17/2018 3:49 pm

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KCRowdy
KCRowdy(@kcrowdy)
Reply to  01lowbird
12/17/2018 4:40 pm

Only a racist themselves would proclaim it’s racist.

starry1
starry1(@starry1)
Reply to  Anthony Stratton
12/17/2018 1:47 pm

Can we get Sutton off our backs too?

MasterChief
MasterChief(@masterchief)
Reply to  Anthony Stratton
12/17/2018 2:19 pm

Mahomes has been a real back-monkey assassin so far. Mahomes doesn’t fear the past!

ProfChesterTQ
ProfChesterTQ(@profchestertq)
Reply to  MTChiefsFan
12/17/2018 1:46 pm

Rec^50

KC15
KC15(@kc15)
12/17/2018 11:36 am

All of the sudden the chargers look like the best team in the afc. Beat us, pats lost two in a row, Steelers are still inconsistent, Texans have played a weak schedule and lost to the colts last week, Baltimore doesn’t have the qb to make a playoff run. Still, think the chargers are going to charger at some point, the way they beat us and Pittsburgh isn’t sustainable. Right now the super bowl spot in the afc looks like a toss up. I just hope we get things back on track this week and don’t keep the downward spiral going. I would like to see us hang 40 in Seattle in a blow out and get our groove back. We need to hold on for these last two games and hope that we can hit the playoffs health and ready to go

vvet818
vvet818(@vvet818)
Reply to  KC15
12/17/2018 11:47 am

We need to unleash the Mahomes!
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Anthony Stratton
Anthony Stratton(@ta2tony21)
Admin
Reply to  KC15
12/17/2018 1:22 pm

The Chargers, who lost to the Broncos, are the best team in the AFC?

KC15
KC15(@kc15)
Reply to  Anthony Stratton
12/17/2018 1:52 pm

I don’t believe it either, but who are you taking? We just lost to them and no one else is consistent

A Lunar Ting
A Lunar Ting(@the-fresh-prince)
Reply to  KC15
12/17/2018 2:13 pm

It’s really the Chiefs at this point that would have a legit argument, imo.

A Lunar Ting
A Lunar Ting(@the-fresh-prince)
Reply to  Anthony Stratton
12/17/2018 2:11 pm

I think there’s a legit argument for it if they win the division. Incumbent on the Chiefs to win the argument by not having another crummy loss. I definitely believe they are better than the Pats, Texans, Ravens, Steelers, and Colts.

KC15
KC15(@kc15)
Reply to  A Lunar Ting
12/17/2018 3:00 pm

maybe we are neck and neck. But it definitely feels like they are taking a step forward and we are taking a step back. If we don’t get over some of these injuries I don’t think we have much of a chance

Jdklks
Jdklks(@jdklks)
12/17/2018 11:29 am

Proving just how pivotal that Chargers game was. We went from the first seed locked up in week 15 to two must-win games in 4 disgustingly incompetent minutes. That was as close to a playoff game as you’re going to get in the regular season, and we lost in epic fashion. Sound familiar? This is one major reason why some of our anxiety levels have risen to 10/10, for all you “we’ve lost 3 games by a combined 7 points” people.

KC15
KC15(@kc15)
Reply to  Jdklks
12/17/2018 11:37 am

Definitely feels like a little foreshadowing

Okoye on Excellent
Okoye on Excellent(@okoye-on-excellent)
Reply to  Jdklks
12/17/2018 1:18 pm

Hello sadness, my old friend….yeah that game was so Kansas City its nauseating.

Anthony Stratton
Anthony Stratton(@ta2tony21)
Admin
Reply to  Jdklks
12/17/2018 1:21 pm

But it wasn’t a playoff game. If it were EB plays the entire game and we win.

benson.rogers1
benson.rogers1(@benson-rogers1)
Reply to  Anthony Stratton
12/17/2018 3:35 pm

Agreed. We only needed one stop at the end and it was over. I’m convinced EB would have made a play.

njchieffan16
njchieffan16(@njchieffan16)
Reply to  Jdklks
12/17/2018 1:35 pm

Let’s see how the D looks with EB back there for the majority of the game. I have a really good feeling that they will look better. The team knows what is at stake. I think they will pull it off, actually. And I’m normally pessimistic after losses.

vvet818
vvet818(@vvet818)
12/17/2018 11:26 am

Boy, I remember when 13-3 would be a shoo-in and now it’s almost a must.
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