Chiefs Playoff Picture: Week 11

 22 replies

Arrowhead Guys tells you who to root for this week!

Playoff Picture

1. Steelers (9-0)
2. Chiefs (8-1)
3. Bills (7-3)
4. Colts (6-3)
5. Raiders (6-3)
6. Dolphins (6-3)
7. Ravens (6-3)

8. Browns (6-3)
9. Titans (6-3)

I think it’s about time to retire the rooting rankings for the 2020 season, since it’s pretty clear who we should be rooting for (or more who we should be rooting against), so let’s spend that time digging into the standings.

First order of business, we should be rooting for the Ravens. I know it sounds crazy, but since we have the tiebreaker over them, we would effectively get a free win if they win the division over the Steelers, if we can’t get the tiebreaker win over them. Although if the Steelers lose 3 games it seems likely we would win the top seed anyway, but this would give us a bit more breathing room.

Secondly, a win this Sunday over the Raiders this week pretty much locks up the division. The Raiders would be 3 games back, and although they’d have a chance at the tiebreaker in that scenario, it seems highly unlikely that they’ll win 3 more games than the Chiefs in the last 6.

Back to the Steelers, and while obviously we want them to lose, who they lose to is extremely important. Since the top tiebreaker will be common games, the most important remaining games are the Broncos for us and the Ravens and Bills for them. As long as we take care of business against Denver a Steelers’ loss in either of those games gives us the tiebreaker. While a loss this week against the Jaguars would be nice, we’d much prefer them to lose their rematch against the Ravens in 2 weeks.

Short of that, we need them to lose AFC games. While a tie at 15-1 would still probably go to them even if they lost an AFC game, a tie at 14-2 or worse could go to us as long as our losses are to the NFC and theirs to the AFC. Given that their only remaining NFC game is against the Washington Football Team, while we have 3 NFC games against the Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons, a 14-2 or worse tie scenario would likely mean we get the tiebreaker.

In short, with a number of tough games remaining for both teams, it’s far too early to be worrying about the Steelers being ahead of us right now.

Now, back to the Raiders. I think they actually have the most interesting playoff scenario in the AFC right now, because of Derek Carr. He, more than most quarterbacks, performs relatively well in warm weather while struggling mightily in the cold (it’s not a coincidence that his first win in Kansas City was also the first time he played here when it wasn’t cold). That means that the Raiders more than anything want to avoid playing outdoors in the cold.  Obviously the simplest way to do that is to win the division and play in their nice comfy dome, but that’s unlikely to happen, even if they somehow win again this weekend. So from their likely wildcard spot what is their best path?

Those 9 teams are probably going to be make up the AFC playoffs (the current 10th place team is the 4-5 Patriots), and other than the AFC North (which doesn’t matter since every team is an outdoor cold weather team) and obviously the AFC West the division races are wide open.

For the AFC South, they would obviously prefer to play indoors in Indianapolis than outdoors in the relatively cold Nashville. But it’s the AFC East where the biggest difference lies. The division will come down to one of the coldest NFL cities in Buffalo or sunny and warm Miami. Thus, the Raiders should be hoping for the Colts and Dolphins to win their divisions, while we Chiefs fans should be hoping for Carr to embarrass himself while freezing in Buffalo.

 

 

 

 

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Berserker
Berserker
11/19/2020 4:42 pm

Carr would probably do better in cold weather if he’d stop shaving his arms.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  Berserker
11/19/2020 4:44 pm

and pass on the eyeliner too

Leaf
Reply to  steve_chiefs
11/19/2020 4:56 pm

Probably thinks the black absorbing the suns radiation will warm him up somehow

Last edited 9 days ago by Leaf
Berserker
Berserker
Reply to  Leaf
11/19/2020 5:01 pm

Somebody should probably just empty out the dude’s whole medicine cabinet for him. Leave him a toothbrush, and some Excedrin, and that’s it.

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon
11/19/2020 4:22 pm

I think we are inevitably going to see the extra teams added to the playoffs, so seeding wont be quite a big a deal as it looked like it would be. The way this thing is spreading theres just no way we arent going to have multiple games cancelled by the end of the season. Beat the fucking Raiders and who gives a shit about Rapistberger and the Stillers crappy schedule. We beat them 8 of 10 at home or on the road.

rip58lovealways
rip58lovealways
11/19/2020 1:59 pm

So your saying there’s a chance…….
It’s raider week… fuck the raiders..

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
11/19/2020 12:23 pm

Hate to say it, but the steelers could run their schedule going into the playoffs. Find it hard to believe they could actually do it, but their remaining schedule isn’t that tough.

upamtn
11/19/2020 11:33 am

with all due respect: we Chiefs fans should be hoping for our team to win, one game at a time … IMO
comment image

workingmansdead
Reply to  upamtn
11/19/2020 12:24 pm

Is there a reason you think we shouldn’t talk about anything other the one upcoming game?

upamtn
Reply to  workingmansdead
11/19/2020 4:11 pm

see what MasterChief said below …

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
Reply to  upamtn
11/19/2020 12:37 pm

If we win the Raiders game, we’ve locked up the division.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
Reply to  HawaiiFiveOh
11/19/2020 1:08 pm

And what I mean by this is the Chiefs have 3 more likely wins on the schedule with the Broncos, Falcons, and Chargers. Winning against the Raiders this week puts them are 9-1. Winning those 3 games puts them at 12-1. At worst they end up 12-4. The Raiders would be 6-4 after this week. They’ll end up either 11-5 or 10-6 with losses to the Colts and/or Miami. If they win out, they’ll still be 12-4 and KC would hold the tie breakers.

upamtn
Reply to  HawaiiFiveOh
11/19/2020 4:12 pm

yup, pretty much

MasterChief
MasterChief
Reply to  upamtn
11/19/2020 1:28 pm

Agreed for the most part because it’s a long season and we’re only halfway through; however, this is more useful for the players than the fans. The players should be thinking about the raiders and only the raiders right now.

As fans, we can look ahead as far as our imaginations can see and the only real downfall is setting ourselves up for disappointment.

upamtn
Reply to  MasterChief
11/19/2020 4:11 pm

this^^^ … so tired of the “prelude to WTF-Just Happened” … I much prefer to just enjoy the games for what they are: entertainment … let the moment unfold, the rest will take care of itself (that’s as a fan … the players have no business doing anything OTHER than staying on focus one play at a time)

MasterChief
MasterChief
Reply to  upamtn
11/19/2020 4:26 pm

For my entire Chiefs fanhood, I doubted that I’d ever get to be a champ. Now that we’ve won a SB, the pressure isn’t what it used to be.

The bottom line is that anything can happen. Another SB is not a given, so let’s just enjoy every week for what it is. Right now is an amazing time to be a Chiefs fan!

Berserker
Berserker
Reply to  MasterChief
11/19/2020 4:40 pm

That’s kind of like how I used to obsess over the draft, until we drafted Mahomes. Now I just sit back and see every new player we pick as a bonus instead of a dire need.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  Berserker
11/19/2020 4:42 pm

i’m in the same boat

We had to have a perfect everything else to help overcome a decent QB

With Mahomes we just need to surround him with good players

Berserker
Berserker
Reply to  steve_chiefs
11/19/2020 4:53 pm

Me watching the draft before Mahomes:
comment image

Berserker
Berserker
Reply to  Berserker
11/19/2020 4:53 pm

Me watching the draft since Mahomes: comment image

NovaChiefs
NovaChiefs
Reply to  Berserker
11/19/2020 11:12 pm

I think you could use these for all Chiefs related activities

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