Tony’s Picks: Week 6

 75 replies

Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.

 

Last week: 6-8

Overall: 48-30

Home Teams (Benchmark): 37-41

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 47-31

This week: 14-0

CHIEFS (-10.5) over Broncos

Favorites had a bad week last week, going just 8-6. I did a bit worse, although I’m not too upset. I picked Houston over Atlanta, but I knew it’d be close and it was. I picked the Cardinals over the Bengals assuming Burrow would continue to struggle given his bad leg, but he seems to be mostly recovered. The main one I feel like I got fundamentally wrong was picking the Rams over the Eagles. But I made up for that by picking the Jets over the Broncos, which I would think would be easy but the money keeps thinking the Broncos will win (they’ve been favored in 4 of their first 5 games!).

Anyway, the Chiefs have won 15 in a row against Denver, and there is every reason to believe that will get to 16 tonight. We have looked a little shaky so far this season, but only if we lose to a team like the Broncos would it be time to really panic.

Ravens (-4) over TITANS

Most NFL fans don’t really care about the business side of the NFL, but you’re starting to see the plan here with yet another London game. They are acting cautiously (which is good), slowly increasing the games played overseas.

But the plan couldn’t be more clear. they want a team in London. More specifically, they want the Jaguars in London. They already played back-to-back games there, and before you know it they’ll be playing 3 games in a row there. Then 4. Then 8. Then they’ll move there permanently and become the London Jaguars.

The same process will happen in Germany. Some team will take a liking to currywurst and schnitzel and decide to take the Jaguars path with Munich or Frankfurt. And before you know it we’ll have a full 4 team division on the other side of the ocean.

And that’s why I’m confident the Ravens will win.

FALCONS(-2.5) over Commanders

I was thinking Washington might maybe be pretty decent now that they aren’t weighed down by Wentz. And through 4 games you could see it with their wins over the Cardinals and Broncos but losses to good teams like Buffalo and Philly.

But losing to Chicago by 20 is inexcusable. You can’t say you’re a competent team if you’re losing games like that.

Vikings (-2.5) over BEARS

I don’t understand the Vegas lines with the Vikings. Last week the Chiefs were favored by just 3.5 in Minnesota, indicating that the Vikings weren’t completely out of their league. But now the Vikings are only favored by 2.5 over Chicago, indicating the Bears aren’t that far away from the Vikings. Something isn’t adding up here.

BENGALS (-3) over Seahawks

Is Burrow officially healthy now? I know Arizona doesn’t have the greatest defense but he looked legitimately good. If he is healthy, the Bengals should probably be favored by much more than 3. But if that was a fluke game, Seattle will likely win.

49ERS (-5.5) over BROWNS

Deshaun Watson hasn’t been good since being traded to Cleveland, but he is still clearly a step above rookie Dorian Thompon-Robinson. This line is surprisingly low given that it’s unlcear if Watson will be playing. If it’s DTR out there, the 49ers should easily win by double digits. If it’s Watson, the 49ers should still win by double digits but have a slightly tougher time doing it.

DOLPHINS (-13.5) over Panthers

This line might be too low. This is such a huge mismatch I wouldn’t be completely surprised if the Dolphins win by 50 again.

Lions (-3) over BUCCANEERS

I’m so excited for this game. Tampa Bay has looked actually decent this year, and now they get a good test. The Lions are good, but not dominant. Tampa Bay is at home coming off a bye week. This is a good opportunity for them to get a good win and show they’re for real (at least for real as a legitimate playoff team).

JAGUARS (-4) over Colts

These teams are virtually identical in my eyes. I thought I’d be way lower on Jacksonville than everybody else, but this line indicates that Vegas views them as only slightly better than Indianapolis. I’ll go with Jacksonville just because they’re at home (and they already beat the Colts in Indy), but I wouldn’t be shocked if Minshew gets the win in his old home.

TEXANS over Saints (-1.5)

My only upset pick of the week, and I understand why the Saints could be favored. But to me these two teams are very close, so I’m giving the tie to the home team.

RAIDERS (-3) over Patriots

Can you believe Bill Belichick is actually on the hot seat? There have been whispers about it ever since the offseason, but now it seems like a very real possibility.

Honestly I think they should. Not that their next coach is likely to be better (the vast majority of head coaches get fired within a couple years), but Belichick is 71 years old and it’s not clear how much longer he has. With another Super Bowl appearance looking unlikely in the near future it’d be best for them to start looking for the next answer there as soon as possible.

RAMS (-7) over Cardinals

This will be a surprisingly interesting game. Both have shown signs of life at various points in the season. But both have also failed to show any sort of consistent level of above average play. The Cardinals at 1-4 are probably too far out of it to realistically make the playoffs, but the Rams at 2-3 should be good enough to have a chance, but only if they get wins in games like this one.

Eagles (-7) over JETS

Jalen Hurts has won 22 of his last 23 regular season starts, an absolutely unbelievable stat. But almost more unbelievable is how horrible his opponents have been. The best team in his division during that time, Dallas, he has conveniently missed when Dak is playing. Otherwise he has almost exclusively the worst quarterbacks the league has to offer.

He’s playing the Jets this week, which I promise is completely unrelated to the rant above. No, I swear.

BILLS (-14) over Giants

The Giants have won 1 game. In their other 4 they’ve lost by 40, by 18, by 21, and by 15 (this one requiring them to win the turnover battle 3-0). I never ever put money on favorites with large point spreads, but this one is tempting.

Cowboys (-2) over CHARGERS

I’m a bit shocked (pun intended) that the Chargers are only 2 point underdogs. to the Cowboys, even at home. Did Dallas’ destruction at the hand of the 49ers really shake people’s confidence in them that much? I guess there’s that loss to the Cardinals too.

But isn’t this the exact type of game the Chargers would lose? Facing a team coming in with major questions, on national television. And then LAC lays down and makes the other team look like they’re back.

 

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Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 6:55 pm

well crap

Scalise removes himself from contention for Speaker

probablyamistake
10/12/2023 6:36 pm

Taylor in the house!!!

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 6:25 pm
upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 6:31 pm

mmmmmmmk, all y’all hold down the fort for me *riiiiiiiiiiiiip* have a blast … Wichita have a blast …

Geaux Chiefs

Geaux Swifties

rip58
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 6:51 pm

You as well….. let’s do this …!!!

gonzangkc11
10/12/2023 6:11 pm

100%
LOVE STEVE SMITH SR
COMMENTS….ABOUT sky moore & Broncos wr

HE’S TALKING

F
A
C
T
S

gonzangkc11
Reply to  gonzangkc11
10/12/2023 6:12 pm

A few minutes ago on NFL NETWORK was his LIVE comments. 👏 👏 👏 👏

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:55 pm

Hello RIP

here we are

rip58
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:58 pm

No 5:30 thread, on. A game day …. WTF ..

upamtn
Reply to  rip58
10/12/2023 6:00 pm

I don’t make the scheduled schedule, I just report it to Chiefs Kingdom (or AG-Dom or whatever) …

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 6:01 pm

I am just here for the PARTY

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 6:03 pm

yeah, but are you a REDNECK woman?

rip58
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 6:08 pm

I like my women hot…
My beer cold….
And my AG.. at 5:30…..😎

upamtn
Reply to  rip58
10/12/2023 6:10 pm

AG *was* here at 530 … go drink a hot beer, it’ll go down well with your cold woman 😉

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 6:23 pm

I fear this thing is gonna start soon Robert

so needless, it makes me sick

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 6:29 pm

oh THAT thing …

you have to forget about it, let your mind wander and be free, and soon you’ll BE at The Sacred Acre, in your heart and in your soul, and so it is written or typed and so it shall be or not, but you MUST take care of YOU: do that and the rest shall take care of itself and the Chiefs will win by 8 Million Points and all will be right with the universe

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 6:32 pm

Bless you father 🙂

upamtn
Reply to  rip58
10/12/2023 6:12 pm

I like my women hot…

oh wait … Steve’s YOUR here for the party girl!

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 6:15 pm

hey wait a moment

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:52 pm

So I ask

while waiting

Do you think the Chiefs adjust their schedule drastically for the Germany game or not? We have the bye week after it is over…..

gonzangkc11
10/12/2023 5:50 pm

TE Travis Kelce (ankle), DE George Karlaftis (hamstring) and P Tommy Townsend (left knee) will all go tonight.

gonzangkc11
10/12/2023 5:50 pm

Chiefs inactive list vs. Broncos on Thursday night in Week 6:

G/C Mike Caliendo
DE BJ Thompson
DT Keondre Coburn
DT Neil Farrell
CB Nic Jones

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:40 pm

Drue Tranquill is runnibg around on the field barefoot?

gonzangkc11
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:48 pm

I”m running around NAKED

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  gonzangkc11
10/12/2023 5:49 pm

be safe

the game is still 2 hours away

upamtn
Reply to  gonzangkc11
10/12/2023 5:58 pm

TMI

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:58 pm

huh?

upamtn
10/12/2023 5:40 pm

game breads and threads

700 Q1
745 Q2
835 Q3
935 Q4
1015 Post Toasties Game Bread

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:43 pm

thanks ups

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:57 pm

you is welcome, my friend … but you’re gonna have to copy / paste in the Q1 thread, then designate rip or hoosier to c/p in Q2 and so on … gotta keep Chiefs Kingdom in the loop (enough Bert’s and we can get REALLY looped)

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 6:00 pm

you’s crazy

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 6:02 pm

that I is, my friend!

course, you’ve known this for a LONG time

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:23 pm

Ag Reporter Wichita reports that the Taylor swift bat signal is indeed in place for tonight in Arrowhead

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:37 pm

I haven’t seen anything about whatsername being there or not … then too, I haven’t looked or cared much

but hey, if it helps ’em win: shoot her a msg in the sky

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:39 pm

what kind of reporter are you

CNBC already reported she was at arrowhead 🙂

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:40 pm

for realz?

well ok then … the circus is in town! 😉

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:05 pm

AG on the Field reporter

Wichita Chief is going in to verify Taylor Swift is at the game…..

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:08 pm

yesssssssssssssss

and gets into the suite?

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:09 pm

you sir seem to be the perfect candidate,,,,,

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:13 pm

wouldn’t that be … sweet (SWIDT)

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:14 pm

Wichita and Tony

not Wichita and Taylor

I got pics of Mahomes kissing on his wife……

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:19 pm

I’ve duly passed along your sentiments vis-a-vis pix or it never happened, the Chiefs better win or neither of ’em can home

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:20 pm

awesome!!

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:13 pm

we need pictures of the game from newbie Tony of his 1st experience on the sacred acres…..

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:08 pm

I forgot that AG boss Tony is also feasting on kettlecorn tonight at Arrowhead

Seems someone should negotiate a meet up

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:14 pm

he gets ALL the kettlecorn … sometimes life just is not fair

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:16 pm

bah humbug

I don’t want to deal with all that celebrity bullshit

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 4:40 pm

so

The Bengals (2-3) looked supremely ugly for four weeks, but against the Cardinals in Week 5, Joe Burrow finally looked himself, slinging it downfield to the uncoverable Ja’Marr Chase. And, really, that says it all in Cincinnati. Provided he doesn’t suffer further injury, Burrow’s pocket poise, coupled with the Bengals’ top-10 pass defense, should make them an AFC contender again.

and they feel better cause they beat….

The Cardinals (1-4) have been much feistier than expected under Jonathan Gannon, but the seams started to show a bit on Joshua Dobbs at QB in Week 5, and the talent disparity between Arizona and its opponents will eventually take its toll. The Vikings (1-4) have gotten quality stuff from both Kirk Cousins and Brian Flores’ aggressive defense, but they’ve got zero ground game, a penchant for ill-timed giveaways and now a banged-up Justin Jefferson. The Titans (2-3) may always be physical under Mike Vrabel, but their old-school approach with the fading duo of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry has left them offensively challenged yet again. And the Raiders (2-3), while scrappy on defense against the Packers, are just as plodding when they have possessions; Josh Jacobs is struggling to get even four yards a carry, and we can’t forget Jimmy Garoppolo’s medical track record that quickly.

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 3:50 pm

THE BRONCOS ARE at, or near, the bottom of almost every major defensive statistical category.
“Just got to be better,” an exasperated Simmons said after giving up 234 rushing yards Sunday. “It’s going to start with the leadership, myself and the backers getting guys lined up.”
It is a seemingly annual struggle with the circumstances that has led him to “really concentrate on being where my feet are.” Simmons wasn’t in uniform for the 70-20 nightmare loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, but he felt “responsible” for some of the defensive meltdown even as he was sidelined with a hip injury.
And as the Broncos continue to try to dig out from that historical loss, Simmons said the challenge for the defense, especially the younger players, is to repair the damage without trying to do too much, reach too far, to make some of the plays to set things right.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38635824/denver-broncos-justin-simmons-longest-tenured

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:23 pm

a 70 pt meltdown will do that to stats … pts, passing yds allowed, total yds allowed, etc

one is tempted to say it’s a small sample size (5 games) but it’s absolutely true: the Donkeys (esp Defense) Suck

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 3:40 pm

The strength of the 3-2 Cowboys is supposed to be their defense, but as they enter Monday’s game against the 2-2 Los Angeles Chargers (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN) there are questions about just how good they are and how good they can be.
“I think you’re right to say every time you’ve got to get it on at this level,” defensive coordinator Dan Quinn said. “And when we do that, we’re pretty hard to deal with.”
Yes, against the offenses ranked 32nd (Patriots), 31st (Giants) and 24th (Jets) in points per game, the Cowboys were dominant. They scored three touchdowns on two interception returns by DaRon Bland and a fumble return by Leighton Vander Esch. They recorded 12 sacks and 10 takeaways. They gave up just one touchdown.

https://www.espn.com/blog/dallas-cowboys/post/_/id/4777011/were-a-great-defense-cowboys-d-aims-to-rebound-vs-chargers

The Cowboys have seven games remaining against offenses that are currently ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 in points per game in the Miami DolphinsBuffalo BillsDetroit LionsPhiladelphia EaglesSeattle Seahawks and Chargers, respectively. They already faced the second-highest scoring team, San Francisco.

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 3:40 pm

Dallas has a problem

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:24 pm

Dallas always has problems, that’s the only way most of America can tolerate that franchise (is Jerry Jones dead yet?)

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:27 pm

yes

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 3:16 pm

The Denver Broncos plan to move on from Frank Clark, whether via a trade or releasing the veteran outside linebacker, sources told ESPN’s Field Yates on Thursday.
Clark agreed to a restructured deal Wednesday, giving back $1.686 million in guaranteed salary, perhaps making his contract more attractive on the trade market.

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 2:43 pm

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports the Broncos are expected to activate TE Greg Dulcich off injured reserve for Week 6 against the Chiefs.
Dulcich was listed as questionable heading into Thursday but the Broncos are now expected to have their second-year tight end back. Dulcich hasn’t played since injuring his hamstring in Week 1, but should provide a boost to a Broncos passing attack that’s currently ranked 13th in passing yards per game. Fantasy managers who have stashed Dulcich should approach him with caution this weekend, as it’s possible he’ll be on a snap count in his return.
1h ago
Source: Jeremy Fowler

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 2:39 pm

weather is beautiful for tonights game

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:24 pm

get some BBQ for me

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:28 pm

I do not 🙁

upamtn
Reply to  Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 5:35 pm

no? (sad face)

Steve_Chiefs
Reply to  upamtn
10/12/2023 5:37 pm

I cannot live on BBQ

I would be dead already

eat moar chiken

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 2:27 pm

hahhahhaha

I would put a lock on the Broncos receiving the kickoff whatever the coin toss is….

Steve_Chiefs
10/12/2023 2:22 pm

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Travis Kelce (ankle) is expected to play on Thursday night against the Broncos.
It was reported on Wednesday that Kelce was expected to play in Week 6, but Thursday’s report from Schefter further adds to the likelihood of the start tight end suiting up. Kelce was listed as a DNP on the team’s estimated practice report Monday, but logged back-to-back limited sessions in preparation for Thursday’s game. Fantasy managers can slot him into his typical TE1 role against a porous Broncos defense.
17m ago
Source: ESPN.com

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