Tony’s Picks: Week 11

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.

 

Last week: 7-7

Overall: 86-63-1

Home Teams (Benchmark): 84-65-1

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 92-57-1

This week: 14-0

Titans over Packers

Last week was starting out good, as I was 6-2 at the end of the early games. But the late games featured a rash of upsets, with San Francisco being the only favorite to win after 3 pm Sunday. While that’s very good for the Chiefs, it is bad for my picks.

For this game, I’m a bit surprised the Packers are favored. Sure, they’re at home. And sure, they have Aaron Rodgers. But what exactly have the Packers done to inspire any confidence? I’m pretty sure this is more Vegas not believing in Tennessee at all, but why should we believe they’re worse than the Packers?

Falcons over Bears

Justin Fields has looked a lot better the past couple games. I’m not convinced it’s not a fluke (hence the Falcons pick), but if it is, the Bears franchise will finally be heading in the right direction.

Ravens over Panthers

Do I really need to explain this one?

Bills over Browns

This would be an easy pick, but Buffalo could be buried under a giant blanket of snow. That could neutralize Buffalo’s passing advantage and give the advantage to the Browns’ superior ground game. I’m still going to go with the Bills for now, though.

Commanders over Texans

The Texans are in a good spot to win the top draft pick. The Raiders are the only team within a half of them in the draft standings, and they’re not quite as bad as their record shows. The Texans will continue their march to stability.

Eagles over Colts

Just like the Chiefs had a fluke loss to the Colts, the Eagles are coming off their fluke loss to the Commanders. With that out of their system, they have little problem in their Colts game.

Jets over Patriots

This is the 2nd time these two teams will play each other in 3 weeks. That seems like a bizarrely short turnaround time, but who am I to question the omniscience of the NFL scheduling gods?

Saints over Rams

Who would have guessed before the season that the Rams would be underdogs to the Saints? This must be one of the worst seasons a defending champ has ever had, made worse now that they’re without their best player on offense in Cooper Kupp.

Giants over Lions

If you want to see how little Vegas is buying into the Giants, just look at the point spread in this game. The 7-2 Giants are a mere 3 point favorite at home against the 3-6 Lions. That is completely absurd. I know it’s very much a casual thing to overrate records, but that line implies these teams are roughly equal. What reason is there to believe the Lions are even close to as good as the Giants?

Raiders over Broncos

Do I have to think about this game? You know what, it’s my site, I can do what I want! I’m boycotting talking about this disaster in the making!

Chiefs over Chargers

This game makes me a bit nervous. Yes, the Chiefs are better, but the Chargers always play us tough. And they’re also probably getting Kennan Allen and Mike Williams back. I won’t breathe a sigh of relief for this one until the clock hits 0:00.

Vikings over Cowboys

I know, I know, this is such a square pick. The Cowboys just lost to the Packers while the Vikings won the game of the year against the Bills, so of course everybody expects the Vikings to be better. But I genuinely think the Vikings are a better team.

Steelers over Bengals

TJ Watt finally returned, and judging by the Steelers’ win/loss record with and without him, he’s the most important non-QB in the NFL. Pittsburgh won their first game without him this season, but that was just one of the seven games they played between week 1 when he got injured and last week when he returned. Considering that impact, plus Burrow’s particular susceptibility to pressure, I’m actually going with the Steelers here.

49ers over Cardinals

The 49ers have started looking much better since they started getting some of their guys back from injury. In fact, I would go as far as to argue that they’re one of the top contenders in the NFC. While Arizona is decent, the 49ers should absolutely win this game.

 

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NovaChiefs
11/17/2022 2:38 pm

Bengals over Steelers is my only niggle.
Chargers always give us fits and I don’t expect them to gift us a pick 6 again. Still think we win, but they always worry me more than the donks or faiders. Guess we get to see how legit the rookies are back there.

upamtn
11/17/2022 2:06 pm

not much to disagree with … I think Bears are better than Falcons at this point, but we shall see, and hard to image Steelers beating Bengals (but stranger things happen all the time)

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
11/17/2022 1:40 pm

. I won’t breathe a sigh of relief for this one until the clock hits 0:00.

And we have the lead.

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