Should The Chiefs Fire Andy Reid?
65 repliesTony addresses the “Fire Andy Reid” crowd
I’ve been seeing a few people advocate for firing Reid, especially if the Chiefs don’t win the Super Bowl this year. The frustration is understandable; if you were old enough to remember watching the Chiefs play in a Super Bowl you’re probably old enough to be collecting a Social Security check.
Combined with Reid’s history, where he has failed to win a Super Bowl, and now that we have a truly elite quarterback he should be out of excuses. If he doesn’t win one soon then maybe he never will.
I prefer to analyze things more analytically and not put so much trust in gut feelings, so let’s break it down and see if an answer emerges. The first step is looking over our options, of which there are two:
- Keep Reid
- Hire a new unknown coach
The word “unknown” is very important here. If we were facing a situation where a Bill Belichick was knocking on our door saying he’ll be our next coach if we fire Reid you’d have a strong argument. But unfortunately we’re not facing that situation, we’re facing a situation where we’d be picking from a pool of unproven coaches.
But let’s dig into the keeping Reid option first. On the surface keeping him seems like the obvious choice. Reid is one of the most successful coaches in NFL history, with the 6th most regular season wins and the 7th most playoff wins.
That success has carried over to his stint in Kansas City. Since his hire the Chiefs have the 3rd highest winning percentage in the NFL, only behind the Patriots and Seahawks. While the playoff record is less impressive, only 10 teams have had more playoff wins in that time.
From that point of view it’s hard to imagine why anybody would want to fire him. But the argument goes that Reid should be better in the playoffs. He has a losing record in the playoffs, and has never won a Super Bowl. The argument must be that this drop in performance in the playoffs is due to some property Reid has that prevents him from being as successful as he should be in the playoffs, a property that another coach might not have.
The problem is that a drop in winning percentage in the playoffs does not necessarily mean that the coach is actually any worse at winning a playoff game. In fact some drop is expected, since playoff teams are going to be better on average than regular season opponents.
That being said an actual losing record is unusual for a top coach. Of the 24 coaches who have had 15+ playoff games, Reid is one of only 4 who have a losing record (the others being Bud Grant, Tony Dungy, and Marty Schottenheimer).
But that still doesn’t mean there’s some immutable property Reid has that causes him to be worse in the playoffs than other coaches. In fact, the cause of this poor performance could be the exact opposite. It’s entirely possible that Reid is consistently given teams that under a normal coach would miss the playoffs, but because he’s so good he’s able to take them to the playoffs anyway. But in the playoffs when faced with teams that have both talent and good coaching, it’s just too much.
There is some evidence for this view. Not counting this season (since we haven’t seen the playoffs yet), Reid has coached 20 seasons and made the playoffs 14 times.
Let’s compare him to Chuck Noll, who coached a similar number of seasons and is presumably the type of coach we’d hope to get if we fired Reid given his 4 Super Bowl rings. He has a winning record in the playoffs (16-8), but only made the playoffs 12 times in his 23 seasons. That’s 11 seasons where he wasn’t even able to get the opportunity to lose a playoff game.
If you count missing the playoffs as a playoff loss (since it has the same effect, you don’t win the Super Bowl), and Reid’s record becomes 12-20 while Noll’s is 16-19. Noll is still better, but suddenly that gap doesn’t seem quite as large.
And remember, Noll is exceptional even by Hall of Fame standards. There is virtually no chance we would be able to find a coach of his ability.
To make an apples-to-apples comparison between our two options, we need to know what the odds are of Reid having this sucking in the playoffs quality. Given the evidence, I’d say most people would agree it’s less than 50%. It’s certainly less than something like 70%.
Keep that number in mind.
Before we move on to the hypothetical new coach we have one more thing to consider about Reid. Given that Reid now has an elite quarterback, what should our expectations be? How many years should we give the Reid-Mahomes pairing before moving on?
Let’s say they should have success at the level of the Brady-Belichick Patriots (I’d say this standard is more than fair for the anti-Reid folks). They have won 6 Super Bowls in 17 seasons (not counting 2008 when Brady was injured and 2019 which hasn’t ended yet). That’s a Super Bowl win rate of 35%, or roughly once every 3 years.
Even by that standard (which, again, is absolutely ridiculously unfair) the chances of not winning the Super Bowl in any 3 year stretch is 27%. While unlikely, it’s high enough that you can’t be confident that you’re not throwing away greatness.
Ok, now we’re to the point of looking at any potential new coaches, which is where I believe the crux of the problem lies. The chances of hiring a bad coach are far, far higher than a lot of people seem to think. Maybe because the Chiefs have been blessed with mostly good coaches over the last 30 years.
I would argue that the chances of any new coach being a dud are between 80%-90%. Does that seem high? Just take a look.
Let’s examine the 37 coaches hired between 2011-2015. We’ll do this since it’s not only the time that Reid was hired, but these coaches have given us enough time to judge them. The results:
30 have been fired
2 will almost certainly be fired this year (Dan Quinn and Jason Garrett)
2 retired (Gary Kubiak and Bruce Arians)
3 are still around (Andy Reid, Bill O’Brien, Mike Zimmer)
So of those 37, 32 were fired and thus few would argue are the type of coach we’d hope to get when replacing Reid. That’s already 86% of coaches who aren’t even arguably an upgrade over Reid.
But I doubt many people would be happy is we replaced Reid, who has 2 playoff wins in Kansas City, with O’Brien or Zimmer, who have a single playoff win each (with Zimmer’s requiring a miracle). That’s now 92% who aren’t an upgrade over Reid.
So even if you say that both Kubiak and Arians would be an upgrade over Reid (which I think most people would say is generous), if you fire Reid there’s a 90% chance that you’re going to end up with a downgrade.
So when you put it altogether, the answer to if we should fire Reid becomes clear.
About Author
so, Reid … SEVEN seasons in KC and SEVEN consecutive winning seasons, six playoffs, 4 consecutive AFC West titles
y’all just don’t “replace” that
Complacency is not an option. Veach should be continuously looking to better the roster. The Chiefs should be continuously striving to better the organization, including training staff, front office, coaching staff etc. This discussion about Big Red must not be avoided. There’s no doubt Reid is a very good coach and it would be hard to do better than him but that shouldn’t stop the team from trying to do so. (As an aside iirc Pete Carroll of the Seahawks came from the college ranks -USC?- and that’s one example of success, just saying.) Andy has three years of contract after this year and I want him to stay. I also would like to see Eric Bieniemy stay however it’s likely he’ll move on over the next three years. Thinking outside the box: is there a way to induce Bieniemy to stay with Reid in a hybrid HC/OC format? This is the kind of thinking that might address Reid’s game-clock management, critical juncture play-calling and or other deficiencies. Good post, good discussion.
I understand that many have been fired. But that doesn’t take into account which teams were hiring coaches and how well they have been managed and how often they make poor decisions. And even when considering the amounts that didn’t pan out, is wallowing in permanent playoff mediocrity with a coach who has proven over 20+ years that he simply isn’t good in the playoffs really any better? If our ultimate goal is to reach the Superbowl but we waste the prime years of our elite QB on a guy who cannot reach the Superbowl because of fatal flaws that might be even more stupid and wasteful. I’m not advocating Reid’s firing yet but this is something that really needs to be thought about carefully.
24-3 vs the AFC West.
I’ll go now…
I think this may be KC’s best shot in many, many years at advancing deep into the tournament. They’ve faced about every kind of adversity, they know what they can do with virtually all their backups. The 2019 draft looks like quite a success. Gee, I wonder what Veach might do with an actual 1st-round pick…
When I look at Reid’s struggles in the playoffs, starting with 2013, I mostly see a team built a bit like the Chargers, every year. A plausible starting lineup, but not much depth. Limping our way into the playoffs, or boom-boom-boom, 3 guys go down, and KC doesn’t really have an answer. I don’t really see the signs of anybody being over-utilized and wearing out, except my guy, Darrel Williams got himself dinged-up, right when I was gettin’ used to seein’ #31 on the field.
To entertain this idea is idiotic. Shut up go home.
I thought “Yes, his time is done,” when we got punched in the mouth by our opponents early in the season. But it’s really starting to look like Veach drafted well, and Dorsey’s last draft just got an upgrade, from the way Kpass is performing in their defense. I’m not sure I wouldn’t flip him inside and Jones outside half the time or more. He can be halfway through the A gap before the O-Lines all the way up out of their stance. I used to love when Derrick Thomas would do that. Always wondered why they didn’t do it more.
^Hell yes, mix it up and put the offense on their heels!
This is the most asinine thing I have read on this site. We don’t need to figure out if Andy has some “bad playoff gene.” We know that Andy Reid eschews analytics, makes bad in-game decisions, has horrific clock management, and does not keep the throttle down with a lead. He loses in the playoffs because in the playoffs, you are playing the best teams and those bad tendencies get magnified in the biggest games. We have 20 years of history proving what Reid can and can’t do. But hey, you have completely fabricated statistics on your side!
“Everybody knows” isn’t all that authoritative, especially considering that he didn’t lose every playoff game he’s coached. So, about fabrication…
Nice strawman. I didnt say he lost every playoff game he ever played. I said he loses in the playoffs, which he has done, every single year he has been in the playoffs. Now try arguing against a point I actually made.
If not Reid, then who?
How many years of Pat Mahomes prime do you want to waste fishing through Todd Haleys and other unknown “hot prospects” in hopes of finding someone better than the 6th winningest coach in NFL history?
Reid has flaws but they are not insurmountable.
If we don’t find a brilliant young coach then he may well end up as “Par” Mahomes. Or maybe even subpar Mahomes if we don’t fix the O-line. What if Andy retires? What then? We will HAVE to find a coach then. If Andy gets sick or has a health problem we will be forced to find one.
But my question to you is how many years of Pat Mahomes prime should we waste on a coach who has proven he can’t win the Superbowl and isn’t particularly good in the playoffs? So it is a question of the known vs. the unknown. Do we roll the dice and maybe get a good young coach or do we stick with the veteran coach that everybody feels comfortable with who wins a lot but can’t win in the Superbowl? I seem to remember lots wanting to stick with the vet QB because they were scared of the unknown with a young inexperienced QB we had. Seems to be a similar situation here.
You act like getting a Super Bowl winning coach is as easy as going to Wal Mart and picking one up. There is only 1 Bill Bellichick last I checked who can regularly get his team there.
As much as so many would like to think, there is no curse that prevents Andy Reid or Marty Scottenheimer or anyone else from getting to the Super Bowl. Just like being a young hotshot analytics guy doesnt guarantee it either.
Its hard and requires no shortage of luck and getting hot at the right time.
Until he retires, Reid gives us the best chance of getting there, not just in one miracle season (see the Eagles), but consistently.
I’m not saying it would be easy to find a Superbowl winning coach. But we already KNOW that Andy Reid is NOT one. There isn’t a “curse” that prevents coaches like Reid and Schottenheimer from getting to the Superbowl. However they do have fatal flaws in how they coach and make decisions that prevent them from ever making it. That is simply the reality and the truth of it.
Reid doesn’t give us the “best chance” because he quite literally gives us no chance. People only want to stick with him because they are scared of the unknown and are comfortable with knowing they will have a winning season, likely a division title and a trip to the playoffs while they continually hope (in vain) that Reid will somehow luck out and defy history and maybe, just maybe luck his way into a Superbowl or that somehow Mahomes will overcome Reid’s fatal flaws and deficiencies. It’s a fool’s errand but the allure and comfort of the known is too strong, just as it was for the longest time with our QB situation.
Then one of these days, five or so years from now when we are still Superbowl-less we will look back after Reid retires and we will say, “Man, that was a waste. We should have just taken a chance.”
Made up percentages to back you up. Nice.
What happened to the last team to fire Andy Reid:
Ahem. Chip Kelly in between then and Doug Peterson.
Cool. They stuck with Reid 14 years never won it. Fired him and had a super bowl within 5 years. Which part isn’t true?
We will probably waste Pat Mahomes career. Andy will probably retire in 10 years or so after most of Pat’s prime years have been used up and we likely will still be without a Superbowl win.
Assuming the Chiefs win tomorrow, Kansas City will have 6 years with a winning record and 5/6 years of playoff appearances. They’ve won 2 playoff games over that time, received a first round bye twice, and been to the AFCCG once. Anyone who advocates firing Andy Reid has gotten used to greatness and needs to be checked. I remember 2012. Every year. I never want to go back to those days as long as I am a fan.
totally agree … some would want Reid fired if the Chiefs pulled a Bills and went to 3-4 Super bowls in a row and lost ’em
That isn’t greatness. That’s meh-ness. If you want greatness take a look at how many playoff games and for that matter Superbowls that the Patriots won. 2 playoff games in 5 years is a joke and any Patriots fan would tell you so. People always make the stupid false dilemma fallacy of believing that if we make a change that the only change possible is a reversion to 2012. That just isn’t true.
*Started writing and maybe got a little off track. But it’s some stuff I appreciate about AR. Andy Reid is an incredible coach. I’m of the opinion that caring for people is important, and kinda the point of why we’re here. Andy Reid does that. Can you win treating players simply as pieces on your chess board? Yup. But respect and acknowledgement, even in the tough places is important IMO. After he got fired in Philly, Reid had something like 3 interviews lined up. Clark Hunt has his jet on the tarmac first. Andy came to KC and never took another interview. Later, when asked why he didn’t at least consider the other jobs he said there’s just something magical about Kansas City. There’s a lot of good X’s & O’s guys out there. But Andy Reid gets it. His players respect him, dare I say love him. After the Rams game last year that hug from Marcus Peters said it all. There’s not drama coming out of the locker room, and the players genuinely like each other for the most part. What I’m talking about is difficult if not impossible to quantify. But it’s important stuff as far as having a solid foundation for winning. My only gripe about his style is at times in games he appears to not want to embarrass his opponents by running up the score. I personally think he should do it every week to establish a rhythm of dominance and a culture of finishing games playing hard. I know he’s also thinking about injuries and player recovery, etc. But still… Now directly about winning. Reid’s achilles heel has always been time mgt and questionable play calling in critical situations. I’ve seen him nail both, even this year. But those issues change outcomes. Fix that and our odds of winning it all go up considerably. Bottom Line: Def. keep Reid for a while. If he left in the next couple of years I believe Mahomes would suffer a regression. He’s superman but he’s still young. Except for a couple of wrinkles Andy Reid brings… Read more »
What happened to the formatting?
I don’t know but it’s a great comment regardless.
If you don’t “Read more” on a longer post, the formatting doesn’t show up for some reason.
he said there’s just something magical about Kansas City.
Yeah, its called BBQ!!!
That’s nice that Andy’s players love him but honestly I really don’t give a shit. I’d rather have a prick like Belichick who wins championships. The players may not like him but they respect him and will listen to him because his methods are effective. And I would be totally fine with that.
No we shouldn’t fire him. Don’t know why everybody is hating below saying this is clickbait. I appreciate you taking the time to highlight and let us reflect on Andy’s regular season and post season record.
If we get beat tomorrow and fall to 8-5, you better believe that MULTIPLE twitter accounts are gunna explode and call for Andy’s firing. Fire Reid, no. Clickbait, no.
i love the girl in the back
Sass overload.
I don’t believe in giving anyone a blank check. Andy has one job, win a championship. Period. Don’t want to fire Andy now, that would be foolish. Changed my mind about one more chance, agree that three more years if we don’t get it this year is about right. After that if another Lombardi Trophy isn’t at One Arrowhead Drive I’m done. Urban Meyer might sign with dallas, last time I checked he’s a pretty good coach. Whether that translates to the pros remains to be seen. Seems to me settling for the playoffs every year without a championship is just about cash flow at that point. This idea that Andy is irreplaceable is also silly.
Someday I’ll convince you to join our Andy Reid cult :)
hey, it’s an “editorial” … opinion … and everyone’s entitled to their own opinions (just not their own facts)
What kind of click bait trolling shit is this. I expect this type of thing at another place
Did you read the actual article? This is something I’ve heard from multiple people, so wanted to do an analysis of it.
https://giphy.com/gifs/kik-analyze-forensics-dCVNcrhdepjiw
The article was not. The headline however was and most people would call it that. It is exactly what I thought when I saw it.
The article was great and pretty much what I think when people say we should fire Reid. And though I haven’t thought we should fire him I have mulled it over a bit and always come back to pretty much what your article says.
I’m not sure what else the title should be that would make it not click bait.
Dunno
You nailed it Tony
Names mitch but thanks ?
How about “How many chances does Andy Reid have?” No mention of firing.
Well I doubt that would get the instant reaction that the mention of firing would.
That’s a good one.
Click bait, schtick bait. Who cares? It’s a substantive article worth discussion. I thought that’s why we’re here? Can’t please everyone Tony.
Lol just giving you shit man. It’s what I do ?
Seems a tad aggressive. How else should it be titled when he’s diving into the debate whether or not we should fire Reid? Alot of people have been beating that drum since the titans loss. Might be dumb, but it’s a real take out there.
Some future headline options…
Should the Chiefs raise parking prices?
Should the Chiefs move to St. Louis?
Should the Chiefs change their name to “Beavers”? (random)
Should the Chiefs lose to the Patriots tomorrow? You will have to get this one into print rather soon.
Know Thy Enemy, watch local Pats announcers chat about Sunday’s game
Watch “Patriots Chiefs Breakdown | What’s Changed Since Last Season? | Patriots Press Pass” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/3mQx9Zxmgyg
good grief … it took you 749 words, 57 sentences and 6 paragraphs to say “no”
well done
Haha