Science Saturday OT: 100% of Covid Deaths are from Covid

 125 replies

Tony does his best to make you smarter, despite the comments section.

We’ve made it, with the Chiefs playing the Texans on Thursday this will be the last Science Saturday of the year. I was hoping to avoid talking about Covid again, but this popped up and took a life of it’s own, so it’s worthwhile to describe exactly what people are getting wrong. It has different forms depending on where you see it, but in general it looks like this.

Jump to comments

There’s actually two problems here. One is the implication that only 6% of Covid deaths are actually from Covid, and that the other 94% were caused by something else and those people just happened to have Covid, and therefore Covid isn’t actually very dangerous. The problem with this is that often there is legitimately more than one cause of death, and while the person could have survived with just one disease, it was a combination of those two that killed them.

For example, one of the comorbidities listed on the CDC website is diabetes, with over 27,000 deaths with both diabetes and Covid. In a normal year roughly 80,000 people in the US die of diabetes, so unless half the people with diabetes in the US have gotten Covid this pandemic is causing diabetics to die at a far higher rate than they normally would in a 6-month period. Of those 27,000 it’s virtually certain that most would have been able to continue living with their diabetes had they not also gotten Covid.

Ok so that isn’t surprising, we all already knew that people with pre-existing conditions were at a higher risk of developing serious symptoms, it’s the second implication that really surprised people, that since 94% of Covid deaths had other health issues, if you’re a healthy person you have virtually no risk of dying of Covid. While it’s true your risk is much lower, that’s not actually what the CDC was saying here, and isn’t really accurate. This becomes clearer when you look at that Table 3 that’s in those screenshots, but people never seem to show.

Notice anything? While this isn’t the entire table, it’s immediately obvious that these comorbidities are actually them simply listing Covid symptoms along with Covid as the cause of death. The 72,000 people who died of Covid and “influenza and pneumonia” had their influenza and pneumonia caused by Covid. Same with “respiratory failure”. It’s not like these people were dying of respiratory failure and then just happened to catch Covid, it was the Covid that caused respiratory failure as a symptom.

It would be like if somebody was in a fatal car accident, and they listed their cause of death as internal bleeding and head trauma. You wouldn’t then conclude that the car accident didn’t kill them because they had these other things listed, you’d know that those things were caused by the car accident.

But to make the actual death toll crystal clear the simplest way to look at it is excess deaths from all causes. If Covid wasn’t that serious, then we would see a normal amount of deaths since February, or at least the number above average would be well below the 190,000 official death toll. But instead counting excess deaths shows that at best the official death count is very accurate, and at worst it’s under counting the number of Covid deaths.

What this misunderstanding (and outright deceit by some) shows, beyond confirming how serious this disease is, is the importance of double-checking claims like this. Just because you see a picture on the internet doesn’t mean that it’s telling you the whole story.

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Berserker
Berserker
09/05/2020 11:36 pm

This is ridiculous. Why is this so hard?

Why are we wearing a mask in our own car by our own selves?

Why would we NOT be wearing a mask while we’re grocery shopping with a bunch of freaky strangers?

Why in the holy fuck did our CDC and some politicians figure to free up hospital space by sticking covid patients in nursing homes? And why are those particular panicky idiots still in charge of anything?

Personally, I believe that about 95% of functioning adults are plenty smart enough to figure out how to best handle our own individual business. But we get so distracted listening to the shrill 5% that we don’t take any time to think for ourselves.

saints_chiefsfan1979
saints_chiefsfan1979
09/05/2020 7:50 pm

I think the information tells us that young and or relatively healthy people aren’t in major danger of perishing from this virus. If you have Asthma, high blood pressure and diabetes, any one of those ailments can kill you. Your immune system is already compromised. So any illness or infection can be a big problem for those with underlying conditions. But what this tells us is we should have protected the vulnerable while sending everyone else to work and live their lives. What this says is we need college football to tee off. We need fans in stands. We need kids in school. We need to start life back up again for most of this country

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon
09/05/2020 7:30 pm

Ok, if you are going to use the car crash analogy this is how you have to set it up. 2 cars and 2 drivers. One of the cars is equipped with seatbelts aand airbags. The other car is not and has a large spike sticking out of the middle of the steering wheel. They both hit a wall traveling at the same speed. Which is more likely to survive? Easy answer. Yes, hitting the wall is the PROXIMAL cause of death, but had both drivers been in equivilently equipped cars, they both survive. Its not so much the wall that killed driver 2, it was the lack of restraints + the large spike that actually allowed the wall to do its damage

Last edited 12 days ago by WaywerdSon
steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 3:37 pm

With Riddick cut and Bowden traded, #Raiders‘ INITIAL RB looks like Jacobs, Richard, Booker and FB Ingold.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 3:36 pm

Players cut to reach 53: S Adrian Colbert, OL Ryan Hunter, WR Gehrig Dieter, CB Chris Lammons, RB DeAndre Washington

still nothing final

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 3:20 pm

Latest challenge to COVID season: NFL not allowing players into training facilities the day after games, based on memo sent to teams today. Anyone playing Sunday can’t go in Monday. Exceptions made for players on short weeks with games Thursday or players who require medical care

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/05/2020 3:27 pm

I heard the Tennessee Volunteers football team cancelled practice
had 44 players identified through contact tracing as possibly infected

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
09/05/2020 2:48 pm

15 minutes of laughs, but at the 11:10 mark I would have died.

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/05/2020 2:53 pm

The Japanese must not have liability lawyers or liability laws. Some of the stuff they do is insane. That person that dropped in had a real potential to be punched 🙂

Last edited 12 days ago by venturachief
steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:30 pm

A source close to Jadeveon Clowney says he’s been mulling offers from Titans and Saints since Friday and Ravens a wild card – they made a serious push a few weeks ago. Seahawks not out of it but more monitoring.

and he fired his agent too

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:47 pm

Not a huge Clowney fan. His worth doesn’t match his expectations. But just the same, I’m hoping he goes to the NFC.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:26 pm

Sources: The #Raiders are trading RB/returner Lynn Bowden Jr and a 6th rounder to the #Dolphins in exchange for a 4th round pick, the same pick Miami just got from Vegas. The versatile Bowden was a third-rounder this year.

Head scratcher?

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:27 pm

Maybe he didn’t look great in camp.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 2:29 pm

trade a third round selection this year and a 6th for a 4th

someone screwed up a 3rd round pick……..

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:38 pm

It would appear that way. At least they were able to salvage something out of it.

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:50 pm

John Dorsey must be consulting

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/05/2020 3:56 pm

I have a soft spot for Dorsey. He deserved to be fired but…..Chris Jones, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mitchell Schwartz and Patrick Mahomes (at a min he deserves credit for the trade up) is a nice legacy.

Leaf
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 5:00 pm

Dorsey is the Todd Hailey of GMs. Good at one aspect of the job, poor at the rest, and a complete famine hygiene product.

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:48 pm

Just saw this post by a Raiders reporter – #Raiders weren’t loving Bowden’s character fit. They’re disappointed because of the value of the No. 80 pick and the plans they had for him.

Last edited 12 days ago by venturachief
steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 2:53 pm

character and Raiders don’t belong in the same sentence

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:54 pm

Used to be that way. Unfortunately, Mayock seems to be cleaning things up.

Leaf
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 5:01 pm

Well he needs to cut that shit out. It’s not proper

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
09/05/2020 2:25 pm

Wow, Alex made the Washington team. Pretty amazing guy.

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/05/2020 2:44 pm

comment image

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/05/2020 3:06 pm

He was already getting paid $16 million this year guaranteed. There was no way they were going to cut him as his wisdom and work ethic is invaluable to a young qb.

I do wonder if he will be active at the start of the season.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/05/2020 3:10 pm

Was referring to Alex’s courage, not what motivated the team’s decision.

Last edited 12 days ago by probablyamistake
Fire_FG_the_moron
Fire_FG_the_moron
09/05/2020 2:02 pm

So off topic but I need guidance. My local grocery store carries 5 brands of bbq sauce…
Stubbs, KC Masterpiece, Sweet Baby Rays, Kraft and Best Choice. I found I can order Joe’sKC, SLAPS and Jack Stack through my employer. WHAT DO I DO? Yes, I know if its cooked correctly sauce just ruins it.

rip58lovealways
rip58lovealways
Reply to  Fire_FG_the_moron
09/05/2020 2:04 pm

Make your own would be my choice, and it’s so so easy to do..

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  rip58lovealways
09/05/2020 2:05 pm

does it involve a Bloody Mary 🙂

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:06 pm

Always

rip58lovealways
rip58lovealways
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:07 pm

That’s the 1st ingredient…

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91
Reply to  Fire_FG_the_moron
09/05/2020 2:05 pm

Stubbs is the best of those. Sweet Baby Rays is overrated. I get my ribs dry and get the sauce on the side.

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
Reply to  Fire_FG_the_moron
09/05/2020 2:06 pm

Not Kraft. For the love of god. Anything but Kraft.

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  Fire_FG_the_moron
09/05/2020 2:07 pm

I heartily disagree that sauce ruins it. What’s your preference? I’d buys Joe’s but that’s just me. I seem to recall I liked Jack Stack’s BBQ sauce more that I like their food.

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 2:08 pm

Yeah don’t let meat snobs ruin what you prefer.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  ForeverRanger91
09/05/2020 2:21 pm

Tried to be a vegetarian once, it is a healthier lifestyle, but absolutely no way to live. I like my filets. 😁

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/05/2020 2:24 pm

Yeah, I failed as well. I found myself just eating a massive amount of pasta. Besides loving meat, I’m not a huge fans of vegetables. So I wasn’t a great match 🙂 Plus vegetarians, particularly vegans, are fucking annoying.

Last edited 12 days ago by venturachief
rip58lovealways
rip58lovealways
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 2:26 pm

rip58lovealways
rip58lovealways
Reply to  rip58lovealways
09/05/2020 2:28 pm

She don’t eat meat , but she sure likes the bone….😃

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  rip58lovealways
09/05/2020 2:39 pm

Fantastic

Fire_FG_the_moron
Fire_FG_the_moron
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 2:39 pm

I’ve never had any of them. Just wanted a little insight. I have to order 6 bottles if I want it.

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91
Reply to  Fire_FG_the_moron
09/05/2020 2:07 pm

I can also recommend Jim Ross’s BBQ sauce.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:40 pm

I am so happy to see live college football

I am enjoying a blowout by Marshall on ESPN

Chickennpickles
Chickennpickles
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:48 pm

Who are they playing?

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  Chickennpickles
09/05/2020 1:51 pm

Eastern Kentucky

Chickennpickles
Chickennpickles
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:54 pm

Cool. I’m a Western Michigan alum. I was worried it was gonna them, lol.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  Chickennpickles
09/05/2020 1:56 pm

My Missouri Tigers are gonna run a Gauntlet this year

Starting with Alabama up first

TNCHIEFS
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 7:02 pm

As a Marshall grad that was nice to see. I graduated the year they had the last of about 12 straight losing seasons after the plane crash. The following year they had their first winning season. And when the 90’s hit Chad Pennington, Randy Moss and Byron Leftwich happened. Winningest team in America during the 90s. And Leftwich played the 2nd half of a game with a friggin’ broken leg. Insane.

3rdnlong
3rdnlong
09/05/2020 1:33 pm

I agree with some of what you say. And as a type 1 diabetic, I want to be on top of these things too.

The thing is, though, there are also patients who have died and have been misdiagnosed as having covid when they didn’t. There has also been some false reporting due to a greater chance of more funding right now if deaths are being labeled Covid. Colorado had cases reported as covid deaths that were car accidents and suicides. Not that any death is desirable, mind you. But with false reporting of cases at the sources, it is clear that 100% of reported covid deaths are not always from covid.

Last edited 12 days ago by 3rdnlong
Leaf
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/05/2020 1:45 pm

I get your point but you are assuming that the death rate in the US would have stayed static. Using previous numbers is a good baseline, but it’s not all telling. By claiming 100% you are essentially falling in to the same trap as the guy you are complaining about.

Leaf
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/05/2020 2:01 pm

Oh I don’t know. maybe because things like death, tend to go up every fucking year

Last edited 12 days ago by Leaf
pompano
pompano
Reply to  Leaf
09/05/2020 1:49 pm

He’s not claiming 100%, and it’s very telling imho.

Leaf
Reply to  pompano
09/05/2020 1:50 pm

He is. It’s in the title

100% of Covid Deaths are from Covid

pompano
pompano
Reply to  Leaf
09/05/2020 1:55 pm

i was referring to the “excess deaths” being dicussed.

Leaf
Reply to  pompano
09/05/2020 2:18 pm

It’s still not guaranteed to be 100%. We don’t know what the death rate would hand been minus COVID. All we can do is use past data and make an educated guess. But a guess is just that, a guess. No matter how educated, it’s still not a guarantee. That’s my point. You can’t pass off a guess as fact

pompano
pompano
Reply to  Leaf
09/05/2020 2:34 pm

*not saying 100%. Is it coincedence, possibly.

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon
Reply to  Leaf
09/05/2020 7:33 pm

we will have a really good idea in 18-24 months. It will take that long to get the data compiled and we will be able to see what the increase in mortality will be. I predict less than 5% over baseline

Leaf
Reply to  WaywerdSon
09/05/2020 7:42 pm

Good idea yes, but it will still won’t be totally clear because COVID has muddied the waters. You’ll never know 100% what we would have been minus COVID, because COVID exists. Even if it is only 5% increase, 95% is not 100%. That was my point.

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon
Reply to  Leaf
09/05/2020 8:45 pm

we will know what the deviation from expectations is. Mortality is fairly predictable, the entire insurance industry is one gigantic bet on the accuracy of those predictions. I still say when we get clear of it and take into account the lowered number of deaths over the next 18 months after the outbreak has been contained the actual deviation from expected will be very very small. Average age at death from SARS-CoV2 is older than average life expectancy. Thats a fact that cant be swept under the rug. The lion’s share of what is being counted as SARS-CoV2 fatalities are people that were on the way out anyway, and pretty much any opportunistic bug was likely to finish them off.

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
Reply to  pompano
09/05/2020 2:04 pm

The title of that last chart is predicted number of excessive deaths. Not actual. Predicted.

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/05/2020 1:52 pm

Can you pull out the senicide committed in NY, NJ and MI from the numbers

TNCHIEFS
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/05/2020 7:31 pm

Yeah, I don’t buy that we have accurate numbers, either cases or mortality. A. CDC definitions of a Covid case and Covid death were as broad as they could possibly be, as opposed to reasonable B. H/C orgs were incentivized to code cases/deaths as Covid due to reimbursement. C. Hydroxychloriquine is both safe and effective. It’s literally safer than aspirin. In other countries it’s OTC and pregnant women and children take. The safety claim is BS. D. There’s an issue when all the “experts”; WHO, NIH, VA, CDC, Med. Journals, key researchers ALL say HCQ isn’t safe or effective. But actual caregivers around the world are touting it’s highly effective impact, at times 100% E. People were throwing around studies proving this and that. The ONLY accurate studies were those that looked HCQ’s effectiveness in “high risk” populations. And ALL of those studies showed that it is both safe and effective, in addition to very low cost. F. When your gov’t proves to you that they don’t care about how many people die (as a result of the HCQ policy) it’s time to think for yoursefl about every aspect. G. I for one believe the riots, the pandemic, the response to the pandemic are all part of a total package deal designed to create gov’t dependence, breakdown social structures/community, blow up the propoganda machine, kill the economy (gov’t dependence), and set us for 1984-type control. H. The Moderna vaccine contains, in addition to a vaccine, RNA which will result in genetic modification of basically most of the human race; Luciferase (real term) which are light emitting molecules that can be read by sensors/smart phone; hydrogel which contains nanotechnology, which are tiny computers. At a minimum they’ll be able to monitor not just whether you had the vaccine but your health status, what drugs you have taken, etc. Beyond that there is currently a network of about 460 satellites in space to support 5G. Elon Musk sent up a package of 60 earlier this summer with the goal of enshrouding the earth with 40,000 5G satellites. It’s like we’ll all be… Read more »

Last edited 12 days ago by TNCHIEFS
pompano
pompano
Reply to  3rdnlong
09/05/2020 1:53 pm

As a counterpoint: Florida reported under 3000 deaths from Pneumonia for 2019. In June of ’20 over 7000 had been attributed.
?

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:28 pm

The #Chargers and Pro Bowl WR @Keenan13Allen have agreed to terms on a new extension, per @JobyBranion of @VanguardSG.  More than $80m on a 4-year extension making him the 2nd highest-paid WR in the NFL.

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:30 pm

He’s trash

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/05/2020 1:49 pm

I wouldn’t say he’s trash but I will say the Chargers will regret that extension.

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
Reply to  venturachief
09/05/2020 1:53 pm

I am just taking a page out of the Keenan Allen playbook.

It is good he got his contract now, because I don’t think Tyrod or the rookie will help him out this season.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  Severely Concussed
09/05/2020 1:55 pm

He called Hill Trash didn’t he?

venturachief
venturachief
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:57 pm

I don’t recall that but I do recall him throwing significant shade at the Chiefs secondary

Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 2:02 pm

He said Hill is faster than him, but nowhere near as good a receiver. He also claimed our secondary was terrible.

He runs his mouth a lot for someone that doesn’t play in the postseason.

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91
09/05/2020 1:08 pm

Cairo Santos cut by the Bears. He was great for us but Butker is a top kicker in the NFL.

Chickennpickles
Chickennpickles
Reply to  ForeverRanger91
09/05/2020 1:32 pm

Yeah, Butker was a fantastic pickup by KC. The Chiefs have a history of good kicking/special teams, so I had high hopes for him, which he has definitely exceeded. Hopefully Townsend can do the same in the punting department🤞

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:07 pm

hahhahahah

The Browns have FIVE tight ends on their roster: Pharaoh Brown, Harrison Bryant, Stephen Carlson, Austin Hooper, David Njoku

slackator
slackator
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:41 pm

Chiefs have 4, so I dont know that 5 at this time is an extreme when we have the best in the league and still have 3 backups

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  slackator
09/05/2020 1:47 pm

I know we cut one at least today

I have not seen the full list of cuts

slackator
slackator
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:49 pm

could be, I just looked at the Chiefs site roster and saw 4. We’ll likely roll with 3 and only use 1 1/2 all season

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  slackator
09/05/2020 2:15 pm

I saw Helms was cut I think

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
09/05/2020 1:06 pm

Thank you, Tony.

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:04 pm

K Hinton
B Rypien
C White
T Benson
J Winfree
F Brown
L Bellamy
A Holder
D Coleman
PJ Locke
J Cox
D Bausby
D Tuszka
P Morris
J Hollins
M Carney
T Jones
J Rodgers
D Paulo
Q Bailey
H Watts
T Fumagalli
A Fort
J Watson
D Williams

Broncos cuts

steve_chiefs
steve_chiefs
Reply to  steve_chiefs
09/05/2020 1:08 pm

just waiting to see whom the Chiefs release

tadream0
tadream0
09/05/2020 12:23 pm

Tony, thank you for this article. I am a teacher of mathematics in western Kansas, an area that is totally consumed by the presidential rhetoric. When the number games came out on only 6% of the deaths were due to CoVid, for many, it was just more justification of why we shouldn’t be wearing masks. The whole ordeal has just totally messed with my anger and frustration. I am Type-2 diabetic, but everything is under control and I should live a long, decent life with what we are doing to manage it. If I should get the virus and pass, I do not want it to be stated that I died because of diabetes. I died because I caught corona-virus and it caused complications with my diabetes that would have never otherwise happened.

Death is death, regardless of the label and each and every one is sad, but to now politicize everyone’s conditions as a reason to fight against wearing a mask is totally asinine! I don’t want to die, I don’t want to make anyone sick, I want to world to continue on and watch my Chiefs play, but now I have co-workers looking at me like CoVid isn’t dangerous it is the fact that I am weak and have other health conditions that causes them to have to wear a mask… Really, what is our world coming to? Thank you for stating the argument that I have not been able to put into words yet.

Anyway, Go Chiefs, kick Houston’s ass on Thursday and let’s run this puppy back and see if we can get an even more expensive ring next year!

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  tadream0
09/05/2020 1:38 pm

Interesting how far reaching ‘Science Saturday’ is
comment image

Last edited 12 days ago by zulu trader
Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
09/05/2020 12:21 pm

I see the chart of unexpected deaths, and all I can think is how much tougher Missourians are than New Yorkers.

Plus I can’t give much credence to a spreadsheet that calls New York City a state.

Last edited 12 days ago by Severely Concussed
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