I was going to ramble about this in the comments, but then I changed my mind and shifted over here. So, what have I been up to? Poking around https://www.pro-football-reference.com‘s stats on our Football Savior, of course. Good time for me to get lost in some numbers, and I’ve made some observations and want to share my thoughts on them.
As an example, the thing that got me started was some interesting SBLIV stats I saw, such as the fact that in that game Damien Williams rushed 17 snaps for 104 yards and a TD. Samuel and Mostert combined had 111 on 15 snaps with a TD. Now I remember hearing about running games before gameday, and while I know it proves very little, it sure is interesting, isn’t it?
So I moved on to Mahomes after comparing his game to Jimmy G’s, but the most interesting thing there is that Jimmy had the better completion rate. So I dove in, and the first thing I checked was his 2 seasons’ stats. I’d heard many if not all of them before, but seeing them all together was striking. He improved in so many ways in one offseason, it’s mind-blowing, and I’m talking numbers and not hype.
F’rex, take his INTs, which dropped from 12 to 5. He cut it to less than one half. I was slightly hyperbolic a while back when I was speculating that he might be the first QB in the salary cap era to go an entire season with throwing a pick. Now I wonder if I should consider that seriously. Wow.
And then there’s his passing attempts, which dropped by 100, and some of the reasons are obvious. One that’s less obvious, though, is that in ’18 he only rushed five times, last season he carried it 17 fewer attempts for much the same reasons – but he went from averaging 4.5 to 5.1 while his attempts average dropped from 3.8 to 3.1. That tells me he was being smarter about when to take off.
There’s a lot more, such as the fact that his fumbles dropped from nine to three, and he recovered one of them. That means he only turned the ball over seven times in the season total. Sure, he benefits from missing essentially three games here, but if you average the other 13 out and multiply by three, he’d only add one or two more. Is nine total turnovers in a season good, or what?
I just had to look, and in Brady’s very best INT year he only threw 2 picks, but he also lost 5 fumbles, for a total of seven. Of course that was 2016, when they went 14-2 – but Brady also missed 4 full games. Isn’t that interesting?