No Need To Panic

 30 replies

Chiefs Kingdom went into this season expecting a perfect 17-0 record, and anything short of that is a failure and everyone should be fired. Or at least that’s how it seems judging by the reaction at large to the Chiefs upset loss to the Colts. But I am here to tell you that it was a flukey loss that doesn’t matter and we should not be worried at all.

Yeah, I said it.

First let’s cover the fluke part. The Chiefs outplayed the Colts, gaining a pedestrian 0.05 expected points per play compared to the Colts’ disastrous -0.16. This differential is backed up by the play-by-play, where just a small handful of plays made the difference in the game.

(Note: I only counted the fake field goal attempt, and not the miss, because the miss followed Kelce’s drop so that’d be double counting. Also I didn’t count the missed extra point since they ended up getting the 2 point conversion anyway, which they wouldn’t have done had they made the first extra point.)

And it’s not just that 3% of the plays made such a big difference over the other 97%, but that these 4 plays were flukey.

I know I know, you think I’m just being a butt hurt homer who’s trying to explain away a loss, but this is how I evaluate all games. When I make notes of games in my spreadsheet it’s almost exclusively noting these fluke plays that have an outsized effect on the game. For example, my notes for the Bengals loss to the Steelers in week 1 is:

CIN turned it over a ton, that it was even close shows how much better they are if they can not turn it over.

Things like drops, muffed punts, missed field goals (especially short ones), and untimely unsportsmanlike penalties have huge effects on the outcomes of the game, but are simply not very predictive of future results. Those other 125 plays, while essentially being wiped out by the fluke plays, are the bread and butter that are going to be a much better indicator of how well the will perform moving forward.

But beyond all of that, regular season games just don’t matter all that much anymore if you’re a contender.

With 7 playoff spots for 16 teams in the AFC, if you’re a real contender you’re going to make the playoffs. And, yes, a bye and home field are nice, but they don’t make that big of a difference really, especially if you’re the 2 seed. A 2 seed might have to play in the first round, but they get a team that very likely had no business making the playoffs anyway. And the 2 seed gets a home game in the divisional round. This loss is not going to prevent us from getting a top 2 seed if we’re actually that good.

If all of that doesn’t convince you, consider that every team has bad games, even eventual Super Bowl winners. Look at the last couple champions:

  • The 2021 Rams lost 31-10 to the San Francisco 49ers.
  • The 2020 Buccaneers lost 38-3 at home to the New Orleans Saints.
  • The 2019 Chiefs lost 19-13 to the Colts (sound familiar?).
  • The 2018 Patriots lost 26-10 to a Lions team that finished the season 6-10.
  • The 2017 Eagles lost 24-10 to the Seahawks.

This one game is simply not a big deal.

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rip58
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/26/2022 5:03 pm

Well ..Good bye……..

Last edited 2 months ago by rip58
ChiefDog
Reply to  rip58
09/26/2022 5:22 pm

MOAR #20

MasterChief
MasterChief
Reply to  Tony Sommer
09/26/2022 5:28 pm

Hopefully it also is a sign that Butker will be back this week.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
09/26/2022 2:30 pm

This could be sour grapes or maybe not. Who knows. All we know for sure is there is friction between Patrick and EB. Another thing I know for sure is that you don’t want to restrict Patrick, you want to unleash him.

hoosierchief
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/26/2022 2:45 pm

I don’t think this is the first time Lesean has come out bad mouthing Bieniemy.

upamtn
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/26/2022 3:15 pm

according to Big Red, it was his (HC) call and not EB’s … and EB was simply telling PM15 “hey, we’re already up and we get the ball 2nd half, let’s just go into locker room and regroup”

unless McCoy has some kind of super-special powers and was actually RIGHT THERE LISTENING he has literally nothing constructive to offer on this one (or anything else for that matter)

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  upamtn
09/26/2022 5:51 pm

Andy is gonna say what he has to to keep the peace. He’s the captain of the ship, it ultimately falls in his lap anyway.

Leaf
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/26/2022 3:47 pm

No we don’t. All we know is they had a disagreement. That can seriously be the end of it. People need to stop thinking it’s more than what it is until it proves otherwise.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  Leaf
09/26/2022 5:48 pm

If everything was all hunky dory between the two doubt if that scene takes place on the field. Something is wrong there but I hope you’re right. Doesn’t help the team if there’s friction between those two.

Leaf
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/26/2022 6:12 pm

Disagree. When things aren’t going well, things get tense. Married couples get into heated arguments all the time and can reconcile. As I pointed out during the game after it happened, we get into some heated arguments here about things we are passionate about, but many of us still keep coming back. A moment of passion could very well just be a moment of passion, nothing more.

NovaChiefs
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/26/2022 6:30 pm

No, you can be best friends in the world and still disagree on tactics. If PM threw his helmet, or either put a finger in the other’s face, it’d be trouble.
That said, EB likely is not our OC new season. I think they are getting stale.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
09/26/2022 1:14 pm

Just rewatched the condensed game and I’m even more flabbergasted that we lost. The first quaryer we couldn’t get out of our own way. The muff, then a horrible 3 and out, then more special teams poo poo allowing a 57 yard punt downed at the 1. But we ended being up by 4 at half. Should have at least done a hail mary at the end of the half. Why not? If it works the game is over.

2nd half we had 3 drives not including the last one. All 3 went deep into colts territory. 1st and goal from the 4 on the first one. We came away with 3 total points combined. 3. 3 measly points. Drives of 62, 64 and 53 yards and we got 3 points. 3.

To me the fake fg on 4th and 11 was the most impactful play in the game. It was so completely unnecessary. So unlikely to work. Just so desperate. Tony Romo could feel the effect it had on the kicker too. The next one just felt like a miss waiting to happen because reid sucked the life out of our already shaky kicker.

Last edited 2 months ago by DenverDonkeyHater
upamtn
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/26/2022 1:54 pm

Should have at least done a hail mary at the end of the half. Why not? If it works the game is over

and if someone gets hurt on the play? (it’s unnecessary, unlikely to work and just a desperation play)

Mahomes had no business getting pissed off at EB … none whatsoever

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  upamtn
09/26/2022 2:20 pm

We don’t run plays because we are worried about guys getting hurt? That’s bull jive

upamtn
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/26/2022 2:27 pm

tell that to Big Red vis-a-vis QB Sneak

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  upamtn
09/26/2022 2:34 pm

Somebody should, it’s utterly ridiculous that 37 year Matt Ryan and 45 year old Tom Brady can sneak the ball and Pat can’t. I mean Butker twisted his ankle on a kick off. Let’s never let him kick off again.

Especially since this team SUCKS at short yardage plays. Sucks.

Last edited 2 months ago by DenverDonkeyHater
probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/26/2022 2:46 pm

He gets knocked around enough as it is, but I wouldn’t have a problem with a sneak. What is obvious is if Patrick isn’t throwing the ball we have no offense. None.

Last edited 2 months ago by probablyamistake
upamtn
Reply to  probablyamistake
09/26/2022 3:17 pm

KC ran the ball “ok” against Chargers, but … yeah, Mahomes has to pass effectively to set up the run, and that didn’t happen yesterday

the whole Offense looked out of sync and lost and beaten (as did the Special Teams)

probablyamistake
probablyamistake
Reply to  upamtn
09/26/2022 3:42 pm

Define effective. He threw for 265yds. The team ran for 58yds., 26yds. were from Patrick. How many yards does Patrick need to throw for to be effective in your world? Our run game sucks because there isn’t quality blocking up front, our RB’s stink or both. Trying to pin our lack of ground yards on Patrick is disingenuous. Two completely different disciplines.

Nasrani
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/26/2022 3:18 pm

What’s worse is that we always seem to call short-yardage plays at the worst possible time. “3rd and 16… Let’s run a screen!”

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Last edited 2 months ago by Nasrani
Leaf
Reply to  upamtn
09/26/2022 3:27 pm

We didn’t need a Hail Mary. We needed 20-25 yards to get in to reasonable FG range with 2 downs and 20 secs. Very doable. Sure the kicker isn’t the greatest, but so what if he missed? The score would have just been exactly what we went into half time with and it would have not felt like we were giving up, which is exactly what it felt like when we don’t even try for anything. I honestly don’t blame Pat for being irked. I was.

DenverDonkeyHater
DenverDonkeyHater
Reply to  Leaf
09/26/2022 4:15 pm

Why they signed a kicker that can’t kick NFL range kicks is beyond me but they did. I wouldn’t have tried a 50+yarder with him. However 15 yards on 2nd down spike it to bring up 4th and heave to the enzone with zeros on the clock. That crap works way too often. And if did work the colts would have been heading to the glue factory at halftime.

Leaf
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/26/2022 4:40 pm

Exactly. If you don’t have a reasonable expectation of being able to hit a 35-40 yarders, then he never should have been singed. Even then if it’s the last play of the half, why the fuck not let him swing the leg. It isn’t going to hurt anything.

Last edited 2 months ago by Leaf
NovaChiefs
Reply to  DenverDonkeyHater
09/26/2022 6:34 pm

I don’t think there were a lot of choices. Anyone who could kick consistently was probably kicking somewhere. Maybe we should have pilfered a PS, ala Butker?

MasterChief
MasterChief
09/26/2022 1:06 pm

We’ll be fine.

Leaf
09/26/2022 12:45 pm

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upamtn
09/26/2022 12:31 pm

Chiefs Kingdom went into this season expecting a perfect 17-0 record …

just like 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, etc etc ad nauseum and it’s a surefire way to a huge letdown, because every team (other than the 72 Fins) have at least one crappy game like the Chiefs had yesterday

on a positive note: the Defense looked really good (outside of CJ’s vocal chords tripping over themselves, and it’s like I keep saying “stay classy” … fans and players alike … no need to talk at tall, especially while the game is still going on … and I hate the “individual celebrations” like a sack dance or a TD dance or whatever: you get paid to be a PROFESSIONAL, act like one)

Wichita Chief
Wichita Chief
09/26/2022 12:11 pm

New video surfaced from yesterday

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Nasrani
09/26/2022 11:55 am

Couple of things:
1. The Colts were playing for pride. When your back is against the wall as theirs was yesterday (it’s likely their season was on the line), it’s amazing what you’re capable of. Desperation can be a formidable ally.
2. Lucas Oil Stadium is cursed.
3. To your point about how “every team has a bad game,” this is completely true. What we fans often fail to take into account is that all of these people play football for a living, and that for the most part these teams are fairly evenly matched on paper – yes, certain positions are different (and those are often key positions, such as quarterback or head coach) – but a position-by-position analysis of nearly every game would show a regression to the mean; a team with a good QB might not necessarily have a top-notch defensive line, whereas a team with a top-tier linebacker may not have a great receiving corps. Yes, key positions can be (and often are) the difference-makers, but even they can be stymied (see: Chiefs vs. Patriots in 2014, and Kareem Hunt’s debut).
4. There are also certain intangibles (see point 1), such as momentum, that can have unforeseen and unpredictable effects. If one team loses momentum, it is often excruciatingly difficult to gain it back (which is where your fluke plays come in).
5. Lucas Oil Stadium is cursed.

Last edited 2 months ago by Nasrani
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