Hooray For Hollywood?

 24 replies

A two-part article, for your erudition and entertainment. Pointing and laughing is entertaining, right?

Part One: Method

I have tried to make this clear in a piecemeal way for years, so now I’m going to try to collect it all into one place. NFL analysts generally use three elements, these days, standard statistics, advanced metrics, and film study. Most employ a combination of the three, with various emphases, and I am no exception, at least to a minimal extent. But that’s not my approach. I understand and appreciate all three areas without being an expert in any of them, but my strengths lie elsewhere with this. My tools are human psychology and viewing things as systems, and the above three things are also systems.

With psychology, My beginning question’s always if a given action in a given context is consistent with normal human behavior, supplemented by the expectation that folks are basically honest, leaving aside social and, as here, professional untruths, because no NFL coach is going to tip his hand to the press under any circumstances. From there, some coaches are more honest about that than others, it’s a matter of fluff answers vs intent to deceive. Assuming dishonesty in others makes it difficult to assess others’ honesty, because they have to prove a negative, whether they know you’re listening or not. That’s a fool’s errand, but my (non-exclusive, by a long margin) approach allows me to look for inconsistencies, rather than looking for clues about something I strongly suspect to be true.

As for systems, they’re sets of dynamic processes that routinely produce results. That includes statistics analysis in this context, Passer Rating is a process using well-known statistics, as a simple example. And every system can be broken down into subsystems that mutually interact, so the inputs and outputs of a system are generally known, though with teams there are of course black boxes of unknowable decision-making.

The thing about troubleshooting is that you have a system that is supposed to take certain inputs and produce an expected output, so when that stops happening, you have to figure out what’s wrong. But that’s not the only part, because along with systems that aren’t working at all, there are also systems that work, but not as well as they could, and I use my skills for both when looking at the NFL. I also use that to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the three subsystems NFL analysts/talkers rely on. The combo might not be easy for y’all to understand, but it works goddamn well when I use those tools. That’s enough of that, and for those used to me trying to explain where I was coming from back in the day, y’all know I kept it short.

Part Two: Marquise

So, how will Hollywood Brown impact the Chiefs’ offense? Presuming he works out in the system (MVS, not so much, but thanks and enjoy your rings), he obviously has speed, technical ability, and overall talent going for him. A simple look at his film in two different schemes demonstrates that much, and as such, he’s a demonstrable threat both deep and shallow over the middle. That’s more or less what we asked of MVS, and Hollywood has better hands, and perhaps better self-discipline.

But here’s the kicker, Chiefs Kingdom, and let me roll that hole card over for you. Brown, at his press conference, mentioned that he felt that his full range of abilities hadn’t been given a chance, yet. He also mentioned that he had been given a close look by KC, Reid included, but I’ll get back to that. Think about that, because Murray and Jackson aren’t exactly known for their arm talent, and in the B rolls I’ve seen since it was announced, what I’ve seen has been shallow crossers and deep shots.

But the special sauce on this burger’s Andy Reid. The first thing is that KC scouted him as a real potential pick when he came into the draft, and he felt a good vibe here. Not by what he said, but how he said it, if you listen to his voice when that came up at his presser. But the real point is that Andy had a rough idea, so to speak, of his skill set, and wanted him, if possible. That database of notes and memories is now an asset that Andy can immediately start incorporating into his playbook, he’s got that head start.

But the other thing is something that is often overlooked, these days, that Andy’s famous for liking to use everything a player can do particularly well. Everything. Early on, the Kingdom took a few seasons getting used to that fact that Andy might see the need for top-flight specialists like Tyreek, he really liked players that might not be top players at their position, but could do a lot of stuff really well, and he used every bit of it.

Hollywood says that his talents haven’t been fully utilized yet. Don’t just think about that, think about the implications of having a very good WR who may have only shown 2/3 of what he’s capable of. Call it a lower percentage, but if he has unrealized ceiling left of any significant sort, this could be big.

I’m verklempt, talk amongst yourselves.


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NovaChiefs
03/21/2024 3:27 pm

He hasn’t played a snap. AFAIK, hasn’t caught a pass from Mahomes yet. Done nothing meaningful for us.
And yet, I want to sign him for 2025 already.

And MVS…We don’t beat Cincy without him stepping up in a depleted WR corp, and maybe not Buffalo this year with two solid catches. It’s easy to hate on him, but he was no worse than the rest of the WR room, save Rice. He was pricier. He clearly had Patrick’s trust, going to him for the kill in the AFCCG and our only regulation TD of the SB.
Could he have been better? Sure, but unless you were not paying attention, his drops were a concern at the time we signed him, so those were a known issue.

Last edited 1 month ago by NovaChiefs
upamtn
Reply to  NovaChiefs
03/21/2024 3:59 pm

and MAYBE part of why Brown hasn’t been a superstar is injuries and bad footwork … ?

NovaChiefs
Reply to  upamtn
03/21/2024 4:39 pm

I’m sure Murray and Jackson didn’t help, but injuries are concerning

NovaChiefs
Reply to  BleedingRedAndGold
03/21/2024 8:06 pm

Luckily, Brown is about the same size as Hill

NovaChiefs
Reply to  BleedingRedAndGold
03/21/2024 8:05 pm

That’s a whole of of to pull out of a comment expressing that I’m excited about Brown and hopeful it turns out.
No, MVS wasn’t the best ROI, and folks hated Clark for costing so much. They hate CEH because he was a 1st rounder who was overdrafted. Yet, every one of them contributed and were clearly valued by the team since the team kept them around.

And as for your last point/question: What the fuck are you on about? How did you get that possible meaning out of what I wrote? Why do you always think everyone here is out to silence you? WHO has EVER said that?

NovaChiefs
Reply to  BleedingRedAndGold
03/21/2024 8:56 pm

Well, I’m not going to stop because I didn’t even hint at any of that. I understand you have issues that I know nothing about and can’t help with.
All I’m asking is that you try to stop thinking everyone here wants you to shut up. We do not. I think you are “cut” a lot of slack, and that’s fine with me. If you can’t see that, I don’t know what to tell you.
However, I don’t know how interesting this place is going to be if we can only tell people we agree with them. Kind of kills the discussion buzz, no? So if you post something, anything, you can be pretty sure someone will disagree with it. It’s part of the game, here.

ArrowFan
03/21/2024 2:09 pm

It is very hard not to get excited for what this team would look like with the Offense regaining footing and returning to a top 5 or better unit along with the Championship Defense it’s currently rolling with.

upamtn
03/21/2024 1:38 pm

BRaG, you may be right about Brown, but I disagree vis-a-vis MVS … was he a superstar stud for us? nope, but he was a “shining star” at times in the post-season and THAT shouldn’t be overlooked (would I have him back if I were BV/Reid? sure, at a reduced price, but still …)

Brown MAY be the best thing since sliced bread for this team (for a year) and then again he may not … only one way to find out is let it all play out and see what happens

revisit this again in Feb after the Super Bowl (or whenever) and then take a deep, long, look back and see what you think …

upamtn
Reply to  upamtn
03/21/2024 4:00 pm

something, yeah … for sure

NovaChiefs
Reply to  upamtn
03/21/2024 4:41 pm

He DID say MVS WASN’T a “superstar stud”
And I agree with him. I’d take him back at a lesser rate.

rip58
Reply to  NovaChiefs
03/21/2024 5:18 pm

Well crap… sorry Ups… I shall delete

upamtn
Reply to  rip58
03/21/2024 5:31 pm

no no, it’s all good

I *am* something … no clue what, but something (I’m pretty sure)

NovaChiefs
Reply to  rip58
03/21/2024 8:57 pm

Now, what did you do that for? I’m very sure he was wrong about something else. We’ll use it for that

probablyamistake
Reply to  NovaChiefs
03/21/2024 5:43 pm

Nope. Nope. Nope. Saw enough of the guy. He came up with some plays, but not enough to keep around.

Team Player
Reply to  upamtn
03/21/2024 4:22 pm

MVS is the Frank Clark of the offense?

NovaChiefs
Reply to  Team Player
03/21/2024 4:45 pm

A good analogy.
No Frank, maybe no 2019 title.
No MVS, maybe no back to back, since he was a big game guy both years.
He might be more of an “Championship Sunday Scantling” to Sorensen’s “Divisional Dan”. Frustrating all year long, and then we couldn’t live without him in the Divisional’s.

upamtn
Reply to  NovaChiefs
03/21/2024 5:32 pm

this^^^

ya just never know

and the guy DOES know the offense, and seems to be a pretty selfless player all in all

NovaChiefs
Reply to  upamtn
03/21/2024 8:58 pm

And DID call the 4th and 1 play that wasn’t even involving him. Selfless.

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