Andy Reid Is Even Better Than You Think

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Now that Andy has his first ring, the narrative has finally started to shift from a playoff choker to one of the better coaches of all time. But recognition for it?

Now that Andy has his first ring, the narrative has finally started to shift from a playoff choker to one of the better coaches of all time. Yet I still feel he isn’t getting the recognition he deserves. As AG’s own Dan Harms pointed out on twitter Reid  has only had 3 losing seasons in his entire 21 season career. Those under .500 seasons were his first season as a head coach, 2005,which held a rash of injuries plus Owens’ and Westbrook’s contract disputes, and 2012 following the passing away of his son. This conversation lead to me digging a bit deeper into Reid’s statistics only to discover he has passed the greats of years past, so let’s look at a few of them:

Last year Reid surpassed KC’s own Marty Schottenheimer for #7 on the all time wins list, and now has 207 total wins. (Both Andy and Marty have 21 seasons under their belt, the lowest for anyone in the top 10.) This year Reid has a chance to move to the #6 overall spot surpassing Paul Brown (213) with just seven more wins. To move into the top 5 overall Reid would need beat out Curly Lambeau’s 226 total wins, which means 20 wins in the next two seasons. By the way, it took Lambeau 33 seasons to accomplish this feat.  After this things get a lot tougher for Reid to move up into the top five. Next on deck is Tom Landry, whose 29 seasons netted him 250 wins. Next is Belichick, the only other active coach on the list with 273, and still accumulating wins. Number two is George Halas, who coach for a crazy forty seasons for 318 wins. And at the tippy-top of the list is Don Shula, who gathered 328 wins in 33 seasons.  It’s not unreasonable to think Reid could move into fourth place all-time, needing just  an average of 11 wins over the next four seasons to do so.  Top 3 is likely but not probable, depending on how long both Reid and Belichick elect to keep coaching. Bill has currently been coaching for four more years than Andy. Reid could technically claim the number one spot, but it’s highly unlikely, since he would have to keep coaching for 11 more seasons while maintaining an 11 win average. That would tie him with Shula with just one less season coaching.

Next, let’s look at playoff rates per season. Even more amazingly, Reid has made the playoffs in 15 of his 21 season. Meaning that Andy isn’t just allergic to losing seasons (3), but is just as allergic to mediocre ones as well (3). This puts him tied 4th on the all time playoff trip list.

1. Don Shula – 19 (33)

T2. Bill Belichick – 18 (25)

T2. Tom Landry -18 (29)

T4. Andy Reid – 15 (21)

T4. Paul Brown – 15 (25)

6. Marty Schottenheimer – 13 (21)

Familiar names fill this list, but right now it looks like a race between Belichick and Reid for the top spot as a matter when, not if.  Bill needs just two more trips, while Reid needs five for that magical #20.  Again, who ultimately wins this depends when the coaches decide to retire.

This list also leads to a more depressing realization that the Chiefs have had two of the top 6 most playoff-bound head coaches of all time, and just finally got their second Superbowl win.

A better view of this is to look at playoff rates, or percent amount of times head coaches made the playoffs. Here’s playoff percentage for every coach who made the playoffs at least 10 times.

Dungy – 84.6%

Belichick- 72.0%

Reid- 71.4%

Carroll- 71.4%

Holmgren- 70.6%

Grant- 66.7%

Cowher- 66.7%

Gibbs- 62.5%

Landry- 62.1%

Schottenheimer- 61.9%

Brown- 60.0%

Shula- 57.6%

Parcells- 52.6%

Noll- 52.1%

Knox- 50.0%

Owen- 41.7%

Reid  sits comfortably tied in 3rd place with gum-chewing Pete Carroll.  Reid has been keeping up this consistency for seven  more years than Carroll. With Patrick Mahomes Reid honestly has a great chance of passing Belichick in this category. In fact, if the Chiefs make the postseason and the Patriots do not, Reid will move into the number two spot.  Dungy’s spot may never be touched. If Reid went to the playoffs for the next 15 years straight, he still would be just under Tony’s percentage.  If makes me wonder how the NFL would have changed if Dungy hadn’t retired after just 13 seasons.

Finally with a Franchise QB, if Reid decides to keep coaching there is no limits to what he can accomplish.

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Severely Concussed
Severely Concussed
06/23/2020 2:45 pm

Don’t lose sight that many of the all time coaches coached seasons that didn’t have 16 games per season. I think looking at winning percentage is a fairer way to gage the coaches.

And this is not a shot at our beloved coach. I am just trying to get accurate comparisons.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
06/23/2020 12:38 pm

Andy Reid is as good as I think he is. Don’t undercut my adoration for Big Red.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh
Reply to  HawaiiFiveOh
06/23/2020 12:42 pm
Tony Sommer
06/23/2020 10:05 am

What makes Reid exceptional is that he did it almost entirely without an elite QB. It’s easy to make the playoffs every year when you have Peyton (Dungy) or Brady (Belichick), but it’s a lot harder when you have McNabb, Vick, and Smith.

zulu trader
zulu trader
Reply to  Tony Sommer
06/23/2020 11:12 am

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