Why Worthy is Already Better Than Hill … X-Box Beats Cheetah (for now)

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By: BRaG (Ghu protect us all, I’m still alive and kicking) & upamtn

I know what you’re thinking:  “Wait, did you two morons just say that Xavier Worthy, who hasn’t played a single professional game, is better than Tyreek Hill?”  Yup, we did, but in an apples-to-apples way.  Please allow us to explain our insanity.

 

Who WAS Tyreek Hill?

Hill was a track star in high school, and won the 110M and 200M at the 2012 Georgia 5A state meet.  Later in 2012, he won another meet and, in the 200M, he missed the 1985 National Record by 1/100th of a second.  He was also named Track & Field News “High School Athlete of the Year” in 2012.

In the fall of 2012 Hill went to Garden City Community College for 2 years, used primarily as a running back as well as both kick and punt returns.  Hill went to Oklahoma State in 2014 and played one year of football there, being used again primarily as a scat back, taking advantage of his speed and durability, along with some receptions and, of course, always the returns.  He was cut from the team following his arrest and guilty plea in a domestic violence case, and ended his college career in 2015 with West Alabama.

Originally expected to go undrafted, Hill wasn’t even invited to the NFL Combine, and most GMs were wary of his DV arrest in Stillwater.  He did, however, manage to impress at least a few scouts at his Pro Day, and was taken by the Kansas City Chiefs in Round 5 of the 2016 Draft.

 

Hill’s First Two Seasons

In 2016, according to Pro Football Reference, he racked up 593 passing yards on an average of 3.8 rec/game and just 37 yds/game, catching 61 of 83 targets for a 73.5 Catch % … the rest of his all-purpose yardage total of 1836 came from rushing (267) and Kick and Punt returns. He was, a DB from FLA noted, “just a return guy” that season.

In 2017 (which was AS11’s best year as a deep passer in KC) he returned 14 fewer punts (-388 PR yds from previous) and no kicks (-384 KR yds) and still totaled 1446 All-Purpose yds, with 1183 rec yds on 75 of 105 Targets, 7 TDs, 40 1st Downs for a 71.4 Catch %, and the longest catch of his career of 79 yds (from AS11) …  Considering he entered the draft with very little receiving work under his belt, that shows one hell of an improvement over the course of one off-season. Deservedly so, if you remember the videos of his training prior to the ’17 training camp. He busted his ass, because he knew he needed to play catch-up. I would say that this alone demonstrates he wasn’t a great WR prospect after the ’16 draft.

Needless to say he continued his remarkable journey as a WR with Patrick Mahomes from 2019 through 2021, before being traded to the Miami Dolphins for a goodly number of draft picks, and has continued to be on top of the leader-boards for both receptions and yards the last 2 years with Tua as his QB.  Already at 10,000 yards for his career, Hill MAY end up as one of the top All-Time WRs in the history of the NFL.

 

Worthy Numbers in College

Unlike Hill, Xavier Worthy was used almost exclusively as a WR at Texas.  Indeed, as a Freshman, Worthy caught 62 passes for 980 yards and 12 TDs on 12 games.  For his 3-yr college career, including bowl games, Worthy had 197 receptions for 2755 yards and 26 TDs.  As a runner, he had only 7 rushing attempts for a measly 46 yards.

His Freshman year saw Worthy do just 5 Kick and Punt returns combined, although he was used more on Punt returns as a Sophomore and Junior, but his main realm was as WR.  Worthy is already a college-polished WR, much more so than Hill at this point in his young career, who won’t need any ST work to make the roster. Worthy, at 6’1″ is also 4-5″ taller than Hill, who stands 5’8″.  To be fair, Hill has an absolutely ridiculous 40″ vertical leap on his measurables, and is an uncannily talented ball-tracker.  Yet Worthy has a 41″ vertical leap himself, to go with his additional height and his own insane speed on the field, setting the NFL Combine 40-yd record earlier this year.

He likely won’t be much better than Hill in terms of WR yards, due to the Reid Playbook Effect and us having more WR room margin than last year, so next off-season he’ll be free to work on more advanced WR training than ’17 Hill could. How much he benefits from that is largely up to him, but him cracking 1,000 WR yards shouldn’t be unthinkable, even though he’ll likely have a better cast of colleagues soaking up targets.

 

Conclusion

Worthy isn’t going to make anyone completely forget Tyreek, who turned out to be so much more than anyone thought at the time he was drafted, and has continued to be incredibly productive in Miami.  But Worthy is more than “just another fast guy” as his college stats clearly show:  he’s not “just a return guy” by any means and likely won’t be used as such.  He’s a legitimate NFL WR type with legitimate College stats to back him up.  Hill turned himself from a mostly “gadget” player into one of the best WRs in the NFL, and there’s no reason to think that Worthy can’t be that same kind of WR once he gets comfortable at the NFL level.

Better than Hill?  Time will tell, but don’t bet against it.

Xavier Worthy Highlight Reel

 

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KCChef
07/03/2024 10:32 pm

” I’ll have what They’re Smoking ” … ; )

rip58
07/03/2024 5:11 pm

What ? Are you kidding me? For fucksakes… I do love Worthy ,but he hasn’t taken one NFL snap yet. And I’ve never seen you be positive about anything. So I’m confused… but what a lovely story….

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😀

NovaChiefs
07/03/2024 4:28 pm

Maybe.
All we can say today is Worthy had a better college career, which we have seen, can mean squat.
Hill is a unique player who has skills a man his size should not have. What he has that doesn’t show up in your charts is, as Lou Grant would say, spunk. He made himself the player he is. He shut up detractors, weathered not one but two false storms against his character, and dragged himself into the top of the WR ranks.
Does Worthy have that kind of spunk? Man, I hope so, but the only thing that hints at it is playing through a broken hand (For the record, I would not have).
Worthy is farther along than Hill was at this point in his career. That is all you can say. How many “Pro ready” players have we seen last a year or two, and then disappear.
Bringing up Hill’s first two seasons means you wrote this two years too soon. You can’t compare a guy’s first two seasons in a new system, as a 5th rd pick, to a guy who, as a 1st rd pick, hasn’t seen an NFL snap, yet.
Better? At this point in their careers, maybe.
At this point, sadly, doesn’t matter one whit.
What we have is potential.

NovaChiefs
Reply to  upamtn
07/03/2024 7:03 pm

“I’m just a man ahead of his time”
I think that’s what you meant to say

hoosierchief
07/03/2024 2:33 pm

excellent write up guys!

Team Player
07/03/2024 1:55 pm

One idiot just sees that one player is a millionaire and not giving it all to charity.

Another idiot sees percentage of salary cap only.

A third idiot looks at the rap sheet only.

But BRaG can look beyond all that and make real objective analysis. To him, I will agree but point out durability and hunger are almost certainly on the other side of the equation. Still, the balance is TBD.

(So says the 4th idiot who comes across as contrarian when he sees himself in the role of a devil’s advocate)

ArrowFan
07/03/2024 9:57 am

My eye tells me Hill is a one of kind player in that his short area quickness is unmatched by anyone. He is extremely fast in a straight line as well. But his ability to freeze defenders at the line of scrimmage then blow past them is what makes him so dangerous. Some of his most impactful plays as a Chief only went for 1 or 2 yards but picked up a huge 1st down when we needed it. It’s hard not to get excited about Worthy and hopefully our passing game will dominate the narrative this season once again. But I don’t see Worthy demonstrating the same short area quickness of Hill. I do get what you are saying about the comparison of each players WR ability and Worthy is defiantly a better WR coming out of the draft than Hill was. I would add that had Hill played WR consistently for a school like Texas his college numbers would have been very impressive as well.

probablyamistake
07/03/2024 9:57 am
probablyamistake
Reply to  upamtn
07/03/2024 4:51 pm

It was a joke.

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