When a 3x MVP and 6x Super Bowl champion goes on the free agency market it’s going to be the biggest news story, even if that guy is old enough to be a grandpa. And this morning there were a couple NFL insiders who suddenly reached the same conclusion.
Fans and the media alike will hail this as the end of the Patriots dynasty, which in a sense it is, since Brady and Belichick have been the only constants since their first Super Bowl win over the Rams in 2001. But Brady leaving doesn’t necessarily make them worse, and Brady doesn’t necessarily make his new team better.
Consider that in 2019, Brady’s ANY/A (which is basically a better version of passer rating from Pro Football Reference) was 6.24, good for 17th in the NFL among those who had 224 pass attempts. That’s lower than other free agent quarterbacks like Tannehill, Rivers, and Bridgewater, and also lower than guys who are in the “not a free agent, but could be replaced by Brady if he decided to go there” category like Dak Prescott and Derek Carr.
So it begs the question. Brady leaving the Patriots will certainly be interesting just because of how long he’s been there and the amount of success he’s had, but will it make any real, actual difference in how the 2020 season shakes out?