Tony’s Picks: Top 5 Early Win Totals

 10 replies

Tony tells you were to put your money in a way too early odds on total wins

There are lots of degenerate gamblers like myself eager to give casinos their money, so it should be little surprise that they already have win totals you can bet on for the 2020 NFL season.

A lot of these look about right, but there are a handful I really like. So today let’s do the top 5 over/under win totals.

1) Ravens under 11

While the Ravens had a strong regular season last year, there are a lot of red flags around them.

Firstly, while they infamously went for it on 4th down more than any other team, they also converted those over 70% of the time. 4th down conversion attempts are high-leverage plays. If they work they greatly increase your chances of winning, but the reverse is also true if they don’t. This was shown in their playoff loss to the Titans, where they went 0/4 on 4th down conversion attempts.

If they continue being aggressive on 4th down in 2020, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll continue to convert at that 70% rate. Even a slight drop could have a huge impact on their record.

Secondly, run-first quarterbacks have historically struggled to maintain success over a long period of time. While guys like Kaepernick and Vick have started strong, they eventually declined once teams figured out how to play them. It’s possible that Jackson breaks that trend, but I prefer to side with history.

With their division also likely to be tougher, the Ravens will struggle to match their 2019 success.

2) Chiefs over 11.5

Andy Reid has coached 7 season in Kansas City, and in all 7 the Chiefs have exceeded their Vegas win total. That’s the type of trend I can get behind. Not to mention that the Chiefs have won 12 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

The other thing to like about the Chiefs, despite this line being very high, is that they won 12 games in 2019 despite a multitude of injuries, including to Mahomes. A fully healthy Mahomes playing 16 games seems like a virtual lock to get to 12 wins.

3) Dolphins over 5.5

Call me crazy, but the Dolphins won 5 games in 2019, and with plenty of draft picks and cap space they should be even better in 2020. So I don’t quite understand why this line is so low.

4) Patriots under 10.5

Usually I would go with history, and history says the Patriots are a virtual lock to win 11 games. But this isn’t your father’s Patriots. In 2019 they won 12 games, but had a ridiculously easy schedule. Their defense is likely to decline, as will Brady if he returns. I personally don’t think they’ll even make the playoffs.

5) Lions over 6.5

This one’s for you Tre.

Naturally the Lions’ 3-12-1 record was not enough for them to claim the division, but there is a silver lining for them going into 2020. When Stafford played, the Lions were 3-4-1, which is about as close to .500 as you can get without out actually being there.

It’s not that I think the Lions will be great or anything, but they should be able to reach 7 or 8 wins with Stafford playing the entire season.

Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
5 Comment threads
5 Thread replies
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
9 Comment authors
Team Playervvet818sydenhamStramtoReidBleedingRedAndGold Recent comment authors
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Team Player
Team Player

Pheagles I’m taking the under.


All 5 of these go over……..because I suck at gambling

Season 3 Episode 23 GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY
Buf, Cin, Dal, Mia, Wash


One that caught my eye: Buffalo over 8.5. They’re improving, they got a sniff of the playoffs, they’ll be wanting more than that. And the rest of their division, including the Patsies is meh. I like them to win the AFC East. (But there’s a reason I don’t gamble: I’m not good at it.)


I havent gotten into gambling yet but all 3 of the other afc west totals seem high. 7, 7.5 and 8. I can see 1 out of three getting to or exceeding 8 but thats it. Would it make sense to bet under on all 3 counting on at least 2 to go under?

First the chargers. A team that won 0 division games last year and doesnt have a qb. I feel like the 7.5 mark might be propped up by the ridiculous idea of Brady going to LA. The only semi logical case is that Goodell is willing to give Kraft unlimited hand jobs in exchange for rescuing the disastrous move to LA.

Raiders. Derek Carr.

Denver. Most unknown of the 3. They played okay down the stretch. They still have a lot of holes on that defense and on the oline. Im not a big Vic Fangio fan. They feel like a 6 win team to me.


Chargers – only Rodney Harrison still believes
Raiders – Derek Carr (forced to repeat that comment) RAIDERS SUCK
Broncos – played better once Lock became starter – how long before the team gives up on him?


What’s the over/under on all 3 Carr brothers signing up here just so that they can all block you for comments like that?


All I really care about is, the AFC west and who is a playoff contender in the AFC.

The Chargers don’t have a QB, if I was a free agent QB, I would consider L A, seriously ! I believe the Raiders are building a solid foundation, and I believe they are building a team to compete with the Chiefs. You can call me stupid, I believe the Raiders are building a team for the long run.

Being a MU tigers fan, I will be shocked if the Broncos will be a contender with Drew Lock.

I’ll take the Raiders, Chargers, and over. Denver and under. I’m staying away from the Pats and Colt’s because we have no idea what is going on over there. I’ll take the over on the Texans even though I believe their HC sucks. I believe the odds should be at 10.5 for the Ravens and I will take the over, otherwise, I’ll stay away from the Raven’s.

As for the Chiefs, I’ll take the over. I do have concerns with them losing Fuller, Breeland, possibly CJ and Watkins.


Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are locks to get a double digit win total by themselves. Andy’s absolute worst season here was 9-7 with 2 major season-ending injuries from DJ and Mike DeVito, and Eric Berry missing 9 games due to injuries and illness. And they had like no offense outside of JC. But that’s the past. I’d definitely take the over on 11.5 wins, pending the Chris Jones decision of course.