Tony’s Picks: Week 10

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Tony tells you where to put your money for this week’s NFL games.

Picks have returned for the 2019 season, but this time instead of picking against the spread I’m going to simply pick the winner and loser of each game.

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Before I begin, a little update. I’m going to start including benchmarks to judge how well I’m really doing in my picks.

The reality of picking games is that anybody should be able to pick above .500. For example, if you just pick the Patriots and Chiefs to win, the Dolphins to lose, and flip a coin for everybody else, you’ll have a winning record.

So to judge whether I’m really doing well, I’ll include the records of home teams (since home teams tend to have a winning record) and the records of Vegas favorites.

Last week: 6-8

Overall: 83-51-1

Home Teams (Benchmark): 68-66-1

Vegas Favorites (Benchmark): 84-50-1

This week: 13-0

Raiders over Chargers

The battle for 2nd place in the AFC West. This is a tough one to pick. They are about equal, so I’ll go with the home team.

Bears over Lions

It’s always tough picking Trubisky, but the Lions aren’t all that good, so the Bears should be able to win at home.

Ravens over Bengals

Just watch, the Ravens will come off a win over the Patriots only to give the Bengals their first win because screw logic.

The Bengals have now lost 15 of their last 16 games, a stat that gives me bad flashbacks to the days where the stat around the Chiefs was that they had lost twenty-something of their last twenty-something games. Thankfully, we’re now on the winning side of that equation.

Bills over Browns

This is such a public pick, but I can’t help it. Even though the Browns are favored (and I can understand why), I think the Bills defense will be too much for the Browns.

Saints over Falcons

The easiest pick of the week. With Brees back the Saints are arguably the best team in the NFL, while the Falcons are competing for the #1 overall pick in April. This would be the biggest upset of the year if the Falcons won.

Giants over Jets

The battle of New York, and what a matchup fans in the Big Apple will get with these teams combined for a 3-14 record. It’s nice to see though, as it shows how much parity there is in the NFL. The top teams are from small markets like Green Bay, New Orleans, and Kansas City, while the teams in the nations biggest markets are struggling.

Buccaneers over Cardinals

Did you know Tampa Bay hasn’t made the playoffs since 2007? And this isn’t even their longest playoff drought, they also spent 1983-1996 watching the playoffs from home. The way things are going they may break that record.

Colts over Dolphins

Brissett was limited in practice at the time of writing, so it’s unclear whether he or Hoyer will start. Either way they should win, but with the Dolphins playing better and Hoyer prone to throwing touchdowns to the wrong team this game is very lose-able for the Colts if Brissett can’t go.

Packers over Panthers

I can’t believe how thoroughly the Chargers dominated the Packers last week. Why couldn’t we see that version of Green Bay a couple weeks ago?

Rams over Steelers

The Steelers may be 4-4, but I’m not buying what they’re selling. All their wins came against crap teams (the Hoyer Colts count as a crap team). Although to be fair all their losses were to good teams, so maybe they are a decent team?

Cowboys over Vikings

A very close matchup, but the Cowboys are at home. Plus it’s on Sunday Night Football, and we all know how much Cousins thrives in the limelight (i.e. not at all).

49ers over Seahawks

What’s this? A good Monday Night Football matchup? I’ll be damned.

Chiefs over Titans

I assume Mahomes will play, in which case the Chiefs should absolutely win this game. But if Matt Moore plays again it’s much closer to 50/50.

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TNCHIEFS
TNCHIEFS

I think the Panthers hold the Packers. They’re playing solid football. With Cam on IR I really hope they play Will Grier, their No. 3 qb at some point. He was one of my top QB picks in the draft. I think he’s a diamond in the rough.

legal_kush
legal_kush

It’s possible. This idea that Green Bay has this suddenly good-to-great defense is pretty much smoke and mirrors once you look back at the offenses they built that six week reputation on.

Leaf
Leaf

I assume Mahomes will play, in which case the Chiefs should absolutely win this game. But if Matt Moore plays again it’s much closer to 50/50

Damn lil Skip. You never change. MM just took two of the leagues beat down to the wire, even winning one. And you think him playing makes us close to the garbage pile that is Ten?

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Berserker

Yeah. Unless we let Henry make us look stupid, or unless Tannehill has some kind of one-off career validating type game, then a Matt Moore led Chiefs team should beat this Titans team by two TDs easily.

TNCHIEFS
TNCHIEFS

It’s interesting that in a previous life Matt Moore backed up Chad Henne and Ryan Tannehill, and had success behind both, even leading the Dolphins to the playoffs once.

TNCHIEFS
TNCHIEFS

We got Henry. If anything their defense would be the deciding factor. But hey, even with MM, this is the Chiefs!

slackator
slackator

Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 82-37

This week: Raiders, Lions, Ravens, Bills, Saints, Giants, Cardinals, Colts, Packers, Rams, Vikings, Seahawks, Chiefs

legal_kush
legal_kush

The Browns will screw it up. Kareem Hunt is eligible so they will screw up the only thing they do well, which is run the ball with Chubb.
Mayfield will add to his league-leading interception total, trying to force the ball to OBJ.

Berserker

But what if Mayfield starts trying to force the ball to Hunt?

Man, if that team turns things around right when Hunt gets off suspension, that would just be such a Chiefy thing to happen.

MasterChief
MasterChief

I really think Hunt can help them out.

RoyalChiefHawks
RoyalChiefHawks

I’m starting him for my fantasy team juuuust in case. Not many other options with a few players on their BYE

NovaChiefs
NovaChiefs

I will actually watch this game (sort of) to see Hunt play. Always liked him, wished he wasn’t such a screw up, and hope he straightens out. But Cleveland, so, well, sorry Kareem.

legal_kush
legal_kush

Just hand it off to him. The Bills defense is way over-rated against the run. But this is the Browns we are talking about. Baker Pornstache has the worst completion percentage in the league, has like 12 completions all season when pressured, and has thrown more interceptions than any QB in the league unless he’s tied for the lead, and has fewer pass TD’s than Lamar Jackson even if you throw out his Miami game!
So what will the Browns do? Drop back all game and try to throw it downfield.
But if they do try and run it, why would you bring in Hunt and demote the only offensive weapon that has been consistently productive for you all year?
Oh, yeah, you’re the Browns.
There is a reason they are favored, but it has more to do with Buffalo playing nobody and not having to travel often or far, and this Cleveland trip will be exhausting, right?
This is a game the Browns should win, so they’ll lose.

Berserker

I actually liked Mayfield as a prospect. Not first-overall liked, but I think I was probably more optimistic about him than most other non-Browns fans. But now, I’m starting to wonder if he’s not just an Aaron Murray who got a better opportunity.

TNCHIEFS
TNCHIEFS

I wasn’t big on Mayfield. I wasn’t big on Manzel either, just from a player perspective. Even if he hadn’t screwed everything up I don’t think he would’ve been that productive as a QB.

TNCHIEFS
TNCHIEFS

Dorsey drafted Hunt and then picked him up again. I believe he’s gonna ball. He didn’t get the press he deserved, well maybe there at the end he did. But he’s a special player.

legal_kush
legal_kush

His talent isn’t the question. He hasn’t seen live action in a while, and he’s gonna get thrown into a dysfunctional system and potentially further roil an already tense locker room. I’m not sure his production for a few plays a game or whatever they give him early on is gonna immediately translate to wins. I’d probably even bet against it, although I have not yet.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh

This is probably the easiest week of picks so far. There’s only two that might swing the other direction: The Chargers/Raiders and The Seahawks/49ers. You can’t count out Russell Wilson. Somehow he’s able to make things out of nothing.

Eze chief kingdom
Eze chief kingdom

if it was in seattle I would go seattle but its in SF so i would roll with them

CHIEFSandSABRES

Lions probably gunna beat the Bears and cost Nagy his job.

SuperMegaChief
SuperMegaChief

If that’s the case, what do you think the odds are that he lands back with us in some capacity.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh

I don’t agree with that. The Bears are 1 year removed from a playoff berth under Nagy/Trubisky. He’s got at least another year.

Eze chief kingdom
Eze chief kingdom

yea and a division champion. I think mitch would be out the door before nagy would

Dave B.
Dave B.

If anyone costs him his job it will be Trubisky.

Doughboy66
Doughboy66

He can come back when Bienemy get a head coaching job somewhere