Saturday O/T: Packers Defensive Tendencies

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The Packers have been one of the better defenses in the NFL this season, particularly in pass defense. They play a lot of man and press-man defense combined with different blitz packages to get to the quarterback. This is easily the best group of offensive weapons they have faced to this point, and with Sammy playing on Sunday, the Chiefs could look to exploit some of the things the Packers like to do against 11 personnel.

I would think the Chiefs see more Nickel than Dime against the Packers because of Matt Moore at quarterback but the simple fact that the Chiefs will have Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins on the field could force the Packers to play more Dime and that would open up running lanes for McCoy and the Williams’. If the Chiefs are going to make use of play-action passes and give Moore time in the pocket they will need to take advantage of Dime and even Nickel looks and get chunk plays on the ground.

The Packers also like to mix things up with their blitzes, the goal being to bring more than you can block or more commonly, make the line think there will be more pressure than there is and find a way to get a free rusher with just four or five guys coming.

This is typically how teams get away with playing man coverage on crossing routes and slants. The left tackle has to make a decision on who to block and that allows one man to come free quickly. the two safety look pre-snap also confuses reads from the quarterback. This is a well-designed play by defensive coordinator Mike Pettine and I expect him to try to confuse Moore early and often.

For as good as the Packers have been against the pass one thing continues to get them in trouble, tight ends. Just last week David Waller racked up 126 receiving yards and two touchdowns on the Packers. The Chiefs have the best tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce and I think Reid might be dialing up a few special plays for him this week.

The Raiders design this play well out of 22 personnel and it forces the Packers to bring eight men into the box to try and stop the run. This creates mismatches on the outside, particularly to the right where one defender ends up responsible for two pass catchers. The receiver runs a go route and Waller runs a corner route. The go route takes the corner with it and leaves Waller wide open for a 16-yard completion. Waller also found himself wide open down the middle of the field on a seam route where the defense just lost him. Should have been a third touchdown for him.

The Chiefs can find a way to scheme Kelce open especially with Hill and Watkins on the field together, not to mention Hardman’s speed. This is going to be a true test for the Chiefs offensive will and Reid’s ability to gameplan with a backup quarterback. If the Chiefs can finally get the ground game going on Sunday Night, their chance of victory goes up exponentially. What will you be looking for on either side of the ball?

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BleedingRedAndGold

The Afternight is nearly upon us, so let the Children of the Night congregate at the traditional location.

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon

I hate to be that guy, and my god i hope like hell im 100% wrong, but im just not really emotionally prepared to watch what i think rodgers is gonna do to this depleted defense. We will have to score on every possession cuz we aint stopping them

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon

and in other news the razorbacks stink out loud

BleedingRedAndGold

Up’d yours for the expression. Work of art, up there with “ugly as homemade sin”.

Jdklks
Jdklks

I’m the opposite. Expecting a loss and knowing it’s because we have a ton of key players injured makes me very stoic about the whole thing. It will be the least anxious I am for a game all season.

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon

i can handle a loss. its the looking completely incompetent in primetime, feeding into that BS narrative that we cant win in primetime, and im still a old school defense wins championships guy, and its painful to see a defense just get lit

Jdklks
Jdklks

I think Al and Chris will continually make a big deal of Mahomes being out, which will soften the “can’t win in prime time” blow. But the reality is that the Chiefs aren’t ever getting respect from other fans or the media until they win a super bowl. So better to just tune that stuff out.

As for the defense, I understand that. But we’re also running up against Rodgers after having one the best games of his career and missing our 100m dollar pass rusher, best DL, and a starting corner. We’re probably going to get lit up, but in the end the reality for the defense will probably be somewhere in between their performances against the Broncos and here.

BleedingRedAndGold

ChrisAl will do what they do as established, reliable professionals: Try to inject excitement into the presentation. Unfortunately, they follow a formula, too, so at the first sign of trouble on either side of the ball, they’ll try to stir up some controversy. It’s a standard practice, as exemplified by the booth bozos trying to determine the “correct” call while awaiting a video review. This practice inherently stirs up controversy every time the booth bozos get it wrong and can’t believe that the refs were the ones who got it wrong. That’s not a typo, BTW, it’s IMO an accurate assessment of how the booth bozos talk following an incorrect guess of theirs. It’s the epitome of presenting second-guessing as superior to the boots on the ground who have to actually make the call. Ignorance is Strength, in spades.

But since bean-counters run the corporations, the formulae must be followed. Predictable results trump everything, and to seal the deal they sell their formulaic business model to people who operate by reliable formulae. Those folks take little notice of fans other than minor adjustments to keep the bulk of them from getting too pissed off.

Unfortunately, their models do not and probably cannot account for lack of trust from the fanbase. This is inevitable when you reduce people to numbers and statistics, it renders you unable to get in touch with your customers. And so the slide progresses, and the only hope we fans have is the upcoming CBA negotiation, between two sides that collectively view the fans as fungible.

BleedingRedAndGold

But unfortunately for the NFL, their behavior undermining the trust of fans leaves them in a bad position to negotiate, because if they attempt a lockout and try to play “scab teams”, they will lose fans in droves. That’s supported by MLB’s attempt at something similar, and I don’t think it’s fully recovered from it, even now. Negative word-of-mouth may be the most difficult of PR phenomena to put an end to, it has a tendency to linger, and impact later mistakes.

BleedingRedAndGold

If we lose, my hope is that the D does everything basically right but are simply out-talented. That’s a better result than some might think, because doing their jobs correctly is what’s going to pay off in the longer term. So if a GB receiver get open on the strength of talent and Rodgers get the ball to him via superior talent, I’m not going to freak, even the best DBs get beat on occasion. But it’s teamwork that makes the difference. There’s a technical term for defenses where everyone lines and tries to win their one-on-one against “their guy”: Horrible.

Teamwork always defeats individual effort, in the long run. Thus did Rome forge an empire that endured for centuries.

Dave B.
Dave B.

Leaf
Leaf

I’ve seen other guys do more egregious things this year on long scores. This seems really petty to me

Nasrani
Nasrani

Methinks this is an off year for NFL rule enforcement. Those that they don’t enforce are egregious, and those that they do enforce are iffy at best.

Leaf
Leaf

Off year? That just sounds like the status quo

BleedingRedAndGold

At a guess, it’s a couple messages from the NFL to him, being “We cut you some slack and took a PR hit by not suspending you, don’t put our PR at risk again” and “We’ve overlooked you doing this for years, but it ends now.”. Unfair? Probably. Understandable? Definitely. My advice to Hill would be to let it go, as he’s PR-vulnerable, too.

Yeah, it’s also the peace sign, but “flashing the deuces” is apparently an insult gesture of some kind. Calling the other guy shit, I guess? Anyway, as trademarks go, that’s not a good hill to die on.

Leaf
Leaf

If they were trying to send a message, you would think the fine would be higher. I mean $10K? He has that in the cup holder of his car.

Nasrani
Nasrani

KSU got the upset, Michigan currently leads Notre Dame… it’s a good college football day.

(And yes, I know how everyone here feels about Jim Harbaugh. I don’t like him either, but since I’m going to school here, I figure I might as well pull for the football team.)

Also, this:

Tony Sommer

Go M teams!

Also the Nationals, which is a weird one for me. Usually I don’t care enough about baseball to root for any particular team in the World Series, but for some reason I really hate the Astros. I don’t know why, I certainly can’t give a rational reason, but I do.

Dave B.
Dave B.

They’re in Texas. Hate away.

Edit: I meant Texas not Dallas.

Tony Sommer

Houston

Dave B.
Dave B.

I meant Texas. I’m dumb but I’m not that dumb.

Tony Sommer

At my new job they agreed to pay for 10 Chinese lessons per month. And since my Chinese teacher just got back from a 3 week long vacation I’m having Chinese lessons every day for the rest of the month.

Yesterday she apparently decided I needed to do tougher lessons, so she gave me two debate topics for today. One is whether the internet’s biggest strength is entertainment or practical things. The other is whether competition or cooperation is better for moving society forward.

BleedingRedAndGold

Good debate topic, as both sides of each one are needed. As simplistic, off-the-cuff answers, I’d say the “stronger” ones are entertainment and competition because they drive the other side of of each comparison more than their companion drives them. For the first, consider an analogy using books: A dictionary’s the epitome of utility books, but if you don’t read for pleasure, you only use it when you need it enough for something else. However if you read for pleasure, you are more likely to use the dictionary in conjunction with that, as well – and you may be more willing to dig through one for utility’s sake out of sheer familiarity.

For the second, competition, because it drives cooperation. If everyone’s cooperating and nobody’s competing, the fire goes out of progress, because without competition there’s no time pressure to find solutions to problems. On top of that competition demands cooperation as the only way for the less powerful to be competitive.

Both are comic-book level analysis, and arguments at a more sophisticated level are much closer to each other, but I write enough term-paper comments as it is.

Tony Sommer

Agreed on both, but I think the internet’s biggest strength is the practicality. Everything uses the internet, including me and my Chinese teacher. If there was no internet I’d have a much tougher time learning Chinese.

BleedingRedAndGold

Sure, but on the flip side, in its earliest days the internet was almost entirely utility and had very little entertainment value – and most people didn’t much bother with it. Even commercialization did less to drive the growth of the net than entertainment (which includes socializing, BTW) has. Early on there were many who thought that retail commerce on the internet would never be viable.

It’s only as more and more started to use the net for entertainment that the internet really took off, because that provided market pool for more utilities, economies of scale started to kick in, and the more robust the net became, the more utilities that could be supported.

pompano
pompano

Yin vs Yang = Equilibrium?

BleedingRedAndGold

Or mutual satisfaction. Same mechanism, different destination.

pompano
pompano

satisfaction? Porn is entertaining and practical, not necessarily mutual.

BleedingRedAndGold

With porn the relevant yin or yang never engages with its opposite number, therefore yin vs. yang does not occur. Like, duh, grasshopper.

pompano
pompano

apparently we watch different porn 🙂

BleedingRedAndGold

Not necessarily, though you may watch more of whatever than I do. Anyway, your reply misses my point, that with porn the relevant yin-yang equation implies that the relevant ones are that of the viewer and that of the viewed, regardless of who is doing what to whom in the video. Paid or not, part of the point of each recorded encounter is for others to view, but the genital action between participants on the clip have no direct bearing on that relationship, only incidental.

And I think I have to retire permanently now, as I have just used reason and logic to dismantle an assertion about porn. What’s left, after that. Oh, wait…

pompano
pompano

I have much to learn.
And I stay away from assertation porn btw, anthing German too FWIW.

Leaf
Leaf

It isn’t so much equilibrium, as it is dualism. One can not exist without the other.

pompano
pompano

Does a balanced duality not achieve it?

Leaf
Leaf

Yes, a balanced duality does form an equilibrium. My point is that yin yang really represents the dualism as a whole, and the constant fighting of the two opposite forces, and not so much what it is when they in perfect harmony.

pompano
pompano

I understand, just being glib on a Saturday night.
Then again you call it a “fight”, is that just another term for inequities of power between them, or is it active conflict with volition

Leaf
Leaf

Understood. I was merely pointing out a common misconception people have about what the concept of yin yang really means.

And to answer your question, I used “fighting” in regards to how two opposites seem to conflict with each other, such as day and night, or summer and winter. It probably wasn’t the best phrase to use as it just adds confusion. Other dualities, like man and women, aren’t really actively fighting each other, but need each other to exist. They are interconnected.

It’s been a while since I took that Eastern Religions class, and I’ve been a bit under the weather of late. If I come across as a bit all over the place and rambly, I apologize ?

pompano
pompano

No apology necessary, I enjoy a discussion.
Used to love playing devil’s advocate, don’t get the oppotunity much anymore.
Be good and Go Chiefs! 🙂

BleedingRedAndGold

How they go about doing it I will leave to the experts, like you Dan. I think the biggest question going into the game is how well the offense can run the ball to the left. If they can run to the left 2/3 as effectively as to the right, I think they’ll be able to keep up with GB as far as scoring goes. The logic’s pretty simple, really. If GB doesn’t have to respect the run game to the left, not only can they shift their run defense extras to the other side, any run fakes to that side become less effective, as well.

So for me it comes down to the left side of the line. If Erving and whoever starts at LG can produce even NFL average play for their pairing, the offense should work well enough to not lose the game. Of course, that adds to the load on the defense, so more is better.

BleedingRedAndGold

On the D side the question for me is similar: With Clark out, how well can we seal the edges without weakening the middle. Clark could basically lock down whichever edge he lined up on, so while Spags can scheme a little help to the side he’d normally man, it can’t be much. In short, someone’s going to have to step up pretty big in that regard for the D to likewise play well enough to not lose.

Of course, that leaves the equation with a paradox, because if both sides play a little bit better than “not lose the game”, the win should be inevitable, and it isn’t the case. Where it actually gets us is to a coin flip, because those are on an absolute scale, sort of. Win probability relies more on a relative scale, with GB’s level of play factored in. As a crude, extreme example would be if scoring opportunities for both teams were limited and equal, and both teams settled for FGs every time, with the exception being GB getting a TD instead of a FG just once.