Picks have returned for the 2019 season, but this time instead of picking against the spread I’m going to simply pick the winner and loser of each game.
Last week: 10-5-1
This week: 16-0
Panthers over Buccaneers
The Panthers are better and are at home, and easy pick.
49ers over Bengals
San Fransisco isn’t good, but the Bengals are even worse.
Chargers over Lions
The Chargers almost lost to the Colts at home, so maybe the Lions can actually pull off the win at home. Probably not, but we can dream.
Packers over Vikings
The Packers look like they have a good defense this year, which should be scary for the rest of the NFL. Or maybe Trubisky is just that bad, which should be scary for the city of Chicago.
Titans over Colts
I watched the Titans-Browns game, since I had the Browns as one of the top teams in the AFC and need to know whether to abandon them. The blowout had two main causes, penalties (mostly holding) and Mayfield’s poor play.
As far as the Titans are concerned I wouldn’t read too much into it. They’re a good team, but I’m not ready to declare them a great team. Even so, they’re better than the Colts, who are going to struggle to get to .500.
Patriots over Dolphins
I don’t think I’ve ever seen an 18.5 point road favorite in the NFL before. Vegas usually gives 3 points for home field, so they’re saying the Patriots would be favored by 24.5 in New England! Just absurd.
The Patriots are obviously a lot better, and will almost certainly win, but don’t be surprised if the game is closer than expected. The Patriots have a long history of struggling in Miami.
Bills over Giants
I’ve been on the Bills bandwagon (well, relatively speaking) since last year, so I was happy they pulled out the win despite their best efforts to lose last week. This week they’re facing an even worse New York City team, so they should win this week as well.
Steelers over Seahawks
Both teams had disappointing a week 1, but I’m a bit more willing to dismiss Pittsburgh’s loss since they were on the road against a good team rather than nearly losing at home to a bad team.
Cowboys over Redskins
I felt the Cowboys were really underrated coming into this year (something I never thought I’d say), and so far they have proven the doubters wrong. They’ll get off to a 2-0 start by beating the Redskins in Washington.
Ravens over Cardinals
The Ravens must have the easiest first two games of any team in the NFL. While I still don’t think they’re very good, the Cardinals looked like a dumpster fire for most of their first game. The Ravens will win again.
Texans over Jaguars
It’s like nobody watched the Jaguars play last week, because the Texans are 9 point favorites even though Minshew played well. I have these teams as roughly equal, but the Texans are at home so they’re the pick. Just don’t be surprised if the Jaguars win.
Bears over Broncos
In a week where seemingly every half decent quarterback did well, the Bears and Broncos had terrible outings from their signal callers. The Bears have a lot more talent on their team though, so they should win easily.
Rams over Saints
Both won close games in week 1 over quality opponents, and I rank them roughly equally, so the edge goes to the home team.
Falcons over Eagles
I thought the Falcons were underrated and the Eagles overrated coming into the year, and in week 1 the Eagles at least seemed to prove me right. The Falcons did extremely poorly against the Vikings, but I’m holding out hope that it was just a fluke.
Browns over Jets
As mentioned above, the biggest contribution to the Browns’ shocking loss was penalties. The fact that they were competitive at all despite them shows how good they can be. It was only when Mayfield started throwing picks that the Titans were able to pull away.
A lot of people had concerns over their offensive line, which could be why they had so many holding penalties, so it will be something to keep an eye on. The Jets are much worse than the Titans though, so the Browns should be able to win.
Of course right as I finish writing this I see that Darnold will be out with mono. It doesn’t change the pick, but makes it more of a must win for Cleveland. If they can’t win this game then there’s little hope of doing much in the playoffs.
Chiefs over Raiders
The last game the Chiefs will ever play in Oakland, and they should win easily even with a hobbled Mahomes and no Hill.