AG Round Table: The Next Alex Smith

 60 replies

Is Daniel Jones the NFL’s next Alex Smith? The Arrowhead Guys discuss.

Tyler Macoubrie (tgmacoubrie@gmail.com)

Tyler: Oh man, some guy just dropped an article about how the Daniel Jones hate needs to stop. He then goes on to say “he didn’t have the talent around him like Murray or Haskins did”….a mediocre QB who needs the right supporting cast you say? We talking about Daniel Jones or Alex Smith? And yes, there’s a bit about not enough arm strength too.

Tony Sommer (ajsommer1@gmail.com)

Tony: To be fair, in college the talent gap is much bigger, so it can have a much bigger impact.

Dan Harms (f16mech.dh@gmail.com)

Dan: That says as much about Jones as the guys around him lol.

Tony Sommer (ajsommer1@gmail.com)

Tony: Which is why Alabama with Jalen Hurts would have crushed Texas Tech with Mahomes, but give them both NFL rosters and Mahomes would dominate.

Tyler Macoubrie (tgmacoubrie@gmail.com)

Tyler: I just found it funny that reading it you could almost replace “Daniel Jones” with “Alex Smith” and it sounds exactly like the Alex Wars…which I will admit, I was on the “give Alex a good supporting cast” side until he did get that cast and was the same QB. Then I realized it was him and not someone else’s fault.

Tony Sommer (ajsommer1@gmail.com)

Tony: Smith showed he could win consistently with the talent he had, he just had some bad luck in the playoffs. At least compared to somebody like Eli.

01lowbird (jonesy_83@hotmail.com)

Adam: 18 points at home…

Dan Harms (f16mech.dh@gmail.com)

Dan: Alex didn’t elevate players around him. He used the talent, big difference. Mahomes makes players better. He did it in college too.

Tony Sommer (ajsommer1@gmail.com)

Tony: Both true, but he still got unlucky against the Colts and Titans. So he should have at least had a couple extra playoff wins.

Dan Harms (f16mech.dh@gmail.com)

Dan: The funny thing about this QB class is that we don’t know if any of them can elevate the players around them. They were throwing to wide open guys, outside of maybe Drew Lock. Which could be a scary reality in a few years.

Matt (mr.chief85@gmail.com)

Matt: Alex probably should’ve had two more playoff wins, but he also wasn’t good enough to make “likely” a certainty.

Tony Sommer (ajsommer1@gmail.com)

Tony: EJ Manual just retired. We’re now down to 23 QB’s.

David Friedman (davefriedman0351@gmail.com)

Dave: SHIT WERE FUCKED OH NO DAMMIT!

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Chiefs4322
Chiefs4322

Sigh, the difference on Smith was always the glass half full or half empty people. It seemed EVERYONE rated him middle of the pack.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

I see Smith as better than 75-85% of QBs who make it to the NFL.

Maw423
Maw423

I think it’s a little early to make the determination, but I’d say most teams would ecstatic to have an “Alex Smith level QB. Especially as a rookie or first year starter. If nothing else, Alex’s character and professionalism is a huge boost compared to a lot of the NFL news in regards to players, new and old. We know all about that, unfortunately. There is something to be said for consistency and stability, and for all of his limitations, Alex was part of a very successful period of Chiefs football.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

The odds of either one of these rookie quarterbacks being as good as Alex Smith are very small.

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon

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probablyamistake
probablyamistake

This is why I was apprehensive about getting involved with this blog to begin with. A site created by haters for haters. You guys aren’t gonna let this go, so later dudes.

Berserker
Berserker

Speaking of not letting things go…

ChiefArrowhead
ChiefArrowhead

I think you might have read this while upset about something else. I didn’t take it as hating on Smith, I mean I’ve read much worse. I was probably considered an Alex apologist as well.

Berserker
Berserker

No, he didn’t. He reacts this way every time Alex’s name comes up. He just can’t let Alex go.

backbone313
backbone313

I’m riding a horse… shirtless!

Give me Chad Pennington over Alex Smith everyday and twice on Sundays

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Citing game statistics of QBs is hate? Interesting.

slackator
slackator

the only stat that means anything for Smithers is OMGQBWINZ!! which coincidentally is not a real stat

WaywerdSon
WaywerdSon

i always looked at it like pitchers and goalies. the games that are won when they play are generally credited to them, and in football its not offical but when they talk about QBs wins are always brought up. But you know, i havent missed the day after day after day of smith wars, lets leave dead things alone

Maw423
Maw423

Can always count on you for an over the top comment.

StramtoReid
StramtoReid

What would happen if Trent Green and Alex Smith switched teams and Alex got to play with one of the greatest O-lines in NFL history?

I say Alex is still a pro bowl QB. While Green is a bust.

If Eli and Smith switched teams Alex has two Super Bowls and Eli is a bust

It blows my mind, that we had to deal with all these sucky QB before Alex, and people still hate Alex.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Alex is better than the average QB. He’s not HOF and won a playoff game as a 49ers QB in 7 years and a playoff game as Chiefs QB in 5 years.

Eli Manning is more mercurial. But he has won 2 Super Bowls and 8 playoff games total in 14 seasons as Giants QB. He could get in the HOF. I’d say right now it’s iffy.

I’m guessing Daniel Jones hopes to be more like Eli than Alex.

NHChiefsfan
NHChiefsfan

Actually the opposite. Green would have played well especially having the Defenses that Alex benefited from while Alex would have struggled mightily on Green’s team because the Defenses would have had him fall behind and with Smith’s overly conservative play-style he would be constantly losing.

probablyamistake
probablyamistake

Unbelievable. We have the best QB in the league and you Yahoos still have to go after Alex. Pathetic.

Berserker
Berserker

Oh, Alex is far from the only former Chiefs QB we talk about….

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He just happens to be the one that YOU pay attention to, and can’t let go.

ChiefArrowhead
ChiefArrowhead

Getting thiggy wit it!

MasterChief
MasterChief

Alex will always be a Chief (and currently my 3rd favorite Chiefs QB of all time). I’m pretty sure we all love the man for the man he is, but fans are gonna be obnoxious and talk shit; it’s what we do.

Alex is hundreds of times richer than any of us, is married to an NFL cheerleader, and is probably smarter and in better shape than most of us too, so he always has those things. It sounds like you need a nice, relaxing weekend, brother.

KC Dude (A.K.A Zif)

Today was just a dumpster fire. We really need to look into putting that damned red button in a locked box so no one can ever press it again. The fire started half an hour before I got to work with an email from the plant manager not being able to boot his laptop, and proceeded to go down hill from there. Apparently the latest Windows updates didn’t play nice with disk encryption and rendered a bunch of laptops un-bootable. Finally got the plant managers laptop up and running a half hour after I was supposed to leave for the day. Some good did come from this though. The plant manager is having someone pick him up a couple of cases of yuengling and told me that if I could get him up and running without losing any of his data he would give me a few bottles.

01lowbird

18 points at home, and ill see myself out again

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

31-10 at halftime in Indianapolis. Lost the 2nd half 35-13.

BleedingRedAndGold

Turf Monster feasted on Chiefs players on that day,

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Tell me how it’s ok to play in that stadium, but hard Mexican dirt is somehow worse?

Berserker
Berserker

I remember watching a couple past NFL games that were played in Azteca, the complaint wasn’t that the turf was hard. It was that the turf was too soft and getting all torn up by the second half because it wasn’t meant for that kind of traffic.

I’d guess maybe what the players really didn’t want to deal with was the Mexico City air, and they used the turf as a convenient excuse. Although the turf wasn’t very good, either.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

I don’t pretend to know the real story, I just find the turf excuse hard to believe when they allow them to play in Oakland and Indianapolis. Those fields are terrible.

legal_kush
legal_kush

running back wide open down the sideline nothing but the goal line ahead of him… settled for FG and lost by one

vvet818
vvet818

to be labeled as the next Alex Smith be like…….

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ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Daniel Jones is coming into a different situation. He has already worked with Eli Manning in the past , and they share a coach. Daniel Jones also has a unbelievably good running back to help him out in the backfield. I didn’t watch very much Duke football, but I don’t think Daniel Jones is as fast as Alex Smith either.

Team Player
Team Player

Jones=Eli
Haskins=Alex

slackator
slackator

Steven A is that you? Haskins had like 100 yards rushing for his entire college career and threw for more yards and TDs in 1 year than Alex and his entire collegiate career. Im not sold on Haskins at all but it what world is Haskins comparable to Alex Smith?

Berserker
Berserker

Weird, I was just thinking the next Alex Smith is probably Dwayne Haskins. What does that make me more of, woke or racist?

The reason Alex didn’t have Eli’s luck in the playoffs is because he didn’t try enough of those Tyree type plays to ever have the opportunity for one to work out for him. He sabotaged his own opportunity to be lucky. Basically the same reason that the Chiefs were the NFL’s “unluckiest” team at finding a franchise QB for 35 years. It’s not about luck; it’s about balls.

Tony Sommer

The problem is that Smith scored more points per game in the playoffs than Eli did. It wasn’t just him not being aggressive enough, it’s that when Smith scores 16 points against the Steelers they score 18 and he loses, but when Eli scores 17 points against New England they score 14 and he wins.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

The problem is Alex Smith would never throw that 3rd down pass to David Tyree, and the Giants would have lost the Super Bowl 14-10.

Tony Sommer

Smith was never in the situation where he was sitting on 10 points and needed a lucky fluke play to get to 17. The fewest points he ever scored in a playoff game was 16, and that would have been 17 if it wasn’t for the 2 point conversion attempt.

Smith isn’t the greatest QB ever, but it’s an objective fact that he was unlucky in the playoffs, especially compared to Eli.

Berserker
Berserker

Really? You’re trying to objectively define luck now?

And claiming that Alex never needed to make a lucky comeback drive?

Berserker
Berserker

So Alex hurts his defense?

Seriously though, you have to know that’s a terrible thought process, trying to equate completely different situations. Where Eli’s offense scored 17 against NE, Alex’s offense likely scores 10. Where Alex’s offense scores 16 against Pitt, Eli’s offense likely scores 21, or gets another first down that prevents Pitt’s offense from having time to kick another FG.

Tony Sommer

Smith scored more points per game and had better stats in the playoffs than Eli did.

Just one example, Eli never won a playoff game where his opponent scored more than 20 points, while Smith beat New Orleans when they scored 32 points.

Berserker
Berserker

So would you rather have Smith than Eli, if your team was going against an evenly matched team in the playoffs?

The NO playoff game is an old meme. Everybody here has already heard umpteen times how SF won that game by taking the ball away five times.

Tony Sommer

Smith, but they’re roughly equal.

If you don’t like that stat, then how about TD/INT ratio? A lot of people like that.

Alex Smith: 14/2 (7 games)
Eli Manning: 18/9 (12 games)

So Smith has more TD’s per playoff game than Eli does. And that doesn’t even count Smith’s rushing TD, while Eli has way more interceptions.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

I know I’d rather have 2 Super Bowl rings than 0.
Take more risks, get more rewards.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Smith scored 0 Touchdowns in the 4th Quarter of Playoff games against:
Giants
Colts
Texans
Patriots
Steelers
Titans.

6 out of 7, no passing or rushing TD in the 4th quarter. That’s a problem.

By comparison, Mahomes already has 2 4th quarter TDs in 2 games.

Berserker
Berserker

They are far from equal. Alex tries to be a reliable cog in the machine, while Eli tries to make a difference.

Ironically, Alex’s approach leads to superior individual stats, while Eli’s approach leads to improbable Championships for his team.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Alex’s style leads to wins a majority of the time, but the playoffs aren’t the majority of the time. The playoffs are you’re playing one of the best 7 teams.

I don’t know enough about Daniel Jones to predict his success, but I will be watching his 4th quarter stats.

Berserker
Berserker

Well, wins a majority of the time when he’s on a team that’s decisively better than a majority of teams. That’s why he had “bad luck” in the playoffs, because his team was no longer decisively better than the competition (except once with 5 takeaways, and once with Hoyer). And he didn’t try hard enough to give his team a needed advantage in those situations for fear that he’d fail, and be seen as the reason that his team lost.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

I became curious and looked at a few more 2004 QBs and who i consider elite QBs to compare their 4th Quarter TD production (passing & rushing)

Drew Brees 145
Tom Brady 129
Eli Manning 114
Aaron Rodgers 103
Ben Roethlisberger 100
Philip Rivers 93
Alex Smith 53
Patrick Mahomes 11

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Alex Smith has scored 2 TDs (1 passing, 1 rushing) in the 4th Quarter of 7 Playoff games. Eli Manning has scored 6 TDs (6 passing) in the 4th Quarters of 12 playoff games.

Over their entire careers, Eli Manning has 114 total touchdowns in the 4th quarter and overtime. Alex Smith has 53 total 4th Quarter and OT TDs.

My point is their QB styles lead to different end game actions and results.

slackator
slackator

I love that Alex Smith gets credit for FGs and Defensive Tds

BleedingRedAndGold

Since I think a QB should get credit for game-winning or -tying FGs, since it’s on the QB to get them into range for the attempt with the right amount of time remaining for it. And since these sorts of drives matter at the end of the first half, if of somewhat lesser importance, they should be credited to the QB, as well. Of course, tying down how many of those a QB has would take a lot of work.

But even going through the stats for the QBs being compared takes some doing, and it’s a generalized discussion anyway, so I’m ok with just counting up points. For more serious analysis, I might want to quantify something in the matter you suggest, but if you want to get serious, you have to put some brain sweat into it. And speaking generally toward a common practice on the internet, looking up stats that support your argument won’t break a brain sweat.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

I had no idea what the 4th Quarter TDs for any of these guys were coming into this discussion today. I just started thinking about the pass to Plaxico Burress to beat the 18-0 Patriots and Alex Smith not scoring against the Colts or Titans in the 4th in response to Tony’s comments and went from there.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Combined 4th Quarter Comebacks & Game Winning Drives, Career Regular Season & Playoffs
Same QB list as TDs list earlier, same order:

Drew Brees 87
Tom Brady 101
Eli Manning 73
Aaron Rodgers 37
Ben Roethlisberger 80
Philip Rivers 58
Alex Smith 42
Patrick Mahomes 5

slackator
slackator

Does the QB get credit for game losing FGs as well, by that I mean the times mostly when it mattered and in the playoffs QB A drives teams to score TDs and QB B drives teams to only kick FGs and misses potential game winning TDs because hes to busy looking down at his feet and noticing he has no testicles

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

I’m not going to tally up Game Losing field goals, but I think we can all guess who would be first out of the QBs mentioned.

Texas Chief
Texas Chief

Right, that’s the crux of the reason I discount the argument that the QB should get credit for FG’s (as a positive).
To me, a FG is (more often than not) a negative. Sure, it’s better than no points at all (in the same way that a cold, stale, unfrosted pop tart is better than no breakfast at all) but it’s the epitome of an offense settling for what they can get, instead of taking what they need. That’s Smiths entire NFL career…..settling as opposed to going for it.

I’m of the opinion that Alex Smith would sit at a poker table, and if dealt 5,6,7,8 (all spades) and the 5 of hearts…. He’s the kind of guy that would call (never raise) and then hold the pair of 5’s every time. Will you statistically end up with a better hand by holding the pair of 5’s every time? Sure you will. Is that hand statistically likely to win the pot? No, no it’s not. You’re likely to end up with a middling hand that doesn’t win, but it’s not the worst hand at the table.

That’s Alex Smith and his stat lines. He holds the middling hand. If you just list out all the poker hands he’s ever had at the reveal (end game stats) … He looks like a decent enough QB. Compared to some he looks well above average. But he’s not going to be the guy raking in the big pot, because his play is just too conservative and too safe.

ArrowheadRed
ArrowheadRed

Alex Smith’s father was a Head Coach/ HS Principal from Idaho. His mother is also from Idaho. Alex was born in 1985 when his parents were in their 40s. That means Papa Smith learned his football in the Idaho of the 1950s and 60s.

I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to imagine Alex was initially trained to play a very conservative, ball control brand of football. Plus, in high school he had Reggie Bush to lean on. He probably didn’t need to take chances for a W.

We know all about who Eli Manning’s parents are. We know Eli grew up in the shadows of 2 brothers who were seen as better QB prospects. Eli had to be aggressive to be noticed. My guess is he was probably always behind when competing against Cooper and Peyton. He went to Dad’s alma mater. Same football conference as legendary big brother. Always proving himself.

I don’t know anything about Daniel Jones’ upbringing, but I did see Cutcliffe encourage the Giants to pick him.
David Cutcliffe coached both Mannings and Daniel Jones. Cutcliffe says Jones is tough, athletic, smart, good leader, and will be good in the NFL. We will see.

Texas Chief
Texas Chief

I’m not sure how the proposed reasons why alex is conservative and eli is less so have anything to do with the discussion.

If we accept your premise, and add in the shoulder injury and a head coach (Harbaugh) that emphasized to Smith that not screwing up was more important than making something happen…. we don’t change the conclusion.

Taking calculated risks, and scoring TD’s produces better results (assuming SB’s are the goal) than playing it safe and settling for field goals.

The reason why Alex is the way he is doesn’t change who he is.

Berserker
Berserker

And then you gotta be careful about those FGs that follow a takeaway and/or long return. Especially if the ensuing offensive drive actually loses yards…

legal_kush
legal_kush

“woke” is a weird meme.
past tense of a verb you do not experience occuring until it has already happened.
I find it odd.
awoke (to wake) is the present tense, but only observable by another…
this rabbit hole might require some time.