Odds and (Burnt) Ends: Orchestrating Maneuvers in the Offseason

 15 replies

BRAG offers his GPS for navigating the offseason.

I’m afraid writing this has been on hold for (quite) a while, but time marches forward, and the draft’s just around the corner, let’s get on with the orchestral maneuvers, shall we?

It’s that time of the year again, when hope and optimism are reborn once again. Free agency and the draft, of course, what did you think I was talking about? Anyhoo, I didn’t come here to talk about the draft, or even to sing a song about Alice. Or at least, the draft’s a part of today’s topic, but it isn’t the focal point, and we’re now well into the FA zone.

Embed from Getty Images

You see, at this time every year fans are looking at the problems they see with their teams and working out how to address them. Normally, and this year’s no exception, these solutions are framed in a free-agency point of view or a draft view. But there’s a problem with over-compartmentalizing when thinking about the off season. Free agency, the draft, UDFAs (Uff da! as they say up here) and roster cut-down dates are all separate things, but they are also all interrelated, so isolating one out and ignoring the others (easy way) is likely to have skewed results. Gotta keep the others in mind, too, even if you don’t discuss them directly.

We as fans like to compartmentalize things like FA and the draft because it simplifies things. Nothing wrong with that, but the trap is in trying to “plug the holes” in one of the options isolated, without consideration for the others. It’s not an either-or thing, not if you’re someone like Veach. If you’re assembling a roster, you need a more holistic approach. If you look at the FA moves by Veach this offseason, you’ll see that he hasn’t been ignoring the offense.

Embed from Getty Images

Furthermore, since we aren’t someone like Veach, we don’t have a team of people researching who’s going to be available in free agency as well as a team on the draft doing much the same thing, plus the input from the coaching staff, as well. Further, there’s almost certainly some who are on both teams as well as specialists who are more tightly dialed in on specifics.

Why does this all matter? Because when it comes to things like mock drafts, it’s important to not get too locked into that compartment by trying to do it all (In our case, the “all” is “Fix the Defense.”) in one compartment, i.e. the Draft or free agency. There will be a slew of opportunities to shore up both sides of the ball, so getting bent out of shape because the FO does something like pick a OT or other O-side player early in the draft will be a bit silly. While they will likely emphasize the D for this Draft, I don’t expect them to go 100% on that side of the team unless there are no opportunities to get a value pick with an Offensive player.

Then again, I’m not going to panic if they do go 100% D in the draft, because I know there will be opportunities to add to the O in the future. The key to it all is mental flexibility, and it’s hard to have that when you’re cramped into a tight little compartment.

So does that mean you have to embrace the holistic approach for mocks and such? Of course not, let’s don’t be silly about that. Draft forecasting is hard enough for the professionals, so it’s reasonable for us amateurs to simplify things, so go right ahead with that.

The main message here is to not forget that your simplified solution isn’t a stand-alone RL thing, because the reality is that personnel moves are all interrelated – so don’t freak out if Veach grabs, say, an OT in the first round if one of the better ones unexpectedly drops into range for him. He still has a lot to learn about his job, but leaving aside outliers like Hitch, it’s pretty clear that Veach likes to go for value, and in any way he can find it. Bringing in former first-rounders who’ve come available on the cheap is one example, and poaching Buttkicker.com is another.

So have fun playing the GM game, just keep in mind that the way we look at it isn’t what “ought to be”, so if the Chiefs go a different route from such predictions, that isn’t necessarily a mistake on Veach’s part. Doesn’t mean he can’t make a mistake in the upcoming draft, but it’s well known that the draft’s always got an element of chance to it, and nobody can be called a solid lock to succeed to expectation. The roster isn’t set, and there will be opportunities to make personnel moves right up until the trade deadline. Up until that time, there will be plenty to discuss, and to this point our community does plenty of that in what’s probably the most fun and civilized comment sections on the internet. Kudos all around.

15
Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
4 Comment threads
11 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
6 Comment authors
mgraftonSpiderHawaiiFiveOhstarry1Team Player Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
mgrafton
mgrafton

Well said – Agree 100%. Gotta keep an open mind about all the moves/changes. Some people love draft picks, some people love proven free agents. Some want to stack the O, some want to shore up the D. The key is balance and finding the right guys, at the right spot, at the right time. The money, draft capital, etc. will all work itself out. Like you said, it’s fun to play GM, but it’s more fun to be a fan and enjoy the ride!

starry1
starry1

That’s hard to do when you have no trust in the GM. Veach hasn’t earned that trust from me yet and its really starting to look like he won’t.

starry1
starry1

Tony. TONY!!! Did you make a BBQ video this weekend, or did you get too busy and forget?

Just FYI, while we are on BBQ talk, I’m going to check out Lockhart, TX, the apparent Mecca of BBQ in the state in the next few weeks. If there is any interest I was thinking of doing a comparison write-up between a couple of the supposed best places in Texas versus KC BBQ.

HawaiiFiveOh
HawaiiFiveOh

I’m interested

Team Player
Team Player

Me too

But Tony appears to be missing. Not even a gloat during the bonfire reaction

(Pretty sure he said something yesterday about being busy today. Rotten timing)

Team Player
Team Player

At least we don’t need the pitchforks for a center.