New Era Wednesday Open Thread

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Yup. Here’s your open thread. If you need me, I’ll be screaming into a pillow for the next couple hours.

What to do with your 29, 50 and 55 jersey

Likely the last Scouting Report Video we do

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BleedingRedAndGold

Anyone still standing can find refuge in the Afternight thread.

upamtn

today I learned that the value of Pi has been worked out to over 2.4 Trillion decimal places …

wonder how much many pencils and paper he went thru? and that had to take awhile, too!

legal_kush
legal_kush

It is so easy (lazy) to say the direction the Chiefs are going on defense is wrong. Weird, when everyone (almost) agreed that the way we WERE doing it didn’t work.

Leaf
Leaf

It cracks me up that all the moves that have been made, were ones that most thought needed to be made to move this defense forward. Now that they have been made everyone is singing a different song.

wustl_chiefs_fan

Watching the Colts-Texans playoff game, and Mathieu gives up a catch twice on the first drive. Maybe it’s because I’m a homer, but to me it seemed more like the right offensive play call against the defense that was called rather than him getting truly beat.

One he gave up a first down after his guy ran all the way across the field and Mathieu had to navigate around defenders. The other was a TD that was a pick play against man, which is always tough.

wustl_chiefs_fan

2nd drive was a lot better. Didn’t give up any catches, and made some nice plays against the run.

wustl_chiefs_fan

3rd drive had the worst play I’ve seen from him (this is the 3rd game I’ve watched), where he got straight up beat 1-on-1 for a 1st down.

upamtn

so, what are you saying? that a guy making $12M/year can be beaten???

wtf are we spending that kind of money if he’s not a true football god?!?

oh, the pain!

wustl_chiefs_fan

Yeah I like to nitpick, the fact that this is one of the rare time he truly got beaten is a good sign. Reminds me of why I was so confident about Mahomes last offseason, I watched that Denver game over and over and found that I really had to stretch to find something to criticize.

Mathieu isn’t that level of absurdly good, but he still is very good and worthy of being paid top dollar. His biggest strength is simply helping to clean up other people’s messes, which we could have really used last year.

Mitko
Mitko

Yeah, but how’s his Achilles look?

wustl_chiefs_fan

We’re going to be like Cotton Hill on King of the Hill, except where he’s obsessed with shins we’ll be obsessed with heels.

wustl_chiefs_fan

Another bad play, he got juked on a run play where he allowed an extra 5-10 yards. On the other hand, the fact that these negative plays are noteworthy is a good sign.

wustl_chiefs_fan

Finished the game. It was his worst one by far, but still had a lot of really positive plays.

Snafu
Snafu

That was the game Texans fans were bitching about when we signed him.

wustl_chiefs_fan

I can see why, it’s always those high profile games you get judged on. But in the context of the 3 games I watched, he had very few bad plays, especially compared to the large number of very good plays he had.

RDD India
RDD India

Live!

RDD India
RDD India

Haven’t heard anything on Bailey. Crossing fingers.

upamtn

I’m beginning to think Tony’s just BS’ing about the Defense being worse just to troll y’all and drive up comment numbers … smart guy that Tony!

MidKan Chiefs Lifer
MidKan Chiefs Lifer

I would say he learned that from Pete but Petey didn’t comment he tweets so all the important people can see.

Just being a smartass, if I thought he was like Pete I wouldn’t be here.

upamtn

what’s a tweet?

Tyrone
Tyrone

comment image

KC_SunDevil
KC_SunDevil

He just needs time. He’s day to day.

Too soon?

upamtn

well, I haven’t heard anything about having “the procedure” done …

probablyamistake
probablyamistake

Where am I and what the hell just happened?

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91

I stared blankly at my screen for about 10 minutes when I read that we cut EB. I knew it was a possibility but damn.

upamtn

go-sal will tellya that I did the same thing when Pioli came in and they cut #54 (Brian Waters) … I was pissed, I was devastated and then some … seriously, I was about as livid as it gets

sal and a couple others talked me back off the ledge (and I was close to jumping, for realz … only 6 inches, but still)

upamtn

Houston and Berry cut, Ford traded, Mathieu and a coupla other guys signed … more updates “as they happen” … stay tuned, sports fans!

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91

Decided to get back into an old hobby; studying the occult.

CHIEFSandSABRES

Interesting. Any good books you’d suggest? I’ve been studying the Civil War a lot lately. Just got my latest book “Hardtack and Coffee” in the mail today. Suppose to be a living memoir from a dude who served, but I think after this book, just like the seasons, I’m going to need a genre change.

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91

Can never go wrong with anything by Aleister Crowley.

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91
legal_kush
legal_kush

Good for you.
I love pagan cultures, but
the occult is more obscure for me because, imo, it gives too much credence to the “divine” in opposition.

ForeverRanger91
ForeverRanger91

Been studying the occult, supernatural, religion, etc for close to 12 years.

legal_kush
legal_kush

I think that’s great.
Most just take the spoon fed to them. Then either take offense when reality shatters illusions or dig deep and consider the possibilities.

SuperMegaChief
SuperMegaChief

It’s on days like today that I am reminded of a saying my grandpa used to say. He used to say, “Everything eventually changes, except for you. You’ll always be a disappointment.” He also used to say “There’s nothing relaxing about a laxative” so you can tell what kind of guy he was.

wustl_chiefs_fan

I was playing around with my 2018 season data spreadsheet, and ran into something surprising. I was seeing how passing Y/A, interception percentage, and sack percentage correlate with wins, and I found that the latter two correlate well, but Y/A didn’t correlate at all. This was surprising, since every other variation I’ve run has shown it to correlate.

Then I realized I had accidentally used rushing Y/A instead of passing. It was nice that my mistake further confirmed the uselessness of the run game.

wildcats137
wildcats137

Hey, question: I believe in another post you mentioned that Rush Y/A allowed correlated to W/L but offensive Rush Y/A didn’t, how is that possible? In my mind, it’s linked to a binary outcome, one team gets a 1, the other a 0, so intuitively to me it seems like if it correlates for the defensive end, it should correlate from the offensive end too.

P.S. I’m a Data Analyst with a degree in Industrial Mathematics that aspires to be a data scientist, so I gobble up everything you mention about this spreadsheet 🙂

wustl_chiefs_fan

I used to think that way too, but it turns out that offense and defense really are different, and it makes sense when you think about it the right way. It’s a bit hard to explain though.

I think the easiest way is to think about field goal percentage. I bet that correlates with wins, but what about field goal percentage against? Obviously a kicker has a lot of control over how good they are at kicking field goals, but there’s not really a whole lot a defense can do to affect that number. Pretty much all field goal defenses are the same ability, while filed goal kicking on offense can vary.

So what that difference shows us is that a good rushing offense doesn’t really exist, but a good rushing defense does. All NFL rushing offenses are roughly equal, so they don’t effect the game much, but your rushing defenses vary in quality.

The same goes for offense and defense as a whole. Statistically offense is much more important than defense (which is why we went 12-4 with a good offense and bad defense), mainly because your offense depends so much on one guy (the QB), while defense depends on a lot of different guys, so there’s way more variance in the offenses than defenses. If you improve your offensive rank from 20 to 10 that improves your team a lot more than improving your defense from 20 to 10.

wildcats137
wildcats137

Interesting . . . so the answer is basically that there’s much more variance in rush defense than rush offense?

Is this an example of Simson’s Paradox then?

wustl_chiefs_fan

I assume so, I haven’t actually looked.

Not quite I don’t think. I don’t know if this concept has a name, it’s just a feature of variance. You have to lists of 32 numbers, if List A has a higher variance than List B, then List A will have a bigger impact on A+B.

KC_SunDevil
KC_SunDevil

Standard deviation?

wustl_chiefs_fan

Basically the same thing. Standard deviation is the square root of variance. Variance is just quicker to type 🙂

KC_SunDevil
KC_SunDevil

I wasn’t sharpshooting (for once). Truth be told while I may have an inherent understanding of the principles I never had a DiffyQ class and wouldn’t even recognize a differential equation if I saw one.

But I do have a natural ability to recognize patterns and I get the basic idea of calculus (acceleration versus velocity)

Teach away. I’m a sponge.

wildcats137
wildcats137

gotcha. with you now.

upamtn

what about improving the Defense from (what seemed like) about 500 to … say … 20?

Tyrone
Tyrone

lel, so did it correlate well in your data?

I think I remember you using that mistake as evidence of something recently though?😬

wustl_chiefs_fan

This is something I just ran today. When I put in passing Y/A it correlated well like always.

What I was trying to determine tonight was if it was better to use NY/A or if using Y/A and sack percentage was better. Turns out their very close to equal, but NY/A was slightly better. This surprised me, I was expecting sack percentage to do better.

Tyrone
Tyrone

Maybe I’m thinking about what was mentioned below re: the defensive rush Y/A

BigBill
BigBill

What are the teams needs as of right now in decreasing order of importance?

wustl_chiefs_fan

We definitely need some CB’s.

BigBill
BigBill

If we got Ronald Darby, would that take care of the CB need or do we need to get another guy?

BoJest
BoJest

Where does Darby play…out or slot? If out I think the Chiefs would be fine with Darby/Ward and Fuller in the slot where he plays the best. Would need a couple decent ones maybe from the draft.

Mitko
Mitko

Outside from what I’ve seen mostly. Typically on the #1 OBJ and Julio

BigBill
BigBill

Nice

Chiefsfan115
Chiefsfan115

Darby plays outside. If Darby signs, we still need another starter.

wustl_chiefs_fan

I’d argue we need 2, last year Nelson and Fuller were our only two legitimate starting corners, and we just lost Nelson. You really need 3 guys the way the NFL works now.

We also need another safety and a DE. So by my count we have 4 holes on defense. We will probably have a subpar guy at CB3 again, and probably one of those other 3 we’ll be hoping a young guy steps up.

Mattl
Mattl

Well…..if we signed Darby, couldn’t he and Ward start, with Fuller in the slot? Plus we add one in the first 3 rounds of the draft. We’d be in decent shape if Ward continues to improve.

BigBill
BigBill

I’ve been impressed with Ward. If he continues to improve he’ll be a great find.

Mattl
Mattl

I agree. He’s got decent size too, which supposedly Spagnuolo likes (aside from Mathieu, evidently!). If he can be a solid starter for us, that’d be a GREAT addition.

wustl_chiefs_fan

Yeah, I’d consider Ward a young guy we hope can step in. He did well, but how many times have we seen a young CB come in and do well for a couple games before falling apart?

Mattl
Mattl

That’s true, but I kind of feel like many of us (myself included) overreacted when Marcus Cooper had a few interceptions. Play for play, he was never that good. I think Ward has already made some good strides and looks more legit than Cooper ever did (just using Cooper as an example, of course). Imagine if our new coaching staff can accelerate Ward’s progress.

dave9600
dave9600

Don’t forget about Watts.

wustl_chiefs_fan

He’s in the “”young guy who steps up” category. He still needs to show he can play at a high level consistently before we can trust him.

Fire_FG_the_moron
Fire_FG_the_moron

1. Defense
2. Defense
3. Defense
4. Defense
5. Defense
6. Defense
7. Defense
8. O line

Coincidentally that covers our total of draft picks this year.

Mattl
Mattl

Boy, are you going to be ticked when we draft a WR and TE. 🙂

slackator
slackator

well we need a TE, the WR had better have something uncoachable to be drafted in my opinion

oof46
oof46

The cooties?

Mattl
Mattl

Other than Hill (who we’re clearly going to extend), we have no experienced WR under contract after next year. (Technically Sammy Watkins is, but there’s no chance we’ll keep him past this season at his current cap number.) We need to draft a WR now to ensure that Mahomes has the weapons he needs.

1wombat
1wombat

Mahomes lS the weapons we need.

Mattl
Mattl

Look what happened to Aaron Rodgers when he didn’t have good WR. I love Mahomes, but we’ve got to keep him well-stocked with weapons.

Tyrone
Tyrone

So you’re saying we’re definitely eating the $7 million dead money in 2020 for Watkins? Ouch.

dave9600
dave9600

Maybe Benjamin sticks around in a TE role…

slackator
slackator

wouldnt be the worst thing, although Id prefer to try for one in the draft first

Fire_FG_the_moron
Fire_FG_the_moron

I couldnt care less who they draft, so long as it makes the team better. Whether its a K, P, OL, LB, they better help going forward or Veach can GTFO.

Mattl
Mattl

I’m just teasing you.

SCKSChief
SCKSChief

And a RB. LOL

1wombat
1wombat

I’m gonna say CB>SAM>OL>DL

Mitko
Mitko

So if the reports are true what franchised pass rusher do you think the Chiefs are going for?

BigBill
BigBill

Frank Clark. Hopefully not Clowney.

Mattl
Mattl

I’d love Clowney, but man he’s going to be expensive.

BigBill
BigBill

What’s your thoughts about Clowney? I’ve only seen him when he played against us.

Mattl
Mattl

I only get to see him play a few times each year. And I know some people think he’s overrated due to a couple highlight reel plays in college. But I just feel like with his size/speed combination, the right DC could terrorize offenses with him.

BigBill
BigBill

thanks

Mitko
Mitko

DeMarcus Lawrence?

Mattl
Mattl

He’s really ticked at Dallas right now. He’s great, but like Clowney, is going to be expensive. $100 million, I bet.

BigBill
BigBill

How many years do you think would be associated with the $100 M price?

Mattl
Mattl

Totally a guess, but I imagine 5-6. The number that matters, of course, is the guaranteed amount. I’d bet Clowney and Lawrence (if they get extensions) both get guarantees north of $50 million.

upamtn

I’d far rather trade up in the draft and get one of the top guys there instead of overpaying for Clowney or anyone else … bloated contracts got the team into the bloated contract mess to begin with, why go down the same path all over again?

Mattl
Mattl

I’d love to get one of the top guys….but I’m not sure we can move up that far without giving up too much. We had to include a 3rd and a future 1st to move from 27 to 10. To go from 29 to mid teens (which is where I’m guessing we’d need to get) would cost almost as much.

Having said that, man, Brian Burns looks awesome.

upamtn

our current 1st and a future 3rd and/or 2nd works for me … if there’s a guy up there that merits the trade … quality, not quantity

now, I do understand that it’s a crap shoot … but I’d rather my guys do their homework and then take a chance on greatness than sit back and take their chances with fewer options

it’s all about having options

Chickennpickles
Chickennpickles

I wonder how far we could move up if we swapped 1sts & gave up our extra 2nd from this year & the extra 2nd next year?

upamtn

you gotta look at the “trade value charts” … but a coupla 2’s would get KC up to Top Ten territory (roughly)

Mattl
Mattl

I don’t think what you suggested would be enough to move up too far. However, Veach has certainly shown that he’s willing to give up picks to get guys he likes, so who knows?

Chickennpickles
Chickennpickles

What would you be willing to give up to get one of the top 2/3 guys?

Mattl
Mattl

Wow, that’s a tough one. If we’re talking about a guy that we think is going to be a legit elite pass rusher, I guess I’d give up one of our 2nds, plus a 2nd next year. But that’s just off the top of my head.

Chickennpickles
Chickennpickles

Yeah, I think a swap of 1sts & this year’s & next years extra 2nd rounders would be as far as I’d want to go to grab a Burns or Allen. I’m assuming Bosa, Allen & Williams will all be gone before 10. If we had a chance to grab one of them, I’d have no problem doing it.

BigBill
BigBill

Trade 1sts and give up this year’s later 2nd. But the price would depend on what I thought that the other GMs would draft.

KCChef
KCChef

” Nahhhh Fellas … It’s All About Ball Bearings These Days …”

comment image

BigBill
BigBill

I’d be alright with that, depending on the price.

Fire_FG_the_moron
Fire_FG_the_moron

Isnt he a cowpoke???? I dont want any more Dallas sloppy seconds. I’ll pass.

slackator
slackator

you dont want a 26 year old DE who had 64 tackles and 10.5 sacks last year simply because he played for Dallas? I know where youre coming from but this guy isnt sloppy seconds hes first in line to board the train

Fire_FG_the_moron
Fire_FG_the_moron

Considering the price to get him, IF it happened, that better be one hungry, inspired and motivated sumbitch come september.

oof46
oof46

It certainly is a new era. I hope this all works out.

Hopeful Fingers Crossed GIF by truTV’s Those Who Can’t - Find & Share on GIPHY

upamtn

so does Veach

wustl_chiefs_fan

In non-free agency news, I ordered some 2 Ton epoxy on Amazon because I was too lazy to go to the store. It said it was going to arrive between the 14th and 18th, but then when I go into details it says it was delivered today. It’s not on my porch, I’ve never had packages stolen, and I was home all day and never heard anybody come up the steps (which I usually hear), so I don’t think it was delivered and then stolen. I have had packages delivered to the wrong address before though, so that’s possible. Or maybe their shipping info got confused.

Regardless, I didn’t feel like going through the work of finding it, and Ace just happened to send me a $5 off coupon yesterday, and Westlake Ace Hardware was on the way to the Chinese restaurant I was going to get lunch at, so I bought it at the store.

Then I ran into another problem. On an average day I do 100-300 calories on this pedal bike, and despite my best efforts to put as little pressure on the pedal as possible it got worn to the point where there’s a significant gap, so it didn’t fit firmly even when putting the epoxy in. So I had to find a way to keep it fairly level, which was tough because of it’s odd shape but I got it close.

Now I have to wait until tomorrow to see if it even worked.

KC_SunDevil
KC_SunDevil

Typically I get a picture of the package posted on amazon after a delivery

wustl_chiefs_fan

It was USPS. I had something else shipped separately by Amazon and I heard that delivery coming.

Nasrani
Nasrani

It may come tomorrow – it may have been “out for delivery” but was misplaced. I’d give them 3-4 days and then if nothing happens maybe get in touch with your local post office and see if you can find it.

This has happened to me multiple times; an item will say “delivered” but won’t get to my house until the next day.

wustl_chiefs_fan

That’s what I also thought. If so I guess I’ll have plenty of 2 ton epoxy.

upamtn

how much will 2 ton epoxy hold?

wustl_chiefs_fan

1.5 tons

pompano
pompano

of what?

pompano
pompano

of what?

BigBill
BigBill

That would depend on the thermodynamics at which the epoxy was originally set and at which thermodynamic conditions the object being held is exposed to.

pompano
pompano

bowling balls at a constant 110 degess?
asking for a friend..

BigBill
BigBill

Celsius or Fahrenheit? 🙂 At 110 F, his balls are going to be stuck together for a long time. At 110 C the amount of adhesion might be low since the epoxy could melt (not sure of m.p. of epoxy, could estimate if had the molecular formula based on intermolecular forces) and run off to the side minimizing contact.

pompano
pompano

either or both,
he travels a lot

pompano
pompano

high heat epoxy then,
thanks

RDD India
RDD India

Yeah. Or how big the bike/ pedal?

BigBill
BigBill

True; I hadn’t thought of that. Surface area would be important as well as that would dictate the volume of epoxy needed for adequate adhesion.

Chickennpickles
Chickennpickles

That’s what I was gonna say. A few times I’ve been told it was out for delivery & it didn’t come for another day or 2.

1wombat
1wombat

I live on Parkway Drive. The next street over is Parkview Drive. USPS screws this up at a high enough rate that I’ve developed a causal relationship with the other address. We usually deliver to each other, or it takes two more days. Never have problems with UPS or FedEx. Weird

wustl_chiefs_fan

In the house I grew up in this was a big problem. But to be fair to the mailman, one street was E 26th Terrace Court S and the next street over was E 26th Street Court S.

The house we shared a number with got our mail all the time, including my acceptance letter at Wash U (which was really more of a package). That was pretty exciting, since it was a package from Wash U I was pretty sure I had gotten in, but I literally had to walk uphill in the snow both ways to find out.

Sudden
Sudden

So roughly $1.5 million freed up per spot down on the 2018 defensive rankings. Addition by subtraction, winning by attrition.

wustl_chiefs_fan

Houston cleared $14 million, Ford cleared $16.5 million, and Berry only cleared $7 million. So a total of $37.5 million cleared this year, with only Berry having an additional $8 million hit next year as well. By my count we added about $16 million in salary between Hyde and Mathieu, so we’ve gained a net of $21.5 million.

In short, we likely have more moves coming.

Mattl
Mattl

Have we gotten a breakdown of Mathieu’s salary details yet?

wustl_chiefs_fan

No, it makes me a little nervous that it hasn’t been officially announced yet.

Mattl
Mattl

Well…..I don’t think he officially signed yet either, so….

TNCHIEFS
TNCHIEFS

We don’t get Berry’s $ till after June 1.

wustl_chiefs_fan

Yeah, it does allow us to go right up to the cap though.

Nasrani
Nasrani

For Eric Berry: This song was put up for Dee Ford on this morning’s thread, but it’s also appropriate here.

Best of luck in all your future endeavors.

ElPasoJason
ElPasoJason

This is going to be a tough off-season to stomach until we’re back to football.

Overall, I think these are the right business decisions but man it is hard to believe right now.

On a side note, I am really going to try to make a weekend at training camp. Where should I stay when I come in town thats cheap and close?

KC_SunDevil
KC_SunDevil

You might try a B&B in Jamesport. It would definitely add a different element to your trip.

ElPasoJason
ElPasoJason

Thanks for the rec! I’ll look into that. Now to convince the qife its better for me to spwnd time with the Chiefs at training camp than her on a cruise.