Have you guys heard yet? Colts are going to beat the Chiefs. That is coming from every media outlet i have come across and for good reason. We are 0-4 against them in the playoffs. In those losses we have had our hearts ripped out into a million pieces by losing in the most bizarre ways. If there was a way to lose, we would be the ones to accomplish it. Not only have we lost to the Colts, but we are winless at arrowhead too. We have lost no matter if we were the number one seed or playing on wild card weekend. That is just what the Chiefs do. There is a reason why we all say the word Chief’d.
Difference is, we now have Mahomes as our Quarterback. Mahomes is our first and only MVP caliber Quarterback. In the past we had guys like Bono, Grbac, Green, Cassel, and Alex Smith. Guys that you had to have a great roster around them to even make it to the playoffs. People seem to leave that part out when talking about our playoff losses. If you mention it to anyone, we are told about how great Luck is and how they have the defense to slow Mahomes down enough to get the win. So how good is this defense that is supposedly going to be able to slow down Showtime Mahomes? If you go by points they are in the top 10 allowing 21 points per game, but as we all know that is only half of the story. We need to take a deeper look to understand how good this defense is and if this is a type of defense that could slow Mahomes down. Below is a table showing teams played with rankings from DVOA along with the performance by the Colts defense against opposing quarterbacks.
You might ask, why am I only showing the Colts defense against opposing quarterbacks? First of all, the quarterback is the engine that makes the Chiefs offense go. We will not be beating the Colts by running the ball. Besides, the Colts have a stout rush defense, which is ranked 4th in the league by DVOA. No what we want to know is if the Chiefs can win by playing the way we have played all year, passing the ball.
As you can see in the table, the colts have only faced one top 5 team. That team was the Patriots with Tom Brady. Brady is also the only top 10 quarterback per DVOA that the Colts have faced all year. They loss that game pretty handily. The only other quarterback that they had faced in the top 15 would have been DeShaun Watson. In the first game, Watson torched them for 375 yards passing. Of course, they were able to do better in the next two. They were really able to shut him down in the wild card round which was probably their finest defensive effort of the year. However it is hard for me to take that game seriously with the Colts playing them twice already and being a divisional match up. In my opinion they are much closer to the defense that played the Texans in the second game then the one in the wild card round.
People will tell you that the Colts are the hottest team right now with winning 10 out of their last 11 games. Lets put that into perspective. As you can see above, the only quarterback in the top 20 of DVOA that they have defeated is Watson. Most of their wins have come against teams with a ranking of 20th or lower. The Giants with a ranking of 13th offensively are the only other team that that the Colts defeated during that stretch in the top 15 of offenses. Only winning the game by one point, 28-27, it isn’t like the Colts whooped up on them either. Giants are only ranked that high by running the ball with Barkley. Eli Manning is the 24th ranked quarterback yet he threw for 309 yards against that “Stout” defense just three weeks ago. During their downward spiral the Jaguars, lead by Cody Kessler, was also able to steal a win from them. I don’t know how you can say a team is hot when they have a loss like that against that bad of a team in so called hot streak. Even if it is their only loss. What other quarterbacks during that streak stands out to you? None, you say? They all suck you say? Those would all be the correct answer.
The Colts team is more like the 2013 Chiefs with playing quarterbacks like Derrick Anderson, Blaine Gabbert, and Cody Kessler. We all knew then that the Chiefs were not as good as their record indicated. Hell the defense we have this year would have finished in the top 15 playing the same schedule as the Colts. Per DVOA they have the 32nd rank schedule, which is dead last. Just take a glance at that table. That’s as easy as it gets in the NFL.
In 12 of the 16 games that the Colts have played during the season, their secondary has allowed the opposing quarterback to throw over their season average. DVOA has them ranked at 20th against the pass. They are really susceptible against Tight ends and running backs out of the back field with rankings of 29th and 25th. Against wide receivers it varies. They are ranked 17th against number one wide receivers, 1st against number 2s, and 13th against number 3s. Throwing to left or middle of the field could be difficult as they are ranked 5th and 15th respectively, however, throwing towards the right side of the field should pay dividends with a ranking of 31st. Teams have also had a very high success rate throwing deep on that side of the field per DVOA.
The Colts defense are great at three things, stopping the run, red zone defense, and turnovers. Their score percentage is at 17 percent with a rank of 7th in TDs and 27th in FGs. They are also ranked 23rd in plays per drive and 24th in top against. Those stats show that they are more of a bend but don’t break defense. This team can definitely can be passed on and has never faced a quarterback like Mahomes. Mahomes ranks number one in all major categories. Keep in mind, even during the “hot streak” the Colts have only played one QB in the top 20 and that guy is in their division. With all the info I have gathered, I have a hard time seeing this team slowing the Chiefs down. Chiefs offense will roll the Colts defense this weekend and I don’t think that the Colts can keep up. Andrew luck also has been pretty bad in the playoffs especially in outdoor games, throwing 2 touchdowns to 8 interceptions with a 50 qb rating. One other stat I’d like to tell you all is that the Colts have lost every game that Luck has been sacked 2 or more times. Chiefs need to get up on them early and let our pass rush get to work.
This season of the Mahomes show will not end on Saturday.
On another note, those of you going to the game. Do not let up no matter the score. Down or up, stay in the game and help our favorite team get a win. It better be record breaking loud there for 4 quarters. This is a new era, the Mahomes era to be exact and we will be breaking all kinds of curses. Do not let the doubt seep in. Its time to show the Nation what its going to be like from here on out in the NFL.