Can Andy Win?

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A FanPost by Mitko:

While past data isn’t always a 100% indicator of future trends, it does give a relatively accurate statistical prediction of the possible outcomes. When it comes to looking at the likelihood of playoff success, the biggest common factors are both coach and quarterback, due to that fact that rest of a team’s 53 man roster vary significantly from year to year. In the case of the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs’ playoff victory chances the only data representative of success or failure falls on Andy Reid’s previous playoff history due to Mahomes having none himself.

To predict the chances of a KC victory with each of the three possible opponents, we will take as much important information from Andy Reid’s previous 13 opening playoff games. Included are both his tenures at Philadelphia and in Kansas City. This includes the results, the round of the playoffs the game took place, whether the game was home or away, the opponents record, the score difference, whether the opposition was a wildcard team or a division champion, and the results of both teams’ regular season matchups, if any.

Why only the first game of each playoff, instead of all of Reid’s post-season results? Well, for two main reasons really. The first is that accumulating the data and factoring in the percentile of victory for each possible opposition in each possible round is, truthfully a bit too time consuming at this stage. Let’s not put the horse ahead of the carriage anyway. The second reason is that many Chiefs fans have been pretty vocal about being satisfied at just participating in the AFC Championship game. While I personally disagree with this assessment, this exercise will be a good indicator of the likelihood of reaching that goal, and possibly allow some people to reassess their expectations.

In order relive those past painful memories as little as possible, Reid’s playoff history results have been put into chart form, with the final scores removed. The red lines are losses, while the green lines are wins.

There are a few interesting points to take away from this.  First of all Andy Reid is 8-5 in his opening games of the playoffs. That’s about a 61.5% win rate. He also currently has a +86 point differential in playoff games. That number is huge. In opening games, Reid has only been blown out once, while also losing by no more than five points in his other four losses. On the other side. Reid has won by more than a touchdown six times, while only winning a game by less than a TD twice.  What does this tell us? Well, two things: Reid almost never gets blown out in the first game, and he struggles to win when it’s a tight game.

This opening playoff game record also shows us that his reputation for choking and not being a good post-season coach is vastly exaggerated. Why is this? Well I believe it is due to the nature of playoff records themselves. Unless a team wins the Superbowl, they are guaranteed a loss. Let’s say the goal of a coach is to be .500 in the post season at the end of their career. All they have to do is win half their games right? Well technically, but not really. Say that a coach wins their first game. That’s great, now if they lose the game after they will be .500, but let’s pretend they lose their first game. That is still ok right? Next year they just have to win one to even it up. Nope. The next year they will have to win at least two because, again unless they win the Superbowl they are inevitably going to end up with an additional loss. Two wins doesn’t seem like much, until you realize that means either a divisional championship or Superbowl appearance.

Anyway, let’s look at the main numbers that pop out in relationship to this year’s playoff chances. (Remember these are from the first game Reid’s teams play only. Nothing additional.) In home games Reid is 6-3, while he is 2-2 away.  In wildcard games he is 5-4, but when the first game is a divisional round match out he is 3-1 (The lone loss being to Pittsburgh two years ago. Sigh.) When the opponent is a wildcard team his record is 5-2, but when faced against a divisional winner he is only 3-3.  When Andy plays a team he beat one or more times in the regular season he is 4-0, but when he loses to a team at least once in the regular season, he is 0-4 in his opening game. He has only ever split regular season games once to a first playoff opponent, the New York Giants, who he then defeated in the playoffs.  Against teams he did not play in the regular season, Reid is 3-1. His lone loss being last year to the Titans. (I’m beginning to see why some Chiefs fans think they are cursed.) Something that is not listed on the chart, but is important, is the fact that Reid is also 3-0 when owning the one seed, which the Chiefs do this year. *Frantically knocks on wood*

For the three possible divisional round opponents next week we can fill in most of the same information as the chart above, save for the results of the playoff game of course.

Now we can fill in Reid’s previous win percentage for each of the above categories along with his overall opening round playoff game win percentage of 61.5% and record as the 1 seed at a perfect 100%. (Note: While Reid is 3-1 against 10-6 clubs, he has never played a 12-4 club or better in his opening game. So instead we’ll use 11-5, in which he is, unfortunately, 0-3.) Then we can average out the numbers to estimate the Chiefs’ win percentage against each opponent.

So according to Reid’s previous history in his first playoff games, the Chiefs have the best chance to beat the Ravens, followed closely by the Colts, and then the Chargers. What do you think? Who would you prefer to face? Do these numbers make you feel better or worse about their next game?

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SCKSChief
SCKSChief

Screwed up and watched some NFL Countdown type shows on my afternoon off. I was feeling pretty good about the game…until my dumb ass watched those idiots.

Falco16
Falco16

Obviously this here post is after the table has been set so….

Thing is by my untrained eye the Ravens were the last team I wanted. Mobile QB and great D. No thank you.

I wanted LA. I think Rivers can be rattled and their D isn’t as good as Baltimore.

I now know we are getting the Colts. I’m anxious AF.

upamtn

silly rhetorical question: of course Reid can win

the only valid question is: will he?

stay tuned, sports fans … the answer in just a bit less than a week

stjoechief
stjoechief

Great breakdown. It confirms my intellectual belief that the Chiefs have an excellent chance of beating whichever poor, doomed team comes to Arrowhead next week. But I’ve been at every Chiefs home playoff game since 2003 so my abused psyche focused on one sentence:

Something that is not listed on the chart, but is important, is the fact that Reid is also 3-0 when owning the one seed, which the Chiefs do this year. *Frantically knocks on wood*

This is the Chiefs. They can fix that. More BHQV, please.

BigRed
BigRed

Awesome post Mitko. With Mahomes at QB, I’m not scared of any team in the playoffs. First time I’ve ever felt this way as a fan of the Chiefs.

BigRed
BigRed

Um…..Yes.

Leaf
Leaf

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BigRed
BigRed

This will always get an upvote.

EAFOX
EAFOX

Cannot answer my own question BUT how often did Andy win/lose against competition that his team was superior to in talent and how often did Andy win/lose against inferior competition.

I look at our last two playoff losses – Losing to Pittsburgh in a close game was frustrating but the Steelers were a superior team BUT losing to the Titans – a team that we were much better than – was heart wrenching.

Patomic Fist

In 2016 they lost to the garbage Titans and garbage Bucs in the regular season. Same score in both games (19 – 17).

That kind of shit happens when you have a QB that likes to try to play the game of “I’m only going to risk just barely what I think I need in order to win the game.”

Leaf
Leaf

That’s what I was going to point out. 60% of Andy’s one and done losses have been with a common denominator that no longer exists on this team.

Falco16
Falco16

Alex couldn’t beat 18 points 4 times that year. 3 at home and one of those was the playoffs.

Suckitude. We no longer have that issue. Now we can put up 50 and the defense can’t hold them to less.

Mitko
Mitko

Can’t really tell you Superior vs Inferior but I can tell you record against higher/lower seeds than what his team was.
Unlike the article, these are from all of his playoff games:
He is 7-6 against lower seeded teams and 4-7 against higher seeded teams

APtransplant25
APtransplant25

Really loved the post, what we have really missed out on these last few games is getting to a big league at the start. Maybe if we can get back to that type of a grove we will be rolling.

NovaChiefs
NovaChiefs

“Let’s not put the horse ahead of the carriage anyway”
That’s the only way the thing works, though

Good read, too

hayoli
hayoli

Really enjoyed the post. At some point the odds have to turn back in our direction and I feel confident Mahomes can get it done. If the defense becomes mediocre we are going to the Super Bowl.

MasterChief
MasterChief

Andy can win with Mahomes on the field.

KC_SunDevil
KC_SunDevil

Love a good fan post. And this one is damned good!

probablyamistake
probablyamistake

Of course he can, he just needs to can Bob.

Chiefsfan115
Chiefsfan115

I believe the Chiefs will win, but the Wins will be due to Mahomes’ talent not solely Andy Reid’s coaching. Look at the end of the Ravens game. The Chiefs won, because Mahomes made a couple of incredible throws. Swap out any other QB KC has ever had and put him in Patrick’s place, Chiefs lose. If the Chiefs lose that close game, Kansas City doesn’t finish with the #1 seed. Look at the Raiders game at Arrowhead. Patrick makes a great play to hit Sherman for a 1st Down on the opening drive. That wasn’t scripted. That was making something out of nothing. Then, look at the 50th TD pass. Robinson was not on a Post or Go route. Robinson improvised, because he was behind the coverage and knew Mahomes could sling it 50 yards. Touchdown. The difference this year is Patrick Mahomes. He has done things no Chiefs QB, feats even no other NFL QB has ever done in just his first year of playing. The Chiefs will go as far as Mahomes goes. Andy Reid will not be the reason the Chiefs defeat any of these teams. Andy Reid thought starting Alex Smith over Nick Foles and Patrick Mahomes in the Playoffs was the right decision. History has proven just the opposite. Andy does a great job of preparing, building a cohesive unit, and disciplining the team. Time after time he has made questionable in game decisions. Patrick Mahomes MUST go off script to win the Super… Read more »

Mitko
Mitko

Something I didn’t mention in the article..
2000-2009 That large chunk of wins was when Reid had McNabb…. Imagine what he can do with Mahomes

Chiefsfan115
Chiefsfan115

Exactly what i was thinking. Most of Reid’s post season success was with McNabb.

Leaf
Leaf

And 60% of his failures were with Smith

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upamtn

so it was Smith and NOT Sutton?

Falco16
Falco16

Did they get beat by 18 points vs Pitt?
Did they go scoreless in the second half vs Tenn?

RDD India
RDD India

And behold, one of the knock on Mahomes coming off college was he looks for big plays and doesn’t always stick to his designated primary. Now if that’s true, MA homie will go rouge and Andy will win. And I don’t think Andy really goes after Mahomes for that either.

starry1
starry1

Nice job, Mitko!

RDD India
RDD India

Mitko, my man, putting statistics in meaningful way and for common simpleton like me, is heck of a intellectual feat in itself. So wonderful job. Only I see clear two parts of Reid’s postseason record. First is green and then red. Red part concerns me but not much, law of average tells me, 8/13 wins will induce some losses in coming year first and then wins again. So this data alone shows we start winning post season in pat’s 3rd or 4th year. However if I apply murphy’s Law, we could win ( in opposite sense). Heck of a job!

Mitko
Mitko

The biggest difference between the Red and the Green: Quarterback
Green: McNabb, McNabb, McNabb, McNabb, McNabb, McNabb, McNabb, A. Smith
Red: McNabb (final Eagle’s season), Vick, A. Smith, A Smith, A. Smith

RDD India
RDD India

Yep. That’s one variable that has highest influence. So are you saying? Avg losses per year over Reid’s lifetime is gonna be zero? I can live with that.

SuperMegaChief
SuperMegaChief

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